發(fā)布時間：2018-06-12 03:00

  本文選題：短期國際資本流動 + 匯率市場化��； 參考：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：國際間的資本流動從最開始相互的貿(mào)易商品償付開始,發(fā)展到了以生產(chǎn)為目的的國際直接投資,繼而以套利投機為主要目的的短期國際資本投資。改革開放以來,我國的資本管制政策相對較為嚴格,但是仍然存在短期國際資本從其他渠道較大規(guī)模進出我國的現(xiàn)象。1997年東南亞金融危機爆發(fā),短期國際資本大規(guī)模外逃,國內(nèi)外學者開始關(guān)注我國短期國際資本的流動。2001年我國加入世界貿(mào)易組織,為了更好地與全球經(jīng)濟緊密相融,政府開始逐漸放松對資本賬戶的管制。2002年,我國短期國際資本的流動方向發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn),由連續(xù)12年的短期國際資本流出變?yōu)榱魅搿?005年,我國的匯率制度由盯住美元變?yōu)閰⒖家换@子貨幣,短期國際資本的流入趨勢變得更加強勁。2007年美國爆發(fā)次貸危機并蔓延至全球,金融機構(gòu)“去杠桿化”趨勢增強,我國的短期國際資本又呈現(xiàn)出流出的勢頭。但隨著中國經(jīng)濟狀況的改善,特別是2010年人民幣升值預(yù)期以及基準利率提高的情況下,短期國際資本開始重新流入國內(nèi)。2011年下半年起,由于對我國經(jīng)濟硬著陸的擔憂,短期國際資本重新呈現(xiàn)流出的趨勢。短期國際資本流動是一把“雙刃劍”。一方面,適當規(guī)模的短期國際資本流入有利于彌補國內(nèi)資金不足,提高資本的國際運轉(zhuǎn)效率,促進我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。另一方面,短期國際資本具有潛入規(guī)模巨大、流動速度加快以及反轉(zhuǎn)性強的特點,對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定形成了巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。如果短期國際資本流動規(guī)模超出了市場承受能力,可能會導(dǎo)致該國經(jīng)濟過熱、通貨膨脹、宏觀經(jīng)濟政策失靈,經(jīng)濟脆弱性增加,而短期資本流動的突然逆轉(zhuǎn)則可能會引發(fā)我國匯率制度崩潰,貨幣危機發(fā)生,甚至是全面的經(jīng)濟危機。正因為對短期國際資本流動負面效應(yīng)的擔憂,學者對于今年來不斷加快推進地匯率市場化改革存在爭議。學者認為匯率市場化改革會使匯率波動頻繁,匯率的波動則會通過資本流動的渠道尤其是短期國際資本流動的渠道影響一國的金融穩(wěn)定,因此對待匯率市場化改革應(yīng)該謹慎。也有學者認為,匯率市場化改革從而提高匯率的市場化水平,正是緩解短期國際資本過度流動的有效工具。基于以上爭議,研究匯率市場化對短期國際資本流動的影響,深入探討短期國際資本流動的影響因素,有利于理性看待匯率市場化改革,也為短期國際資本流動的管理提供理論的基礎(chǔ)和指導(dǎo)。本文的結(jié)構(gòu)及主要內(nèi)容如下。第一章是導(dǎo)論,介紹本文的研究背景、研究意義、內(nèi)容和方法,研究思路,可能的創(chuàng)新和不足。第二章是理論基礎(chǔ)和研究綜述。首先介紹短期國際資本流動的相關(guān)驅(qū)動理論,包括利率驅(qū)動理論、利率匯率聯(lián)合驅(qū)動理論、資產(chǎn)組合驅(qū)動理論以及其他相關(guān)理論。然后,對匯率市場化的界定和衡量的相關(guān)文獻進行綜述,在此基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)匯率市場化與短期國際資本流動關(guān)系的研究成果進行總結(jié)。最后,對短期國際資本流動的其他影響因素的相關(guān)文獻進行綜述,以期從全方位的角度解釋短期國際資本流動的動因。第三章首先理論分析匯率市場化對短期國際資本流動的影響,在此基礎(chǔ)上,分別對短期國際資本流動和匯率市場化進行分析,最后運用彈性分析法分析匯率市場化對短期國際資本流動的影響。第四章在對短期國際資本流動的其他因素進行理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,進一步實證研究包括匯率市場化水平在內(nèi)的匯率因素、利率因素以及資產(chǎn)價格因素對短期國際資本流動的影響。第五章是結(jié)論與政策建議。本文的主要結(jié)論是包括匯率升值預(yù)期和匯率市場化水平在內(nèi)的匯率因素是短期國際資本流動的主要解釋因素,匯率市場化水平的提高能夠減少短期國際資本流動的波動,這在一定程度上說明匯率市場化是防止短期國際資本過度波動的有效工具,我國應(yīng)該完善人民幣匯率市場化形成機制。同時,包括股票價格和房地產(chǎn)價格在內(nèi)的資產(chǎn)價格也對短期國際資本流動產(chǎn)生了重要影響,資產(chǎn)價格的提高會吸引短期國際資本的流入。利率因素對短期國際資本流動的影響相對較弱,利差的增加會吸引短期國際資本流入,但隨著利率市場化進程的不斷加快,對短期國際資本流動的管理必須重視利率因素的影響。
[Abstract]:The international capital flow has begun from the beginning of the first mutual trade goods, and it has developed to the international direct investment of production as the purpose, and then the short-term international capital investment which is the main purpose of arbitrage speculation. Since the reform and opening up, China's capital control policy is relatively strict, but there still exist short term international capital from other channels. The phenomenon of the Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out in.1997, and the short-term international capital fled in a large scale. Scholars at home and abroad began to pay attention to the flow of short term international capital in China for.2001 years to join the world trade organization. In order to better integrate with the global economy, the government began to gradually relax the control of capital account.20. In the 02 year, the flow direction of China's short-term international capital was reversed, and the short-term international capital outflow was changed into.2005 years for 12 years. The exchange rate system of our country changed from peg to the dollar to a reference basket, the inflow trend of short-term international capital became stronger and the subprime crisis broke out in the United States and spread to the world, and the financial institutions were spread to the world. The trend of "de leveraging" has increased, and the short-term international capital in China has shown the momentum of outflow. However, with the improvement of China's economic situation, especially in 2010, the expectation of RMB appreciation and the improvement of the benchmark interest rate, the short-term international capital began to reflow into the domestic second half of the.2011 year, due to the concern about the hard landing of our country. In the short term international capital flow is a "double-edged sword". On the one hand, the appropriate scale of short-term international capital inflow can help to make up the shortage of domestic capital, improve the efficiency of international capital operation and promote the economic development