本文選題：人民幣 + 跨境結(jié)算�。� 參考：《蘇州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易的不斷發(fā)展和綜合國力的不斷提升，人民幣的國際地位也日益受到重視。最初在邊境貿(mào)易中的頻繁使用，，已經(jīng)使得人民幣成為周邊地區(qū)的“硬通貨”，而在席卷全球的金融危機(jī)后人民幣依舊保持升值趨勢，也為人民幣走向國際創(chuàng)造了良好的條件。2009年7月跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)正式啟動，我國終于邁出人民幣國際化的第一步。至今4年多的時間里，人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)展順利，無論是貿(mào)易結(jié)算還是直接投資規(guī)模均取得爆發(fā)式增長。雖然人民幣現(xiàn)已成為全球十大最常用支付貨幣之一，但其作為世界支付貨幣在全球的使用比例僅1%左右，與美元、歐元等主要國際結(jié)算貨幣相比仍存在很大的差距，要進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展，實現(xiàn)人民幣國際化的目標(biāo)仍有很長的路要走。因此，有必要對人民幣跨境結(jié)算的影響因素和發(fā)展對策進(jìn)行深入研究。 本文首先對人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展歷程進(jìn)行回顧，并就其發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及對我國的影響進(jìn)行分析總結(jié)。接下來從人民幣的認(rèn)可程度、人民幣的流通程度以及相關(guān)配套措施的完善程度三個方面對人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的影響因素進(jìn)行理論分析。為了對理論分析的結(jié)果進(jìn)行驗證，本文選取2010年10月至2013年9月的月度數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用VAR模型，通過ADF單位根檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)分析、方差分解，從狹義上的人民幣跨境結(jié)算角度出發(fā)，對影響跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算規(guī)模的因素進(jìn)行實證研究，得出離岸人民幣市場的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、人民幣匯率的變動以及我國貿(mào)易發(fā)展水平均會對人民幣跨境結(jié)算規(guī)模造成影響，尤其是離岸人民幣市場的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，影響最為顯著。最后，結(jié)合理論和實證研究的結(jié)論，就離岸人民幣市場的發(fā)展、維持人民幣匯率長期穩(wěn)定、提高我國對外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平等方面，對進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's foreign trade and comprehensive national strength, the international status of RMB has been paid more and more attention. The initial frequent use of the renminbi in border trade has made the renminbi the "hard currency" of the surrounding region, while the renminbi has continued to appreciate after the global financial crisis. In July 2009, cross-border trade RMB settlement business officially started, China finally took the first step of RMB internationalization. For more than four years now, RMB cross-border settlement business has progressed smoothly, both trade settlement and direct investment scale has achieved explosive growth. Although the RMB has now become one of the top ten most commonly used payment currencies in the world, the proportion of its use in the world as a world payment currency is only about 1%, which is still quite different from that of the major international settlement currencies such as the US dollar, the euro and other major international settlement currencies. There is still a long way to go to achieve the goal of RMB internationalization to further expand the development of RMB cross-border settlement business. Therefore, it is necessary to further study the influencing factors and development countermeasures of RMB cross-border settlement. Firstly, this paper reviews the development of RMB cross-border settlement business, and analyzes and summarizes its development status and its impact on China. Then the paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors of RMB cross-border settlement business from three aspects: the degree of RMB recognition, the degree of RMB circulation and the degree of perfection of relevant supporting measures. In order to verify the results of theoretical analysis, this paper selects the monthly data from October 2010 to September 2013, uses VAR model, through ADF unit root test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, From the point of view of RMB cross-border settlement in a narrow sense, this paper makes an empirical study on the factors affecting the settlement scale of RMB in cross-border trade, and concludes the development of the offshore RMB market. The change of RMB exchange rate and the level of China's trade development will have an impact on the scale of cross-border settlement of RMB, especially the development of offshore RMB market. Finally, based on the conclusions of theoretical and empirical studies, this paper discusses the development of offshore RMB market, maintaining the long-term stability of RMB exchange rate, and improving the level of China's foreign economic development. To further promote the development of RMB cross-border settlement business policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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