發(fā)布時間：2018-05-13 07:20

  本文選題：人民幣國際化 + 貨幣合作　； 參考：《中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)保持高速增長。在堅持“一國兩制”的原則下,兩岸四地經(jīng)貿(mào)往來和資本流動日益密切,經(jīng)濟(jì)和資本的融合程度逐步加深,已提升到制度建設(shè)層面。但是,在兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融融合程度不斷加深的同時,兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)圈內(nèi)四種貨幣共存的弊端逐漸顯現(xiàn):一方面,兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)圈四種貨幣共存,區(qū)域內(nèi)貿(mào)易結(jié)算和資本流動必須進(jìn)行貨幣兌換,從而增加了兩岸四地貿(mào)易往來和資本流動的成本,降低了貿(mào)易往來和資本流動效率,在很大程度上限制了區(qū)域貿(mào)易自由化和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展和深化;另一方面,四地匯率制度安排存在差異,增加了匯率波動風(fēng)險,進(jìn)而削弱了經(jīng)濟(jì)圈應(yīng)對外部沖擊的能力。兩岸四地四種貨幣并存現(xiàn)象的主要弊端源自于制度性缺陷、價格信號紊亂和國際游資的沖擊,具有內(nèi)生不穩(wěn)定性,而這種內(nèi)生性不穩(wěn)定將會引起區(qū)域金融體系不穩(wěn)定性。在經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融全球化背景下,由于各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的發(fā)展不均衡,單個國家或地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)能力有限,僅依靠國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、世界銀行(World Bank)和發(fā)達(dá)國家的外在援助來消除金融危機(jī)的影響是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠的,各地區(qū)貨幣當(dāng)局逐漸認(rèn)識到區(qū)域貨幣合作的重要意義。人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施為兩岸四地貨幣合作創(chuàng)造了新的契機(jī)和條件。中國內(nèi)地政府于2005年實(shí)施匯率制度改革,并于2008年之后后,推出了人民幣跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算、簽署雙邊貨幣互換協(xié)議、發(fā)展香港人民幣離岸市場、推廣境外人民幣直接交易以及跨境投資人民幣結(jié)算、實(shí)施滬港通及近期人民幣加入SDR等一系列戰(zhàn)略措施。同時,面對全球金融危機(jī)的沖擊,中國采取了保持幣值穩(wěn)定的應(yīng)對措施,極大地提高了人民幣在國際上的信譽(yù)度,為人民幣國際化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)打下了良好的信譽(yù)基礎(chǔ)和經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)。在人民幣國際化背景下,研究兩岸四地貨幣合作問題,不僅具有前瞻性,同時具有重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和政策意義。人民幣國際化為人民幣成為區(qū)域主導(dǎo)貨幣創(chuàng)造了條件。本文將人民幣國際化問題與兩岸四地貨幣合作問題相結(jié)合,通過納入內(nèi)生性約束的動態(tài)最優(yōu)決策分析,為兩岸四地貨幣合作模式和路徑選擇提供了新的研究方向。按照此思路,本文針對該問題,主要從以下四個方面展開分析研究:(1)兩岸四地貨幣合作現(xiàn)狀;(2)人民幣國際化對兩岸四地貨幣合作的影響;(3)兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面是否已滿足貨幣合作的條件;(4)兩岸四地貨幣合作的模式和路徑的選擇�；谧顑�(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論,本文在梳理現(xiàn)有研究文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)上,綜合運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的統(tǒng)計分析、實(shí)證分析等方法,將人民幣國際化問題與兩岸四地貨幣合作問題結(jié)合研究,密切圍繞我國的實(shí)際國情,注重理論的可解釋性,思路對策的合理性,提出了兩岸四地貨幣合作模式與路徑。本文研究得出以下三點(diǎn)結(jié)論:(一)通過梳理兩岸四地貨幣合作的進(jìn)程可知,兩岸四地處于貨幣合作的初級層次,即兩岸四地貨幣合作僅僅處于貨幣合作問題的協(xié)商、協(xié)調(diào)以至共同行動階段;其次,基于單一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論,通過選取經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化、金融一體化和財政政策趨同性四個層面變量,本文分析當(dāng)前兩岸四地在各個層面的趨同性和差異性,靜態(tài)的考察兩岸四地貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)。統(tǒng)計分析得出,在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和財政政策趨同性三個層面,兩岸四地貨幣合作成本相對較低,在金融一體化層面,兩岸四地貨幣合作成本相對較高,但是從四個層面發(fā)展趨勢分析,各經(jīng)濟(jì)體在四個層面的趨同性呈現(xiàn)動態(tài)趨同態(tài)勢,兩岸四地貨幣合作的長期成本相對較低。因此,相對于當(dāng)前兩岸四地現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ),兩岸四地貨幣合作發(fā)展滯后,兩岸四地有必要進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)區(qū)域貨幣合作。(二)在前文現(xiàn)實(shí)統(tǒng)計分析基礎(chǔ)上,本文進(jìn)一步實(shí)證研究兩岸四地貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性。一方面,本文研究兩岸四地的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性,并對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動進(jìn)行分解,實(shí)證研究四類經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對稱性問題。經(jīng)研究得出,兩岸四地各經(jīng)濟(jì)體在長期內(nèi)存在共同趨勢,在短期內(nèi)存在共同周期,即其經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化程度較高,據(jù)此可知,兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)周期在樣本期間具有同步性,符合構(gòu)建最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)條件;通過采用結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸模型,分析經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對稱性,研究得出,兩岸四地各經(jīng)濟(jì)體在貨幣沖擊方面具有對稱性,在外部沖擊、供給沖擊以及需求沖擊方面尚不具有對稱性,即兩岸四地各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊尚未具有完全的對稱性。