宏觀流動性管理研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-10 07:09
【摘要】：2007年,發(fā)端于美國的次貸危機迅速演變?yōu)橄砣虻慕鹑谖C,至今世界經(jīng)濟仍然在發(fā)展的泥濘中蹣跚。這次金融危機對于貨幣經(jīng)濟從理論到實踐都產(chǎn)生了巨大的沖擊。各國中央銀行以及國際金融組織率先在實踐中進行了流動性管理的創(chuàng)新,學界也開始對原先主流的“新維克塞爾主義”(新古典綜合主義)框架進行修補,同時也開始力圖發(fā)展新理論框架對流動性管理創(chuàng)新的實踐進行總結(jié)和指導。本文在金融創(chuàng)新的背景中進一步深入發(fā)展了后凱恩斯主義的信用貨幣內(nèi)生理論,提出在金融創(chuàng)新背景下,貨幣和金融不再僅僅是實體經(jīng)濟的面紗,而是與實體經(jīng)濟相連、但同時能夠自我運轉(zhuǎn)的半封閉體系,同時由于金融摩擦的存在,金融體系相較實體經(jīng)濟更易產(chǎn)生巨大的波動,也就是說未來發(fā)生金融部門波動向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟傳導的金融危機模式的概率將大大高于早先實體經(jīng)濟波動傳導至金融部門的經(jīng)濟危機模式。對于中央銀行而言,未來的任務除了管理實體經(jīng)濟的流動性(價格穩(wěn)定)外,還必須管理金融部門的流動性(金融穩(wěn)定)。所以,發(fā)展宏觀流動性管理框架,同時管理物價穩(wěn)定和金融穩(wěn)定將是金融管理體制創(chuàng)新和演化的方向。為向金融管理部門提供宏觀流動性管理的思路和框架,本文主要從三個部分六個方面的進行了分析。第一部分對宏觀流動性管理的相關(guān)研究文獻進行綜述。第二部分主要是基于貨幣內(nèi)生理論對宏觀流動性的循環(huán)進行了理論分析,為構(gòu)建金融管理部門宏觀流動性管理框架提供基礎(chǔ)。第三部分是基于理論分析,構(gòu)建了金融管理部門宏觀流動性的管理框架,從流動性的日常管理和趨勢管理、宏觀審慎管理、流動性危機管理和國際流動性管理5個方面論述了宏觀流動性管理框架和工具的主要內(nèi)容。第四部分則是總結(jié)分析了國外主要中央銀行的流動性管理框架和自2007年全球金融危機以來所采取的非常規(guī)的流動性管理措施。第五部分分析了中國人民銀行改革開放以來流動性管理框架和工具的變化,并對人民銀行將來的宏觀流動性管理進行了思考。第六部分在前述的宏觀流動性理論、管理框架、國內(nèi)外的歷史經(jīng)驗基礎(chǔ)上,對加強和改進中國的宏觀流動性管理的框架和工具提出了意見和建議。本文的主要創(chuàng)新之處至少有三個方面:第一,理論上,本文摒棄了目前院校派貨幣經(jīng)濟學研究的主流框架,使用后凱恩斯主義的信用貨幣內(nèi)生理論框架分析了貨幣、信用創(chuàng)造和社會總流動性間的關(guān)系,進一步澄清了貨幣與信用間的關(guān)系,得出了金融市場摩擦會導致信用擴張和金融穩(wěn)定間的替代效應的推論,并進一步提出推論:貨幣主義提倡的管理基礎(chǔ)貨幣以盯住貨幣總量(貨幣存量)和新古典綜合主義主張的根據(jù)市場流動性需求管理利率這兩種現(xiàn)有的流動性管理框架在應對外部沖擊時均有缺陷,因此金融管理部門需要一個能管住貨幣、管住信貸、管住信用的宏觀流動性管理框架。第二,規(guī)范上,構(gòu)建了宏觀流動性管理的理論框架。宏觀流動性管理至少需要三個組成部分,第一個部分是能使用貨幣政策,通過同業(yè)市場的操作管理貨幣價格-利率(同業(yè)市場的價格管理),從而管住貨幣,并間接調(diào)控信用創(chuàng)造;第二個部分則是在宏觀審慎管理框架中,選擇合適工具管理金融體系的整體信用供給(金融體系的信用總量管理);第三個部分則是構(gòu)建流動性救助通道,能夠避免單個金融機構(gòu)流動性危機擴散和傳染為系統(tǒng)流動性危機。第三,應用上,系統(tǒng)總結(jié)了境外主要中央銀行的流動性管理體制,梳理了中國流動性管理體制及其主要工具的演變,提出了中國未來宏觀流動性框架要能夠管住短期貨幣價格,能夠管住信貸,能夠管住金融體系的信用總量,并進一步分析了其轉(zhuǎn)型路徑以及為實現(xiàn)順利轉(zhuǎn)型所需要進行的制度準備等問題,為人民銀行管理框架的轉(zhuǎn)變提供了系統(tǒng)的解決方案。本篇論文主要的理論意義在于三個方面:第一,本文剖析了貨幣主義和新古典主義信用理論和貨幣理論關(guān)于流動性管理存在的缺陷,明確提出當前的貨幣政策管理框架將會引致金融體系的不穩(wěn)定,并加大經(jīng)濟體系波動幅度。第二,本文發(fā)展了內(nèi)生貨幣理論框架,將包括銀行在內(nèi)的金融機構(gòu)的活動與實體經(jīng)濟的波動相聯(lián)系起來,提出金融管理部門需要放寬視野,不僅僅只對利率或者貨幣總量進行管理,而應該在科學合理的信用總量范圍內(nèi)通過管理利率來管理流動性。第三,本文提出了金融管理部門進行宏觀流動性管理的主要范圍、內(nèi)容和工具。本篇論文具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。第一,為未來的宏觀金融管理提供了一個指導性框架。對如何進行同業(yè)市場的價格管理以及金融市場的總量管理提供了可操作的實踐工具箱。第二,最重要的現(xiàn)實意義是為中國金融管理體制當前的改革提供了指導性建議。中國金融管理框架目前面臨著兩個主要任務,一是改革,即從數(shù)量型管理向價格型管理轉(zhuǎn)變,二是發(fā)展,即在保證價格穩(wěn)定和金融穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)上滿足中國未來金融創(chuàng)新和發(fā)展的需要。本文提供的宏觀流動性管理框架對中國金融體制深化改革和發(fā)展這兩個任務提供了可行路徑。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the subprime crisis, which originated in the United States, quickly evolved into a global financial crisis. The world economy still lurched in the muddy development of the world. The financial crisis had a huge impact on the monetary economy from theory to practice. The central banks and international financial organizations took the lead in the practice of liquidity management. The academic circles also began to repair the original mainstream "new Vicker Searl doctrine" (neo classical comprehensive) framework, and also began to develop new theoretical framework to summarize and guide the practice of liquidity management innovation. In the background of financial innovation, this paper develops the post Keynes's credit currency in depth. In the theory of endogenous, it is proposed that