【摘要】：在缺乏監(jiān)管主體和法律適用性不強等背景下,民間融資行為極易演變?yōu)榉欠Y活動,而對非法集資行為的監(jiān)測和預(yù)警則非常困難,僅靠事后的被動應(yīng)對很難對非法集資進行有效的防范和控制。因此亟須研究民間融資的活躍程度與非法集資的關(guān)聯(lián)性,從而通過對民間融資的監(jiān)測達到對非法集資犯罪進行預(yù)警的目的。在對我國民間融資和非法集資的基本情況進行梳理分析的基礎(chǔ)上,采用經(jīng)濟金融相關(guān)系數(shù)法對我國各省份民間融資的規(guī)模進行測算。然后分別采用面板格蘭杰因果檢驗、面板協(xié)整檢驗和PVAR模型檢驗民間融資規(guī)模和利率與非法集資立案數(shù)量的關(guān)聯(lián)性。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)民間融資規(guī)模與非法集資之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系;(2)民間融資利率是非法集資的格蘭杰原因,民間融資規(guī)模對非法集資存在顯著的正向沖擊。
[Abstract]:Under the background of lack of regulatory subject and weak applicability of law, private financing behavior is easy to evolve into illegal fund-raising activities, while the monitoring and early warning of illegal fund-raising behavior is very difficult, and it is difficult to effectively prevent and control illegal fund-raising by passive response only after the event. Therefore, it is urgent to study the relationship between the activity of private financing and illegal fund-raising, so as to achieve the purpose of early warning of illegal fund-raising crime through the monitoring of private financing. On the basis of combing and analyzing the basic situation of private financing and illegal fund-raising in China, the scale of private financing in various provinces of China is calculated by using the method of economic and financial correlation coefficient. Then panel Granger causality test, panel cointegration test and PVAR model are used to test the correlation between private financing scale and interest rate and the number of illegal fund raising cases. The results show that: (1) there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the scale of private financing and illegal financing; (2) the interest rate of private financing is the Granger cause of illegal financing, and the scale of private financing has a significant positive impact on illegal financing.
【作者單位】： 中國人民銀行鄭州中心支行;中國人民銀行上街區(qū)支行;
【分類號】：F832.4
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本文編號：2497704