【摘要】：利率是市場經(jīng)濟條件下的重要指標,是各市場參與主體使用資金的成本的顯著標志,對整個市場的都產生至關重要的作用。匯率則是在開放條件下的外匯市場上形成的核心變量,要受到國際收支、外匯市場、外匯儲備和跨國資產組合等因素的影響。如果將一個國家的貨幣視為一項資產的話,利率就是這種貨幣在國內貨幣市場上的價格(或者稱之為對內價格),與此同時,一個國家貨幣的匯率則是這種貨幣在國際市場中的表現(xiàn)(體現(xiàn)為對外價值),他們之間具有內在一致的價值基礎,相互聯(lián)系緊密。在開放經(jīng)濟的條件下,貨幣的利率與匯率兩個經(jīng)濟變量之間相互作用、相互影響,更重要的是,他們之間可能同時受更為基本的宏觀經(jīng)濟變量基礎等因素(諸如貨幣供給等)作用而變動,構成一個體系復雜的動態(tài)反饋系統(tǒng),形成利率-匯率互動機制。然而我們國內對于利率與匯率的互動機制關注過少,而對于利率-匯率互動機制缺乏足夠的認識將會使得在我們逐步推進利率市場化改革的過程中缺乏對市場整體的把握而錯失機會,甚至導致政策沖突,南轅北轍擾亂金融市場化改革的進程。然而,到底現(xiàn)在人民幣匯率與利率之間是否存在互動關系,這樣的互動關系是怎樣作用并且如何影響政策發(fā)揮作用的呢,如何在存在互動效應的前提下實現(xiàn)利率政策與匯率政策的協(xié)調等有待我們進一步的研究。本文通過運用現(xiàn)代計量經(jīng)濟學的研究方法,探究大量數(shù)據(jù)背后利率與匯率之間聯(lián)系。
[Abstract]:Interest rate is an important indicator in the market economy and a significant symbol of the cost of using funds by the participants in the market. It plays an important role in the whole market. The exchange rate is the core variable formed in the open foreign exchange market, which is influenced by the balance of payments, foreign exchange market, foreign exchange reserve and transnational portfolio. If a country's currency is considered an asset, the interest rate is the price of the currency on the domestic money market (or internal price), at the same time, The exchange rate of a country's currency is the performance of the currency in the international market. In an open economy, the interest rate of the currency and the exchange rate interact with each other and, more importantly, They may be affected by more basic macroeconomic variables (such as money supply) at the same time to form a complex system of dynamic feedback system to form an interest-exchange rate interaction mechanism. However, our domestic interest rate and exchange rate interaction mechanism is too little attention, And the lack of sufficient understanding of the rate-exchange rate interaction mechanism will make us lose the opportunity to grasp the market as a whole and even lead to policy conflicts in the process of gradually promoting the market-oriented interest rate reform. Diametrically different ruts disrupt the process of financial marketization reform. However, whether or not there is an interaction between the RMB exchange rate and the interest rate, how does such an interaction work and how does it affect policy? How to realize the coordination of interest rate policy and exchange rate policy under the premise of interaction needs further study. By using modern econometrics, this paper explores the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate.
【學位授予單位】：上海社會科學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：2304546