本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口影響研究　出處：《上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 匯率波動(dòng) 勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè) 出口 VAR模型 結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放后,人民幣匯率制度先后經(jīng)歷了計(jì)劃內(nèi)部雙軌制、釘住美元的匯率制度以及“參考”一籃子貨幣的有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度幾個(gè)階段。人民幣也經(jīng)歷了四個(gè)階段的貶值和升值時(shí)期,特別是在2005年7月21日匯率改革后,匯率升值速度加快,并且引起世界普遍的關(guān)注,人民幣匯率的波動(dòng)給世界經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)廣泛影響。目前的研究結(jié)果總體傾向于匯率與對(duì)外貿(mào)易的總量的關(guān)系研究上,然而研究匯率與勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口影響的文獻(xiàn)較少。最近幾年,隨著人民幣的不斷升值以及勞動(dòng)力成本的不斷上升,勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口受到一定程度的影響,但是結(jié)合國(guó)情分析可知,勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)不會(huì)消失,仍會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)較大影響。因此,如何從匯率的角度進(jìn)行分析,以找到合理的應(yīng)對(duì)策略,來(lái)為的勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)持續(xù)健康的發(fā)展提供相關(guān)建議,是本文的研究所在。為了更充分地反映人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口影響,本文從貿(mào)易方式角度,采用理論和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,研究人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口的影響,以此能得出匯率對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)不同出口貿(mào)易方式的影響程度,從而為調(diào)整勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)提供依據(jù),進(jìn)而為國(guó)家實(shí)現(xiàn)行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型,提供合理化建議。本文詳細(xì)介紹了匯率波動(dòng)的歷程,發(fā)展趨勢(shì)以及勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)的概況,并通過(guò)搜集近些年人民幣匯率和勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口貿(mào)易方面的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證模型深入分析了人民幣匯率對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口的影響,預(yù)期得到以下幾個(gè)方面:一是人民幣匯率波動(dòng)是勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變的重要原因,會(huì)引起低產(chǎn)品附加值和高技術(shù)含量出口品貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的波動(dòng);二是人民幣匯率升值會(huì)引起勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品中以加工貿(mào)易為主的企業(yè)的出口額的減少幅度大于以一般貿(mào)易出口為主企業(yè)的出口額的減少幅度;三是人民幣匯率升值一定程度上有利于提高高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品占總產(chǎn)品的出口比重;四是人民幣匯率波動(dòng)有利于調(diào)整貿(mào)易出口結(jié)構(gòu),推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的步伐。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate system has experienced a two-track system. The exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar and the managed floating exchange rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB has also experienced four stages of depreciation and appreciation. Especially after the exchange rate reform in July 21st 2005, the rate of exchange rate appreciation accelerated, and caused widespread concern in the world. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a wide impact on the world economy. The current research results generally tend to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the total amount of foreign trade. But there is less literature on the impact of exchange rates on exports from labour-intensive industries. In recent years, with the appreciation of the renminbi and rising labour costs. The export of labor-intensive industries is affected to a certain extent, but according to the analysis of national conditions, labor-intensive industries will disappear in a short period of time, and will still have a greater impact on the economy. How to analyze from the point of view of exchange rate in order to find a reasonable response strategy for the labor-intensive industries to provide relevant recommendations for the sustained and healthy development. In order to fully reflect the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the export of labor-intensive industries, this paper adopts a combination of theory and empirical analysis from the perspective of trade mode. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the export of labor-intensive industries, so as to obtain the impact of the exchange rate on the different export trade modes of labor-intensive industries. Thus it provides the basis for adjusting the internal structure of labor-intensive industries, and then provides reasonable suggestions for the country to realize the industry transformation. This paper introduces the course of exchange rate fluctuation in detail. Development trends and labor-intensive industries, and through the collection of recent RMB exchange rate and labor-intensive industries export trade data. The empirical model is used to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate on the export of labor-intensive industries, and the following aspects are expected: first, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is an important reason for the transformation of export structure of labor-intensive industries. It will cause the fluctuation of trade structure of exports with low added value and high technology content; Second, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will cause the decrease of export value of the enterprises which mainly focus on processing trade in the labor-intensive products, which is larger than that of the enterprises with the main export of general trade. Third, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate to some extent helps to increase the proportion of high-tech products in the export of total products; Fourth, RMB exchange rate fluctuations are conducive to readjusting the structure of trade exports and promoting the pace of economic restructuring and upgrading.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.62

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