本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融危機后人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易不平衡的關(guān)系　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貿(mào)易不平衡 人民幣匯率 彈性法 VAR模型

【摘要】：中美之間持續(xù)的貿(mào)易不平衡問題多年來都受到全球矚目。有許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和政府決策人都認為中國在通過低估人民幣匯率的方式,以貿(mào)易伙伴的利益為代價維持其居高不下的貿(mào)易盈余。自從全球金融危機之后,難以順利經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的國家也開始漸漸把重心放在了他們與貿(mào)易伙伴的經(jīng)濟關(guān)系上。美國也對人民幣升值施加壓力,希望以此來改善貿(mào)易狀況,推動經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。在這樣的背景之下,這篇論文想要檢驗的就是人民幣與中美貿(mào)易不平衡的關(guān)系是否與理論吻合,升值人民幣是否能推動美國的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。論文通過分析中美貿(mào)易不平衡的現(xiàn)狀、回顧基本的匯率制度和探討金融危機之后劇烈的匯率變動來介紹論文研究的背景,其中金融危機之后世界范圍內(nèi)的劇烈匯率變動是論文定題的主要動機之一。通過回顧包括經(jīng)典匯率理論、當代匯率理論和匯率理論的新發(fā)展之內(nèi)的匯率理論,本文選擇了彈性法作為主要的理論模型,為進一步的實證分析建立基礎(chǔ)。理論基礎(chǔ)的討論最先圍繞匯率、國內(nèi)收入和國外收入這三大貿(mào)易收支的影響因素展開。彈性法進一步解釋了匯率和貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系,但匯率貶值可以改善貿(mào)易收支的前提是馬歇爾·勒納條件得到滿足。然而由于J曲線效應(yīng)的存在,即使馬歇爾·勒納條件滿足,匯率貶值和貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系剛開始也與理論預(yù)測相反,直到經(jīng)過時滯之后才與理論想溫和。論文的實證分析包括兩個部分。首先是對馬歇爾·勒納條件的檢驗。根據(jù)對2009年以來的數(shù)據(jù)計算和分析,得出中國的進出口彈性基本滿足馬歇爾·勒納條件的結(jié)論。第二部分是以向量自回歸(VAR)模型為基礎(chǔ)的一系列實證檢驗。論文首先建立了以中美貿(mào)易差額為因變量,人民幣實際匯率、中美雙方GDP為自變量的回歸模型。對這四個變量2009年至2014年的季度數(shù)據(jù)進行分析,一階差分后四個數(shù)列均通過單位根檢驗。協(xié)整檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)四個變量之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系。VAR模型建立之后,根據(jù)脈沖響應(yīng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣匯率和貿(mào)易差額之間滿足J曲線效應(yīng)。最后方差分解發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的GDP比人民幣匯率對貿(mào)易差額的變動更具有解釋力。論文根據(jù)實證分析的結(jié)果得到了以下結(jié)論：首先,中美貿(mào)易差額、人民幣匯率和兩國GDP之間存在長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,但是人民幣匯率并非影響中美貿(mào)易差額的主要原因,而是中國GDP。其次,與美國的貿(mào)易對中國GDP的增長影響很大。第三,盡管人民幣匯率并非中美貿(mào)易不平衡的主要影響因素,卻與美國GDP的增長有著正相關(guān)關(guān)系。據(jù)此論文對中美兩國經(jīng)濟政策尤其是貿(mào)易政策以及人民幣匯率改革方面提出了政策建議。論文的不足之處在于對于理論模型的檢驗只通過中美雙邊貿(mào)易進行,缺乏更全面的樣本,數(shù)據(jù)的選取也存在一定不足,并且選取的計量模型也并不能夠全面地反映變量之間的關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:The persistent trade imbalance between China and the United States has attracted global attention for years. Many economists and government policymakers believe that China is undervaluing its currency. Maintain its high trade surplus at the expense of trading partners. Since the global financial crisis. Countries that are struggling with a smooth recovery are also starting to focus on their economic relations with their trading partners. The United States is also putting pressure on the yuan to appreciate in hopes of improving trade conditions. Against this backdrop, this paper wants to examine whether the relationship between the renminbi and the trade imbalance between China and the United States is in line with the theory. Whether the appreciation of RMB can promote the economic recovery of the United States. This paper analyzes the current situation of trade imbalance between China and the United States. Review the basic exchange rate system and discuss the drastic exchange rate changes after the financial crisis to introduce the background of the paper. One of the main motivations of the thesis is the drastic exchange rate changes in the world after the financial crisis. Through reviewing the new developed exchange rate theory including classical exchange rate theory, contemporary exchange rate theory and exchange rate theory. In this paper, the elastic method is chosen as the main theoretical model to establish the basis for further empirical analysis. The theoretical basis of the discussion is first around the exchange rate. Domestic income and foreign income are the three main factors influencing trade balance. Elastic method further explains the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. But a depreciation of the exchange rate can improve the balance of trade if the Marshal Lerner condition is met, but because of the J curve effect, even if the Machel Lerner condition is satisfied. The relationship between exchange rate depreciation and trade balance is also at first contrary to theoretical forecasts. The empirical analysis of the paper consists of two parts. The first is the test of the Marshal Lerner condition. The calculation and analysis are based on the data from 2009. The conclusion that China's import and export elasticity basically meets the Marshal Lerner condition. The second part is based on vector autoregressive VARs. A series of empirical tests based on the model. Firstly, the paper establishes the Sino-US trade balance as a dependent variable. The real exchange rate of RMB, the GDP of China and the United States, is the regression model of independent variables. The quarterly data of these four variables from 2009 to 2014 are analyzed. After the first order difference, the four sequence passed the unit root test. The cointegration test found that there was a long-term stable relationship between the four variables. According to the impulse response analysis, it is found that the J-curve effect is satisfied between the RMB exchange rate and the trade balance. The final variance decomposition shows that China's GDP has more explanatory power than the RMB exchange rate on the change of the trade balance. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows:. First. There is a long-term stable relationship between the Sino-US trade balance, RMB exchange rate and GDP, but the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason that affects the Sino-US trade balance, but China's GDP.Second. Trade with the United States has a significant impact on China's GDP growth. Third, although the RMB exchange rate is not a major factor in the trade imbalance between China and the United States. However, there is a positive correlation with the growth of GDP in the United States. Based on this, the paper puts forward policy recommendations on the economic policies of China and the United States, especially on the trade policy and the reform of the RMB exchange rate. The deficiency of the paper lies in its theoretical implications. The model is tested only through bilateral trade between China and the United States. In the absence of more comprehensive samples, there are some deficiencies in the selection of data, and the selected econometric model can not fully reflect the relationship between variables.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7

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本文編號：1425363