of our country. On the other hand, short term international capital has a huge latent scale, If the size of the short-term international capital flows beyond the capacity of the market, it may lead to the overheating of the economy, the inflation, the failure of macroeconomic policy, the increase of economic fragility, and the sudden reversal of the short-term capital flow. It can cause the collapse of our exchange rate system, the currency crisis, and even a comprehensive economic crisis. Because of the concerns about the negative effects of short-term international capital flows, scholars have been disputed about the continuous acceleration of the reform of the exchange rate marketization this year. Scholars believe that exchange rate marketization reform will make exchange rate fluctuate frequently and exchange rate fluctuations A country's financial stability will be affected by the channel of capital flow, especially the channel of short-term international capital flow. Therefore, the reform of exchange rate marketization should be prudent. Some scholars believe that the reform of exchange rate marketization can improve the market level of exchange rate, which is an effective tool to alleviate the excessive flow of short-term international capital. This paper studies the influence of exchange rate marketization on short-term international capital flow and deeply discusses the influence factors of short-term international capital flow, which is beneficial to the rational view of exchange rate market reform, and also provides a theoretical basis and guidance for the management of short-term international capital flow. The structure and main contents of this paper are as follows. Background, research significance, content and methods, research ideas, possible innovations and deficiencies. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and research review. First, it introduces the related driving theories of short-term international capital flows, including interest rate driven theory, interest rate exchange drive theory, asset group driving theory and other related theories. Then, the exchange rate market On the basis of the summary of the relevant literature of the definition and measurement of the field, the research results of the exchange rate marketization and the short-term international capital flow are summarized. Finally, the relevant literature on the other factors of the short-term international capital flow is reviewed in order to explain the motivation of the short-term international capital flow from a comprehensive perspective. The third chapter analyzes the effect of exchange rate marketization on short-term international capital flow. On this basis, it analyzes short-term international capital flows and exchange rate marketization respectively. Finally, the effect of exchange rate marketization on short-term international capital flows is analyzed by elastic analysis. The fourth chapter is on other factors of short-term international capital flow. On the basis of theoretical analysis, further empirical research includes exchange rate factors, interest rate factors and the effect of asset price factors on short-term international capital flow. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. The main conclusions of this paper are the exchange rate factors including exchange rate appreciation expectation and exchange rate marketization level. It is the main factor to explain the short-term international capital flow. The improvement of the exchange rate market level can reduce the volatility of the short-term international capital flow. This shows that the exchange rate marketization is an effective tool to prevent the excessive volatility of short-term international capital, and China should improve the formation mechanism of the exchange rate of people's currency. Asset prices, such as prices and real estate prices, also have an important impact on short-term international capital flows, and the increase in asset prices will attract short-term international capital inflows. The effect of interest rates on short-term international capital flows is relatively weak. The increase in interest rates will attract short-term international capital inflow, but with the process of interest rate marketization. Accelerating the management of short-term international capital flows must attach importance to interest rate factors.
【學位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F831.6

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