本文關(guān)鍵詞：勞動力成本變動對我國貿(mào)易條件的影響　出處：《重慶大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 勞動力成本 貿(mào)易條件 主成分分析 SVAR模型

【摘要】：伴隨著我國勞動力成本的不斷上升,勢必影響到外部的需求,而我國貿(mào)易條件以及經(jīng)濟增長動力將不可避免的受到影響。在這樣的背景下,文章首先對勞動力成本變動對我國貿(mào)易條件的影響機制進行了理論分析,然后通過主成分分析法對影響我國勞動力成本的各因素進行比較靜態(tài)的綜合分析。接著,通過構(gòu)建SVAR模型,著重對我國的勞動力成本變動對我國貿(mào)易條件的影響進行了動態(tài)分析。一國純粹的勞動力成本上漲和勞動力成本的下跌,并不會引起國內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)和社會福利曲線發(fā)生改變,此時匯率水平的變化幅度和勞動力成本的上漲幅度共同決定著一國的貿(mào)易條件和福利水平。在一國的勞動力成本上漲擴大了該國的生產(chǎn)能力時,該國的貿(mào)易條件的變化將由勞動力成本、生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、匯率的變化共同決定,即受到國內(nèi)成本沖擊、供給沖擊和國外需求沖擊的共同影響。但是,勞動力素質(zhì)水平的提升所帶來的勞動力成本的上漲,所引起的生產(chǎn)能力的擴張,無論引發(fā)貿(mào)易條件如何變動,都將提高一國的福利水平。貿(mào)易條件影響因素的主成分分析結(jié)果表明,相對出口指數(shù)和相對勞動力指數(shù)對我國貿(mào)易條件的變動影響相對顯著,是關(guān)注我國貿(mào)易發(fā)展必須同步關(guān)注的重要議題。其中正向影響因素為相對出口數(shù)量指數(shù)、相對出口價值指數(shù)、勞動力數(shù)量指數(shù),這表明世界市場對我國商品的需求量的增加,對我國貿(mào)易條件的改善起到了積極作用。負向影響因素有相對GDP指數(shù)、相對資本指數(shù)、平均工資指數(shù)、世界成本指數(shù),這表明,我國領(lǐng)先于世界的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度和供給能力惡化了我國的貿(mào)易條件,靠出口拉動經(jīng)濟增長的經(jīng)濟模式是不可持續(xù)的�？紤]到滯后因素的影響,SVAR模型的實證研究結(jié)果表明,勞動力成本的變動是影響我國貿(mào)易條件的一個重要方面。而勞動力成本變動對我國貿(mào)易條件的影響是短期的,并呈現(xiàn)出先惡化然后改善,后期小幅震動趨于平穩(wěn)的趨勢。我國勞動力成本的上漲會推動我國生產(chǎn)力水平的假設條件是成立的。但是,貿(mào)易條件的惡化主要是因為供應的沖擊高于我國匯率和成本的沖擊所致。盡管如此,由于生產(chǎn)力水平的提升,生產(chǎn)可能性曲線擴張帶來了我國社會福利的上升。貿(mào)易條件是一國重要的經(jīng)濟信息指標,對其他經(jīng)濟因素的變化貢獻很大,因此貿(mào)易條件的變化是應該受到重視的。在我國貿(mào)易條件變化的貢獻中,勞動力成本和匯率水平均是重要的影響因素。匯率的變化作為對我國貿(mào)易條件變化貢獻最大的因素,與我國的貿(mào)易條件呈現(xiàn)出動態(tài)同向變動的關(guān)系。由此可見,我國匯率的升值(h負增長)是我國貿(mào)易條件惡化的主要原因。
[Abstract]:With the rising labor costs in China, it will inevitably affect the external demand, and China's terms of trade and economic growth will inevitably be affected. Firstly, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of labor cost change on China's terms of trade. Then through the principal component analysis of the impact of labor costs of China's various factors for comparative static comprehensive analysis. Then, through the construction of SVAR model. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the influence of the change of labor cost on the terms of trade of our country. The rise of labor cost and the decline of labor cost in a country. It will not cause the production function and social welfare curve to change. At this time, the change of exchange rate level and the increase of labor cost jointly determine a country's terms of trade and welfare level. Changes in the terms of trade of the country will be determined by changes in labor costs, production scale, and exchange rates, that is, by the impact of domestic costs, supply shocks and foreign demand shocks. The rise of labor cost and the expansion of productive capacity caused by the improvement of labor quality level, no matter how the terms of trade change. The results of principal component analysis show that the relative export index and the relative labor force index have a relatively significant effect on the change of China's terms of trade. It is an important issue to pay attention to the development of China's trade. The positive factors are the relative export quantity index, the relative export value index and the labor force quantity index. This indicates that the increasing demand for Chinese commodities in the world market has played a positive role in the improvement of China's terms of trade. The negative influence factors are relative GDP index, relative capital index and average wage index. The World cost Index, which shows that China is ahead of the world in terms of economic development and supply capacity, has worsened our terms of trade. The economic model of export-led economic growth is not sustainable. The empirical results of SVAR model show that considering the influence of lag factors. The change of labor cost is an important aspect that affects the terms of trade of our country, and the change of labor cost has a short-term effect on the terms of trade of our country, and presents the deterioration first and then the improvement. The assumption that the increase of labor cost will promote the level of productivity in China is true. The deterioration in the terms of trade was mainly due to supply shocks higher than those of our exchange rates and costs, although this was due to higher productivity levels. The expansion of production possibility curve has brought about the rise of social welfare in our country. Terms of trade is an important economic information index of a country, which contributes a lot to the change of other economic factors. Therefore, the change of terms of trade should be taken seriously. The change of exchange rate, as the most important factor to the change of the terms of trade of our country, has a dynamic and codirectional relationship with the terms of trade of our country. The appreciation of China's exchange rate and negative growth are the main reasons for the deterioration of China's terms of trade.
【學位授予單位】：重慶大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F249.24;F752.6

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