本文關鍵詞： 進出口貿易 二氧化碳排放 面板平滑轉移模型 貿易結構　出處：《東北財經大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,溫室氣體的大量排放所導致的全球氣候變暖引起了世界各國的廣泛關注,為改善全球變暖的狀況世界各國紛紛給予高度重視并積極采取措施。由于中國經濟發(fā)展較快,且被稱為“世界加工廠”,一些西方國家紛紛將矛頭指向中國,要求中國承擔大量的碳減排責任。隨著我國進出口貿易的迅速增長,2013年我國己成為全球第一大貨物貿易國。我國的CO2排放居全球首位,但是其中有將近三分之一是由于出口貿易產生的。所以研究進出口貿易的CO2排放效應對于減少我國CO2排放具有重大意義。 根據目前現有文獻,本文發(fā)現國內對于兩者關系的探究大部分集中于估算貿易中含有的碳排放量及運用線性模型從進出口貿易總量或者出口角度考察對外貿易對CO2排放的影響程度,但是鮮有從非線性角度考察進出口貿易的二氧化碳排放效應的實證研究。隨著技術進步和體制變化,樣本數據間有較大的異質性,線性模型很難滿足這一要求,所以本文運用面板平滑轉移模型研究了這一問題。 本文首先分析了我國CO2排放和進出口貿易的現狀,分別從總量情況、行業(yè)分析及國際比較三個角度研究了我國CO2排放的目前狀況；對進出口貿易從總體規(guī)模和貿易結構兩方面分析了目前的現狀；并從統(tǒng)計角度說明我國CO2排放與對外貿易具有相同的變化趨勢。其次從區(qū)域角度分為東部、中部和西部,運用線性模型分別分析了各區(qū)域進口貿易和出口貿易的二氧化碳排放線性效應,并對其經濟意義進行分析。再次對我國總體建立面板平滑轉移模型,分別以貿易規(guī)模和貿易結構為轉移變量,分析了我國進口貿易和出口貿易的二氧化碳排放非線性效應,并分析了估計結果的經濟意義。 本文的主要結論有：目前我國CO2排放的現狀是總量較大,不過人均排放量較低,CO2排放強度較大,顯著高于同期世界平均水平,東部CO2排放總量最大；進出口貿易現狀是對外貿易總額穩(wěn)步增長,近年來貿易結構和貿易方式雖然稍有改善,但是以加工貿易為主導的貿易方式仍未改變。 在不同區(qū)域,進口和出口貿易對CO2排放具有不同影響。東部和中部出口貿易的發(fā)展會導致我國CO2排放的增加,進口貿易的發(fā)展有助于減少我國CO2排放,而西部區(qū)域的進口和出口對CO2排放均沒有顯著影響。 進出口貿易的CO2排放非線性效應顯著,以貿易規(guī)模為轉移變量時,出口會導致國內CO2排放的增加,但是隨著貿易規(guī)模的擴張,出口比重對CO2排放的影響減弱；進口貿易有助于降低我國CO2排放,隨著貿易規(guī)模的擴張,進口貿易的CO2減排效應逐漸增大。以貿易結構為轉移變量時,貿易結構不合理使得出口貿易的CO2排放非線性效應顯著大于線性效應的影響,所以調整貿易結構對于減少我國CO2排放具有重要作用；進口貿易的線性和非線性效應均顯示進口有利于減少我國CO2排放。 根據本文的估計結果,提出了以下政策建議：優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構,推進低碳貿易產業(yè)的發(fā)展；推進技術進步,提高能源利用效率并研發(fā)新能源；對不同的區(qū)域實行不同的貿易政策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a large number of emissions of greenhouse gases caused by global warming has caused widespread concern around the world, for the world to improve the situation of global warming have attached great importance to and actively take measures to China. Due to the rapid economic development, and is known as the "world factory", some Western countries will have to spearhead the Chinese. Requirements Chinese bear a lot of carbon emission reduction responsibility. With the rapid growth of China's import and export trade, in 2013 China has become the world's largest trade in goods. CO2 emissions in China ranks first in the world, but there are nearly 1/3 is due to export production. So the research of CO2 emission effect of import and export trade to reduce CO2 in China is of great significance to emissions.
According to the existing literature, this paper found that the domestic research on the relationship of carbon emissions in the most concentrated trade and estimated by using the linear model containing the total import and export trade or export from the perspective of foreign trade impact on the emission of CO2, but there is little empirical research on the effect of carbon dioxide emissions from the non linear perspective of import and export trade. With the change of technology progress and system, between the sample data are highly heterogeneous, the linear model is very difficult to meet this requirement, so this paper uses the panel smooth on this issue transfer model.
This paper first analyzes the status quo of China's CO2 emissions and import and export trade, separately from the total situation, current situation analysis and the international comparison on the three aspects of industry CO2 emissions in China; the analysis of import and export trade present situation from two aspects of the overall size and trade structure; and from the angle of statistics shows that the emission of CO2 I Chinese and foreign trade has the same trend. Secondly, from the angle of region is divided into eastern, central and western, using the linear model were analyzed by linear effects of carbon dioxide emissions in each region import and export trade, and its economic significance were analyzed. The transfer model again on China's overall building panel smooth, with trade the scale and structure of trade transfer variables, analysis of carbon dioxide emission nonlinear effects of China's import trade and export trade, and analyzes the estimation results of economic significance.
The main conclusions of this paper are: the current situation of China's CO2 emissions is large amount, but lower per capita emissions, CO2 emissions intensity, significantly higher than the average level of the world, Eastern CO2 emissions; import and export trade situation is steady growth of foreign trade volume, trade structure and trade methods in recent years, although slightly improved but, not to the processing trade as the leading trade mode change.
In different regions, import and export trade has the different influence on CO2 emission. The eastern and central export trade development will lead to increased emissions of CO2 in our country, the development of import trade helps to reduce the emission of CO2 in China, and the western area of the import and export of CO2 emissions were not significantly affected.
The emission of CO2 nonlinear effect of import and export trade significantly, with the scale of trade for the transfer variable, exports will lead to increased domestic emissions of CO2, but with the expansion of the scale of export trade, the proportion of the influence on CO2 emission decreased; import trade can help reduce CO2 emissions in China, with the expansion of trade scale, CO2 emission reduction effect import trade increased gradually. With the trade structure for the transfer variable, influence trade structure unreasonable make the emission of CO2 nonlinear effects of export trade was significantly larger than the linear effect, so the adjustment of trade structure to reduce the emission of CO2 in China has an important role; linear and nonlinear effects of import trade show imports to reduce CO2 emissions in China.
According to the estimated results, we put forward the following policy recommendations: optimizing industrial structure, promoting the development of low carbon trade industry, promoting technological progress, improving energy efficiency and developing new energy, and implementing different trade policies for different regions.

【學位授予單位】：東北財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X22;F752.6;F224

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