本文選題：宏觀經(jīng)濟政策 + 外部平衡　； 參考：《南開大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：當前世界范圍內(nèi)的許多國家存在外部失衡現(xiàn)象,典型的例子是中國經(jīng)歷持續(xù)的經(jīng)常賬戶盈余。外部失衡會帶來諸多危害性的后果,包括釀成經(jīng)濟危機和增加金融系統(tǒng)風險,其對本輪全球經(jīng)濟危機發(fā)揮了導火索的作用。一些研究指出政府經(jīng)濟政策也是導致外部失衡的原因,但現(xiàn)有文獻未系統(tǒng)研究政府經(jīng)濟政策對外部平衡的作用機制,也未定量考察政府經(jīng)濟政策對其外部平衡的貢獻度。對于中國這樣一個經(jīng)歷持續(xù)外部盈余,而且政府在經(jīng)濟活動中扮演重要角色的大國,深入地分析經(jīng)濟政策對外部平衡的影響具有現(xiàn)實意義,研究結論也可以為中國的外部失衡調(diào)整提供借鑒。 本文回顧中國財政、貨幣和匯率政策的特征,從而為后續(xù)章節(jié)構建理論和經(jīng)驗模型提供現(xiàn)實基礎。中國財政政策的主要特征表現(xiàn)為社會保障性支出在財政支出中占比過低,同時政府預算赤字和公債負擔都比較低；中國貨幣政策的主要特征為政府長期倚重數(shù)量型政策,將貨幣總量M2作為貨幣政策的中介目標,并且運用多種操作工具以實現(xiàn)貨幣政策的多重任務屬性；中國匯率政策的主要特征包括管理型匯率、外匯儲備積累和資本管制,中國政府選擇性地允許資本流入并限制私人持有外匯資產(chǎn),此外,為了維持相對于美元的匯率穩(wěn)定,央行在外匯市場上頻繁干預并且積累大量的外匯儲備。 本文核心部分為第四章至第六章。第四章和第五章分別探討財政政策、貨幣政策和匯率政策影響外部平衡的機制,從理論和經(jīng)驗上確定每種政策影響外部平衡的方向,從而為第六章的符號限定方法核算經(jīng)濟政策的影響程度提供依據(jù)。關于經(jīng)濟政策如何影響外部平衡,本文主要的結論包括財政支出增加導致外部盈余減少,本國貨幣供給增加導致外部盈余增加,匯率貶值導致外部盈余增加。第六章運用綜合的計量框架來考察政府宏觀經(jīng)濟政策對中國外部失衡的貢獻度,從而為討論政府在失衡調(diào)整中應發(fā)揮怎樣的作用提供政策建議。樣本期間的經(jīng)驗結果表明,貨幣政策對中國外部平衡的影響最大,財政政策和匯率政策的作用力度相當,整體上經(jīng)濟政策因素可以解釋50%左右的中國外部平衡變動。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處包括以下3方面： 1.當前文獻大都從私人或企業(yè)的視角研究外部失衡,本文強調(diào)經(jīng)濟政策因素的重要性,并從政府視角系統(tǒng)分析經(jīng)濟政策對外部平衡的作用機制,從而提供更為全面的外部失衡調(diào)整思路。 2.本文構建符合中國政策特征的理論模型,例如貨幣總量調(diào)控、資本管制和管理型匯率等行為特征,探討每一種政府經(jīng)濟政策影響外部平衡的機制,并為經(jīng)驗部分提供可供檢驗的命題。 3.在經(jīng)驗檢驗部分,運用較新的計量方法例如面板分位數(shù)模型、面板條件同質(zhì)性向量自回歸模型(PCHVAR)和貝葉斯符號限制向量自回歸模型(SBVAR)等,考察政策因素對外部平衡的影響,并分析中國外部失衡不同解釋因素的相對重要性。 除了現(xiàn)有的促進金融發(fā)展、改善制度質(zhì)量、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結構以及放開計劃生育限制等緩解中國外部盈余的政策建議之外,通過本文的理論和經(jīng)驗分析,并結合中國經(jīng)濟運行的現(xiàn)實狀況,我們對中國政府在外部失衡調(diào)整中的作用提出以下政策建議： 在財政政策方面,加大社會保障支出是調(diào)整外部失衡的可行財政政策措施,既通過財政支出渠道降低外部盈余,又通過削減居民預防性儲蓄進一步降低外部盈余。在貨幣政策方面,放緩貨幣投放速度是降低外部盈余的有效手段,推進人民幣國際化也有利于減少美元流動性需求所引致的外匯儲備積累。在匯率政策方面,人民幣應當具備更靈活的匯率形成機制并允許漸進升值。
[Abstract]:There are external imbalances in many countries around the world. The typical example is China's continuous current account surplus. External imbalances will bring many harmful consequences, including the economic crisis and the increase of financial system risks, which play a leading role in the global economic crisis. Some studies point out the government. Economic policy is also the cause of external imbalances, but the existing literature does not systematically study the mechanism of the external balance of the government's economic policy, nor does it examine the contribution of the government's economic policy to its external balance. For a country such as China, which has experienced the external surplus, and the government plays an important role in economic activities, Further analysis of the impact of external balance of economic policy is of practical significance, and the conclusion can also provide reference for China's external imbalance adjustment.