因此,兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)圈暫時不適合構(gòu)建最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū);另一方面,前文將經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對稱性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)視為外生給定,依據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn),判斷區(qū)域貨幣合作的可行性,盡管該方法有助于明確當(dāng)前兩岸四地貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ),但是此方法忽視了衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與貨幣聯(lián)盟之間的內(nèi)生性,即若當(dāng)前國家間的經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)性與貿(mào)易一體化呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,則雖然一國在加入最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)前不滿足加入最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),但是其在加入后可促進(jìn)其滿足標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(frankel和rose,1998),降低了研究結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性�；诖�,在前文分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了內(nèi)地與港澳臺地區(qū)貨幣合作是否存在內(nèi)生性。經(jīng)研究得出,中國內(nèi)地與香港、澳門地區(qū)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化程度的不斷加深,經(jīng)濟(jì)周期趨同程度會不斷提高,存在著最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的內(nèi)生性作用機(jī)制,三地適宜組建最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū),而臺灣地區(qū)與其他三地不存在最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)的內(nèi)生性作用機(jī)制,當(dāng)前階段不適宜組建最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)。綜上所述,在人民幣國際化背景下,中國內(nèi)地、香港和澳門地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)可以支持進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)貨幣合作,而臺灣地區(qū)與其他地區(qū)存在較大差異性,當(dāng)前進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)貨幣合作的成本較大,兩岸四地貨幣合作應(yīng)該分階段、分層次展開。(三)本文在明確了兩岸四地貨幣合作現(xiàn)狀和現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)之上,研究區(qū)域貨幣合作模式。一方面,在對當(dāng)前區(qū)域貨幣合作模式進(jìn)行辨析基礎(chǔ)上,基于貨幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性和轉(zhuǎn)換成本理論,構(gòu)建簡單數(shù)理模型,分析不同貨幣合作模式的福利效應(yīng)。研究得出,在區(qū)域貨幣合作過程進(jìn)程中,采用共同貨幣的福利水平明顯要大于流通兩種貨幣的福利水平,因而區(qū)域應(yīng)采取加強(qiáng)貨幣合作,構(gòu)建貨幣聯(lián)盟,采用共同貨幣。在共同貨幣的選擇方面,從成本最小化的角度考慮,由于貨幣存在“惰性”,先使用的貨幣具有先發(fā)優(yōu)勢,即當(dāng)前處于流通使用的貨幣較尚未流動使用的貨幣擁有更大的流通網(wǎng)絡(luò),因此以前者作為共同貨幣較后者即創(chuàng)建新貨幣具有更高的福利水平,因此貨幣合作應(yīng)選擇一種現(xiàn)已使用的,且用戶眾多的貨幣作為區(qū)域貨幣合作的核心貨幣;另一方面,盡管人民幣當(dāng)前尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)自由兌換,但是人民幣國際化進(jìn)程加速推進(jìn),為人民幣成為區(qū)域主導(dǎo)貨幣創(chuàng)造了潛在可能性,基于此,本文實(shí)證研究了人民幣在香港、澳門和臺灣的匯率安排中的動態(tài)作用。研究得出,人民幣對香港、澳門和臺灣地區(qū)的匯率安排中的影響顯著,意味著人民幣的隱性貨幣錨職能已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn),即人民幣正逐漸成為兩岸四地區(qū)域主導(dǎo)貨幣。因此,盡管人民幣尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)自由兌換,尚無法成為兩岸四地官方貨幣錨,但是在人民幣國際化背景下,人民幣正逐漸成為區(qū)域核心貨幣,在兩岸四地實(shí)施人民幣主導(dǎo)的貨幣合作具有可行性。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要體現(xiàn)在以下三個方面:(一)在研究視角方面,關(guān)于兩岸四地貨幣合作的現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)研究主要依據(jù)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論,對兩岸四地實(shí)施貨幣合作的現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行分析,判斷貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性,并以此為基礎(chǔ),借鑒當(dāng)前國際成功區(qū)域貨幣合作的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),研究兩岸四地貨幣合作模式及路徑的選擇,較少關(guān)注人民幣國際化對兩岸四地貨幣合作的動態(tài)影響。然而,貨幣國際化和區(qū)域貨幣合作兩者是相輔相成、相互促進(jìn)的,人民幣國際化為人民幣成為主導(dǎo)貨幣創(chuàng)造了可能,為兩岸四地貨幣合作提供新的契機(jī)和條件。本文把人民幣國際化問題與區(qū)域貨幣合作問題結(jié)合分析,通過納入內(nèi)生性約束的動態(tài)最優(yōu)決策分析,研究兩岸四地貨幣合作問題,為兩岸四地貨幣合作模式和路徑選擇提供了新的研究方向。(二)在研究內(nèi)容方面,本文基于現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)研究,進(jìn)行了補(bǔ)充和完善,主要體現(xiàn)在以下三個方面:第一,現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)一般從一個維度單獨(dú)分析兩岸四地貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性,降低了研究結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性,本文在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從靜態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對稱性和動態(tài)內(nèi)生性兩個維度,綜合判斷兩岸四地貨幣合作的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性,彌補(bǔ)了以往研究中的不足;第二,在兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)圈的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面因素分析方面,本文采用經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性與經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊對稱性兩個核心指標(biāo),分析兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)圈的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面因素;第三,本文將人民幣國際化與區(qū)域貨幣合作問題相結(jié)合,動態(tài)分析人民幣貨幣區(qū)構(gòu)建可行性,豐富了當(dāng)前研究內(nèi)容。