under the background of financial innovation, money and finance are not only the veil of the real economy, but the semi closed system that is connected to the real economy, but at the same time it can operate itself. At the same time, because of the existence of financial friction, the financial system is more likely to produce huge fluctuations than the real economy, that is to say, the financial sector will occur in the future. The probability of the financial crisis mode carried by the volatility to the real economy will be much higher than the economic crisis mode that the earlier real economic fluctuations transmit to the financial sector. For the central bank, the future task must manage the liquidity of the financial sector (financial stability) in addition to the liquidity of the real economy (stable price). The management framework of macro liquidity and the management of price stability and financial stability will be the direction of innovation and evolution of the financial management system. In order to provide macro liquidity management to the financial management department, this paper mainly analyzes the three parts and six aspects. Part one is related to the research of macro liquidity management. The second part is mainly based on the theoretical analysis of the circulation of macro Liquidity Based on the theory of money endogenous, which provides the basis for the construction of the macro liquidity management framework of the financial management department. The third part is based on the theoretical analysis, and constructs the management framework for the macro liquidity of the financial management department, from the daily management of the liquidity. The main contents of the macro liquidity management framework and tools are discussed in 5 aspects: trend management, macro Prudential Management, liquidity crisis management and international liquidity management. The fourth part is a summary and analysis of the liquidity management framework of the major central banks in foreign countries and the unconventional flows since the global financial crisis in 2007. The fifth part analyses the changes in the framework and tools of the liquidity management since the reform and opening up of the people's Bank of China, and thinks about the future macro liquidity management of the people's Bank. The sixth part, on the basis of the macro liquidity theory, the management framework and the historical experience at home and abroad, is based on strengthening and improving China. There are at least three main innovations in the framework and tools of macro liquidity management. The main innovations of this paper are at least three aspects: first, in theory, this paper discarded the mainstream framework of the current research on monetary economics in Colleges and universities, and analyzed the currency, credit creation and social general flow by using the post Keynes's framework of internal physiological theory of credit money. The relationship between mobility, further clarifies the relationship between money and credit, and draws a conclusion that the financial market friction will lead to the substitution effect between credit expansion and financial stability, and further advances the inference that the base currency advocated by monetarism is based on the view of the amount of money (the stock of the goods) and the neo classical integrated doctrine. Field liquidity demand management interest rates, the two existing