This paper reviews the characteristics of China's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies, which provides a realistic basis for the construction of theoretical and empirical models in the following chapters. The main characteristics of China's fiscal policy are that social security expenditure is too low in fiscal expenditure, and both the government budget deficit and the public debt burden are low; the main monetary policy of China is the main factor. It is characterized by the government's long-term reliance on quantitative policy, the M2 as the intermediary target of monetary policy, and the use of various operating tools to achieve the multiple task properties of monetary policy; the main features of China's exchange rate policy include the management exchange rate, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and capital control, and the Chinese government selectively permits capital flow. In addition, in order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate relative to the dollar, the central bank intervenes frequently in the foreign exchange market and accumulates a large amount of foreign exchange reserves.
The core part of this paper is from fourth chapters to sixth chapters. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter respectively discuss the mechanism of fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policy, which affect external balance in theory and experience, so as to provide the basis for the degree of the influence of the sixth chapter on the economic policy of the sixth chapter. How economic policy affects external balance, the main conclusion of this paper is that the increase of fiscal expenditure leads to the decrease of external surplus, the increase of domestic money supply leads to the increase of external surplus, and the exchange rate devaluation leads to the increase of external surplus. The sixth chapter uses a comprehensive measurement framework to examine the contribution of the government macroeconomic policy to the external imbalance of China. In order to discuss how the government should play its role in the imbalance adjustment, the empirical results of the sample period show that monetary policy has the greatest impact on China's external balance, and the role of fiscal policy and exchange rate policy is quite strong, and the overall economic policy factors can explain about 50% of the external balance changes in China.
The innovation of this paper includes the following 3 aspects:
1. the current literature mostly studies external imbalances from the perspective of private or enterprise. This article emphasizes the importance of economic policy factors and analyzes the mechanism of the external balance of economic policy from the perspective of the government, thus providing a more comprehensive adjustment of external imbalance.
2. this paper constructs a theoretical model which conforms to the characteristics of China's policy, such as the characteristics of the regulation of the total amount of money, the capital control and the management exchange rate, and discusses the mechanism of the influence of each government's economic policy on the external balance, and provides a propositional proposition for the empirical part.
3. in the empirical test part, using new measurement methods such as panel quantile model, panel condition homogeneity vector autoregressive model (PCHVAR) and Bayesian symbolic restriction vector autoregressive model (SBVAR), the influence of policy factors on external balance is investigated, and the relative importance of different interpretations of external imbalances in China is analyzed.
In addition to the existing policy proposals to promote financial development, improve the quality of the system, adjust the industrial structure and release the restriction of family planning restrictions on the external surplus of China, through the theoretical and empirical analysis of this article and the actual situation of China's economic operation, we put forward the following policy on the role of the Chinese government in the adjustment of external imbalances. Suggestions:
In fiscal policy, increasing the social security expenditure is a feasible fiscal policy measure to adjust the external imbalance, not only to reduce external surplus through the financial expenditure channels, but also to reduce the external surplus by reducing the residents' Preventive Savings. In monetary policy, the slowing down of the speed of money delivery is an effective means to reduce external surplus and propelling people. The internationalization of the people's currency also helps to reduce the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves caused by the liquidity demand of the US dollar. In terms of exchange rate policy, the RMB should have a more flexible exchange rate formation mechanism and allow for gradual appreciation.
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F123.16;F832.6

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