【摘要】：自2005年匯改開始,人民幣開啟了持續(xù)升值的步伐。截至2012年底,人民幣對美元的名義匯率達(dá)到了6.3125,累計升值29.77%。貿(mào)易出口將面臨怎樣的影響備受矚目。深圳作為中國的一個重要經(jīng)濟(jì)城市,其經(jīng)濟(jì)外向程度高,故人民幣升值可能造成的影響是深圳必須面對的課題。深入分析人民幣升值對深圳外貿(mào)出口行業(yè)的影響,找到應(yīng)對策略,使深圳政府及出口企業(yè)能從容應(yīng)對其升值,更好地促進(jìn)本市出口行業(yè)的發(fā)展。本文著重研究深圳的出口是否受人民幣升值的影響,并分析其影響程度以及對不同行業(yè)影響的差異,從而得出結(jié)論。本文先通過縱向和橫向比較研究人民幣升值對深圳出口影響的大小,橫向分別挑選了廣東省的廣州、陽江和汕頭,長三角的杭州和蘇州,環(huán)渤海的天津和青島為比較對象,發(fā)現(xiàn)跟部分省內(nèi)沿海城市相比人民幣升值對深圳出口的負(fù)面影響比較大,但跟長三角、環(huán)渤海的沿海城市相比,負(fù)面影響相對較小。緊接著,以便攜式電腦、手持或車載式無線電話機(jī)、家具及其零件、服裝及衣著附件、貴金屬或包貴金屬的首飾5個不同行業(yè)為例,分析人民幣升值對不同行業(yè)影響的異同。在理論和和定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,采用引力模型對2000-2012年深圳與11個國家的出口貿(mào)易進(jìn)行了實證分析,通過對面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行多元回歸分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一,人民幣升值的確會給深圳出口造成不利的影響；第二,雙方的GDP和人均GDP之差的絕對值對深圳出口產(chǎn)生正面影響,絕對距離和人民幣對美元實際匯率的升值對深圳出口起負(fù)面作用。最后,本文對理論、定性、實證分析的結(jié)果進(jìn)行了總結(jié),并提出了強化政策引導(dǎo)支持、加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、合理利用衍生金融工具等多條政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has opened the pace of sustained appreciation. By the end of 2012, the yuan's nominal exchange rate against the dollar had reached 6.3125, a cumulative gain of 29.77 yuan. How trade exports will be affected has attracted much attention. As an important economic city in China, Shenzhen has a high degree of economic extroversion, so the possible impact of RMB appreciation is a subject that Shenzhen must face. This paper analyzes deeply the influence of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's foreign trade export industry, and finds out the countermeasures to enable Shenzhen government and export enterprises to cope with its appreciation calmly, and to promote the development of export industry in this city better. This paper mainly studies whether Shenzhen's exports are affected by RMB appreciation, and analyzes the influence degree and the difference on different industries, so as to draw a conclusion. This paper first studies the impact of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's export through longitudinal and horizontal comparison, and selects Guangzhou, Yangjiang and Shantou in Guangdong Province, Hangzhou and Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, Tianjin and Qingdao around the Bohai Sea as comparative objects. It is found that the negative impact of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's exports is greater than that of coastal cities in some provinces, but the negative impact is relatively small compared with the coastal cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Sea. Then, taking five different industries as examples, such as portable computer, hand-held or vehicle-borne wireless telephone, furniture and its parts, clothing and clothing accessories, precious metal or precious metal jewelry, this paper analyzes the similarities and differences of the impact of RMB appreciation on different industries. On the basis of theory and qualitative analysis, this paper makes an empirical analysis of Shenzhen's export trade with 11 countries from 2000 to 2012 by using gravity model. The results of multivariate regression analysis of panel data are as follows: first, The appreciation of the RMB will indeed have a negative impact on Shenzhen's exports. Second, the absolute value of the difference between GDP and per capita GDP between the two sides has a positive impact on Shenzhen's exports. The absolute distance and the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar have a negative effect on Shenzhen's exports. Finally, this paper summarizes the results of theoretical, qualitative and empirical analysis, and puts forward a number of policy suggestions, such as strengthening policy guidance support, speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure, and making rational use of derivative financial instruments.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.62

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 牛擁;毛德勇;;人民幣升值對中國制造業(yè)出口競爭力的影響[J];貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報;2013年06期

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本文編號：2168368