liquidity management frameworks, have defects in dealing with external shocks. Therefore, the financial management departments need a macro liquidity management framework that can manage money, manage credit and manage credit. Second, the theoretical framework of macro liquidity management is constructed in the standard. Macro liquidity management is constructed. At least three components are needed. The first part is the ability to use monetary policy to manage monetary price - interest rate (price management in the same market) through operation of the same market, so as to manage money and indirectly regulate credit creation; the second part is to choose the right tool to manage the whole financial system in the macro Prudential framework. The credit supply (the total credit management of the financial system); the third part is the construction of the liquidity rescue channel, which can avoid the liquidity crisis of individual financial institutions and the systemic liquidity crisis. Third. On the application, the system summarizes the liquidity management system of the main central banks abroad, and combs the Chinese liquidity management system. As well as the evolution of its main tools, it is proposed that China's future macro liquidity framework should be able to manage the short-term monetary price, manage credit, manage the total credit amount of the financial system, and further analyze the transformation path and the preparation of the system for the smooth transition, and the transfer of the management framework for the people's Bank. The main theoretical significance of this paper lies in three aspects: first, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the liquidity management of monetarism and neoclassical credit theory and monetary theory, and clearly suggests that the current monetary policy framework will lead to the instability of the financial system and increase the economy. The fluctuation range of the system is second. This paper develops the framework of the endogenous monetary theory, linking the activities of the financial institutions including the banks and the fluctuation of the real economy. It is proposed that the financial management department need to relax the field of vision, not only to manage the interest rate or the total amount of money, but should be within the scientific and reasonable scope of the total credit. Management interest rate to manage liquidity. Third, this paper puts forward the main scope, contents and tools of the financial management department for macro liquidity management. This paper has important practical significance. First, it provides a guiding framework for the future macro financial management. The total amount management of the field provides a practical practical toolbox. Second, the most important practical significance is to provide guidance for the current reform of the Chinese financial management system. China's financial management framework is currently facing two main tasks, one is the transformation from the quantitative management to the price type management, and the two is the development, that is, the guarantee is to be guaranteed. On the basis of price stability and financial stability to meet the needs of China's future financial innovation and development, the macro liquidity management framework provided in this paper provides a feasible path for the deepening of the reform and development of the two tasks of China's financial system.