(三)在研究方法方面,考慮到制度變遷在兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮了重大作用,兩岸四地經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中存在結(jié)構(gòu)性變化。傳統(tǒng)的固定參數(shù)模型的參數(shù)的估計值僅僅反應(yīng)了研究樣本期間的平均水平,不能反映動態(tài)變化,因此無法反映此類經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的時變效應(yīng),時變參數(shù)研究方法具有更好的適用性和說服力。因此,本文選擇具備時變參數(shù)的狀態(tài)空間模型,實(shí)證研究兩岸四地人民幣貨幣區(qū)構(gòu)建的可行性,在研究方法上彌補(bǔ)了以往研究的不足。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economy of the four sides of the two sides of the Straits has maintained high growth. Under the principle of "one country, two systems", the economic and trade exchanges and capital flow of the four sides of the Straits are increasingly close, the degree of integration of economy and capital has gradually deepened and has been promoted to the level of system construction. However, while the economic and financial integration of the four places on both sides of the Straits is deepening, two The disadvantages of the coexistence of four currencies in the economic circle of the four banks of the shore gradually manifest. On the one hand, the four currencies of the four economic circles of the two sides coexist, and the intra regional trade settlement and capital flow must be exchanged in currency, thus increasing the cost of trade and capital flows of the two sides of the two sides of the Straits, reducing the trade and capital flow efficiency, to a large extent. It restricts the further development and deepening of regional trade liberalization and regional economic integration; on the other hand, there are differences in the arrangement of the four land exchange rate system, which increases the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and then weakens the ability of the economic circle to deal with the external shocks. The main drawbacks of the coexistence of the four currencies of the four places on both sides of the Straits originate from the institutional defects and the price letter. In the context of economic and financial globalization, in the context of economic and financial globalization, the economic capacity of individual countries or regions is limited, only by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (Worl). D Bank) and the external aid of the developed countries to eliminate the impact of the financial crisis is far from enough. The regional monetary authorities have gradually realized the importance of regional monetary cooperation. The implementation of the RMB internationalization strategy has created a new opportunity and conditions for the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. In 2005, the Chinese mainland government implemented the reform of the exchange rate system, After 2008, it launched the cross-border trade settlement of RMB, signed bilateral currency swap agreements, developed the offshore RMB market in Hongkong, popularized the direct exchange of RMB overseas and cross-border investment in RMB settlement, and implemented the strategic measures of the Shanghai port and the recent RMB entry to the SDR. Meanwhile, the impact of the global financial crisis on the global financial crisis. China has taken measures to maintain the stability of the currency, which greatly improved the credibility of the RMB in the world and laid a good foundation for the promotion of the internationalization of the RMB. In the context of RMB internationalization, it is not only forward-looking but also an important reality to study the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. Significance and policy significance. RMB internationalization has created conditions for RMB to become a regional dominant currency. This paper combines the problem of RMB internationalization with the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, and provides a new research direction for the mode and path selection of the four monetary cooperation on both sides of the Straits by incorporating the dynamic optimal decision analysis of endogenous constraints. According to this idea, this paper focuses on the following four aspects: (1) the current situation of four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits; (2) the influence of RMB internationalization on the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits; (3) whether