本文關(guān)鍵詞：東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)背景下中日韓最終需求的產(chǎn)出誘發(fā)效應(yīng)　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的深入發(fā)展,中日韓FTA的建立成為東北亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟合作的焦點。自2012年11月至2014年,中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)已經(jīng)進行了五輪談判,在2015年1月16日,第六輪談判首席談判代表會議在日本東京舉行,三國將就貨物貿(mào)易降稅模式、服務(wù)貿(mào)易和投資開放方式及協(xié)定范圍與領(lǐng)域等議題進行磋商。本文結(jié)合東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,利用歐盟委員會開發(fā)的WIOD數(shù)據(jù)庫,分析了東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中各經(jīng)濟體的需求結(jié)構(gòu),構(gòu)造了基于國際區(qū)域間投入產(chǎn)出模型的最終需求生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)系數(shù),綜合比較和分析了1995-2011年間中日韓最終需求誘發(fā)效應(yīng)的動態(tài)變化特征及其影響因素。結(jié)果表明:首先,整體而言,東亞經(jīng)濟體中各國的進口中間需求占中間需求的比重大于進口最終需求占最終需求的比重。這表明中間品貿(mào)易在國別貿(mào)易中的地位越來越重要,垂直專業(yè)化模式是東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)重要的分工模式。其次,中國在東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中扮演著越來越重要的角色,成為東亞各國最終產(chǎn)品和中間產(chǎn)品的最大供給國,美國、日本和歐盟的地位在逐漸削弱。特別是對韓國和日本而言,中國是日本和韓國最大的進口中間需求和最終需求來源國。最后,中日韓三國最終需求的產(chǎn)出直接誘發(fā)系數(shù)相差不大,而間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)存在較大的差別,而間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)的大小與兩國間的中間品貿(mào)易規(guī)模息息相關(guān)。通過對間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)分解后發(fā)現(xiàn):在東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)下,在中韓貿(mào)易中,中國通過消耗其他東亞國家的最終品對韓國產(chǎn)出的間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)較大,而韓國通過消耗其他東亞國家的最終品對中國產(chǎn)出的間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)也不容小視;在中日貿(mào)易中,中國通過消耗其他東亞國家的最終品對日本產(chǎn)出的間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)最大,而日本通過消費韓國的最終產(chǎn)品對中國產(chǎn)出的間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)最大;在日韓貿(mào)易中,日本通過消費中國最終品對韓國產(chǎn)出的間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)最大,韓國則通過消耗其他東亞國家的最終產(chǎn)品對日本產(chǎn)出的間接誘發(fā)系數(shù)最大。在整個東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中,若中日韓達成了自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,不僅會產(chǎn)生直接貿(mào)易政策效果,另一方面會因整個東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重構(gòu),形成貿(mào)易流量及其背后的供給變化的間接影響,對三國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展都是極其有利的。
[Abstract]:With the further development of East Asian production network, the establishment of FTA between China, Japan and South Korea has become the focus of regional economic cooperation in Northeast Asia. From November 2012 to 2014, five rounds of negotiations have been conducted between China, Japan and Korea. On January 16th 2015, the 6th round of chief negotiators' meeting was held in Tokyo, Japan, where the three countries will cut taxes on trade in goods. This paper makes use of the WIOD database developed by the European Commission in the light of the current development of the East Asian production network. This paper analyzes the demand structure of each economy in the East Asian production network, and constructs the final demand production evoked coefficient based on the international inter-regional input-output model. This paper comprehensively compares and analyzes the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of the final demand-induced effect between China, Japan and South Korea from 1995 to 2011. The results show that: first, overall. The proportion of import intermediate demand to intermediate demand in East Asian economies is larger than the proportion of import final demand to final demand, which indicates that intermediate goods trade plays an increasingly important role in national trade. Vertical specialization is an important division of labor in East Asian production network. Secondly, China plays a more and more important role in East Asia production network, becoming the largest supplier of final products and intermediate products in East Asian countries. The status of the United States, Japan and the European Union is gradually weakening. For South Korea and Japan in particular, China is the largest source of intermediate and final import demand for Japan and South Korea. The output direct evoked coefficient of the final demand of China, Japan and South Korea is not different, but the indirect inductive coefficient is quite different. The magnitude of the indirect evoked coefficient is closely related to the scale of the intermediate trade between the two countries. Through the decomposition of the indirect evoked coefficient, it is found that under the East Asian production network, in the trade between China and South Korea. By consuming the final products of other East Asian countries, China has a larger indirect inducement coefficient to Korea's output, and Korea's indirect inductive coefficient of Chinese output by consuming other East Asian countries' final products should not be underestimated. In Sino-Japanese trade, China has the biggest indirect inducement coefficient to Japanese output by consuming the final products of other East Asian countries, while Japan has the biggest indirect inducement coefficient to Chinese output through consuming Korea's final products. In the trade between Japan and South Korea, Japan has the largest indirect inducement coefficient to Korea's output through the consumption of Chinese final products. South Korea, by consuming the final products of other East Asian countries, has the largest indirect inducement coefficient to Japan's output. In the whole East Asian production network, China, Japan and South Korea have reached a free trade agreement. It will not only produce direct trade policy effect, on the other hand, because of the reconstruction of the whole East Asian production network, it will form the indirect influence of the trade flow and the change of supply behind it, which is extremely beneficial to the economic development of the three countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F742

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