中國(guó)的實(shí)際匯率制度:基于BBC框架的動(dòng)態(tài)考察
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-25 09:07
【摘要】：本文基于匯率籃子、波動(dòng)區(qū)間、爬行速度三維指標(biāo)構(gòu)建了廣義的匯率制度識(shí)別框架,并利用狀態(tài)空間模型對(duì)中國(guó)的實(shí)際匯率制度及其變遷軌跡進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)考察。結(jié)果表明:2005年匯改前中國(guó)事實(shí)上實(shí)行單一盯住美元的固定匯率制;2005-2008年、2010-2015年中國(guó)實(shí)行參照一籃子貨幣的浮動(dòng)匯率制;而在2008-2010年間實(shí)行的是參考盯住一籃子貨幣的固定匯率制;匯改后人民幣匯率籃子中美元占比仍穩(wěn)定在86%-90%之間,其他貨幣主要起"點(diǎn)綴"作用;盡管人民幣相對(duì)一籃子貨幣存在趨勢(shì)性升值、貶值的變化,但人民幣的匯率制度彈性自2008年起長(zhǎng)期未變;未來(lái)深化匯率形成機(jī)制改革可從完善人民幣中間價(jià)定價(jià)機(jī)制等角度入手。
[Abstract]:Based on the three-dimensional index of exchange rate basket, fluctuation range and crawling speed, this paper constructs a broad framework for the identification of exchange rate regime, and dynamically investigates the real exchange rate regime and its transition trajectory in China by using the state space model. The results show that before the exchange rate reform in 2005, China actually implemented a fixed exchange rate system with a single peg to the dollar, and in 2005-2008, China implemented a floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies from 2010 to 2015. The fixed exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies was implemented in 2008 / 2010. After the exchange rate reform, the share of the US dollar in the RMB exchange rate basket remained stable at 86% / 90%, while other currencies played a "dotted" role. In spite of the trend appreciation and devaluation of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, the elasticity of RMB exchange rate regime has not changed for a long time since 2008. Deepening the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in the future can be done from the perspective of perfecting the RMB mid-rate pricing mechanism.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)金融學(xué)院、金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金青年項(xiàng)目“金磚國(guó)家應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備安排的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)、收益分配與治理優(yōu)化問(wèn)題研究”(15CJY081) 北京市教委社科計(jì)劃一般項(xiàng)目“應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備安排的機(jī)制障礙與破解路徑”(SM201610038002) 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)2015年中青年骨干教師培育項(xiàng)目和首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)2013年度科研基金項(xiàng)目資助
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
[Abstract]:Based on the three-dimensional index of exchange rate basket, fluctuation range and crawling speed, this paper constructs a broad framework for the identification of exchange rate regime, and dynamically investigates the real exchange rate regime and its transition trajectory in China by using the state space model. The results show that before the exchange rate reform in 2005, China actually implemented a fixed exchange rate system with a single peg to the dollar, and in 2005-2008, China implemented a floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies from 2010 to 2015. The fixed exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies was implemented in 2008 / 2010. After the exchange rate reform, the share of the US dollar in the RMB exchange rate basket remained stable at 86% / 90%, while other currencies played a "dotted" role. In spite of the trend appreciation and devaluation of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, the elasticity of RMB exchange rate regime has not changed for a long time since 2008. Deepening the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in the future can be done from the perspective of perfecting the RMB mid-rate pricing mechanism.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)金融學(xué)院、金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金青年項(xiàng)目“金磚國(guó)家應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備安排的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)、收益分配與治理優(yōu)化問(wèn)題研究”(15CJY081) 北京市教委社科計(jì)劃一般項(xiàng)目“應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備安排的機(jī)制障礙與破解路徑”(SM201610038002) 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)2015年中青年骨干教師培育項(xiàng)目和首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)2013年度科研基金項(xiàng)目資助
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
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