【學位授予單位】：中國社會科學院研究生院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.2
，
本文編號：2175326
[Abstract]:In 2007, the subprime crisis, which originated in the United States, quickly evolved into a global financial crisis. The world economy still lurched in the muddy development of the world. The financial crisis had a huge impact on the monetary economy from theory to practice. The central banks and international financial organizations took the lead in the practice of liquidity management. The academic circles also began to repair the original mainstream "new Vicker Searl doctrine" (neo classical comprehensive) framework, and also began to develop new theoretical framework to summarize and guide the practice of liquidity management innovation. In the background of financial innovation, this paper develops the post Keynes's credit currency in depth. In the theory of endogenous, it is proposed that under the background of financial innovation, money and finance are not only the veil of the real economy, but the semi closed system that is connected to the real economy, but at the same time it can operate itself. At the same time, because of the existence of financial friction, the financial system is more likely to produce huge fluctuations than the real economy, that is to say, the financial sector will occur in the future. The probability of the financial crisis mode carried by the volatility to the real economy will be much higher than the economic crisis mode that the earlier real economic fluctuations transmit to the financial sector. For the central bank, the future task must manage the liquidity of the financial sector (financial stability) in addition to the liquidity of the real economy (stable price). The management framework of macro liquidity and the management of price stability and financial stability will be the direction of innovation and evolution of the financial management system. In order to provide macro liquidity management to the financial management department, this paper mainly analyzes the three parts and six aspects. Part one is related to the research of macro liquidity management. The second part is mainly based on the theoretical analysis of the circulation of macro Liquidity Based on the theory of money endogenous, which provides the basis for the construction of the macro liquidity management framework of the financial management department. The third part is based on the theoretical analysis, and constructs the management framework for the macro liquidity of the financial management department, from the daily management of the liquidity. The main contents of the macro liquidity management framework and tools are discussed in 5 aspects: trend management, macro Prudential Management, liquidity crisis management and international liquidity management. The fourth part is a summary and analysis of the liquidity management framework of the major central banks in foreign countries and the unconventional flows since the global financial crisis in 2007. The fifth part analyses the changes in the framework and tools of the liquidity management since the reform and opening up of the people's Bank of China, and thinks about the future macro liquidity management of the people's Bank. The sixth part, on the basis of the macro liquidity theory, the management framework and the historical experience at home and abroad, is based on strengthening and improving China. There are at least three main innovations in the framework and tools of macro liquidity management. The main innovations of this paper are at least three aspects: first, in theory, this paper discarded the mainstream framework of the current research on monetary economics in Colleges and universities, and analyzed the currency, credit creation and social general flow by using the post Keynes's framework of internal physiological theory of credit money. The relationship between mobility, further clarifies the relationship between money and credit, and draws a conclusion that the financial market friction will lead to the substitution effect between credit expansion and financial stability, and further advances the inference that the base currency advocated by monetarism is based on the view of the amount of money (the stock of the goods) and the neo classical integrated doctrine. Field liquidity demand management interest rates, the two existing liquidity management frameworks, have defects in dealing with external shocks. Therefore, the financial management departments need a macro liquidity management framework that can manage money, manage credit and manage credit. Second, the theoretical framework of macro liquidity management is constructed in the standard. Macro liquidity management is constructed. At least three components are needed. The first part is the ability to use monetary policy to manage monetary price - interest rate (price management in the same market) through operation of the same market, so as to manage money and indirectly regulate credit creation; the second part is to choose the right tool to manage the whole financial system in the macro Prudential framework. The credit supply (the total credit management of the financial system); the third part is the construction of the liquidity rescue channel, which can avoid the liquidity crisis of individual financial institutions and the systemic liquidity crisis. Third. On the application, the system summarizes the liquidity management system of the main central banks abroad, and combs the Chinese liquidity management system. As well as the evolution of its main tools, it is proposed that China's future macro liquidity framework should be able to manage the short-term monetary price, manage credit, manage the total credit amount of the financial system, and further analyze the transformation path and the preparation of the system for the smooth transition, and the transfer of the management framework for the people's Bank. The main theoretical significance of this paper lies in three aspects: first, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the liquidity management of monetarism and neoclassical credit theory and monetary theory, and clearly suggests that the current monetary policy framework will lead to the instability of the financial system and increase the economy. The fluctuation range of the system is second. This paper develops the framework of the endogenous monetary theory, linking the activities of the financial institutions including the banks and the fluctuation of the real economy. It is proposed that the financial management department need to relax the field of vision, not only to manage the interest rate or the total amount of money, but should be within the scientific and reasonable scope of the total credit. Management interest rate to manage liquidity. Third, this paper puts forward the main scope, contents and tools of the financial management department for macro liquidity management. This paper has important practical significance. First, it provides a guiding framework for the future macro financial management. The total amount management of the field provides a practical practical toolbox. Second, the most important practical significance is to provide guidance for the current reform of the Chinese financial management system. China's financial management framework is currently facing two main tasks, one is the transformation from the quantitative management to the price type management, and the two is the development, that is, the guarantee is to be guaranteed. On the basis of price stability and financial stability to meet the needs of China's future financial innovation and development, the macro liquidity management framework provided in this paper provides a feasible path for the deepening of the reform and development of the two tasks of China's financial system.
【學位授予單位】：中國社會科學院研究生院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.2
，
本文編號：2175326
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