the economic fundamentals of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits have met the conditions of monetary cooperation; (4) the choice of the mode and path of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Based on the theory of optimal currency area, this paper, on the basis of combing the existing research literature, comprehensively using the statistical analysis and empirical analysis of modern economics, combines the problem of RMB internationalization with the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Straits, and closely surrounds the actual conditions of China, pays more attention to the interpretability of the theory, and puts forward the reasonableness of the thinking and countermeasures. This paper draws the following three conclusions: (1) by combing the process of monetary cooperation between the four sides of the Taiwan Straits, the four places on both sides of the Straits are in the primary level of monetary cooperation, that is, the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is only in the negotiation of the issue of monetary cooperation, and it is coordinated to the stage of common action; secondly, based on the cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the monetary cooperation. The single standard optimal monetary area theory, through the selection of four levels of economic development, economic integration, financial integration and fiscal policy convergence, this paper analyzes the convergence and differences of the four sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits at all levels, and statically examine the economic basis of the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. The level of exhibition, economic integration and the convergence of fiscal policy are three levels, and the cost of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is relatively low. In the financial integration level, the cost of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is relatively high, but from the four aspects of the development trend analysis, the convergence of each economy in the four levels shows a dynamic convergence situation, and the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is the four currency of the two sides. The long-term cost of the work is relatively low. Therefore, compared with the current economic basis of four places on both sides of the Straits, the development of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is lagging behind, and the four places on both sides of the Straits need to further strengthen regional monetary cooperation. (two) on the basis of the previous practical statistical analysis, this paper further empirically studies the economic feasibility of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, on the one hand, This paper studies the synchronization of the economic cycle of the four sides of the two sides of the Straits, and decomposes the economic fluctuation and empirically studies the symmetry of the four types of economic shocks. It is concluded that there is a common trend in the four economies of the two sides of the Straits in the long term, and that there is a common cycle in the short term, that is, the degree of its economic integration is high. Accordingly, the economic cycle of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is known, and the economic cycle of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is four. During the sample period, it is synchrony and accords with the basic conditions for the construction of the best currency area. By using the structure vector autoregression model, the symmetry of the economic impact is analyzed. It is concluded that the four economies of the two sides of the Straits have symmetry in the currency impact, and the external shocks, supply punching and demand impact are not yet symmetrical, that is, both sides of the Taiwan Straits. The economic shocks of the four economies have not been fully symmetrical. Therefore, the four economic circles on both sides of the Straits are temporarily unsuitable for the construction of the optimal currency area; on the other hand, the previous article regards the standard of economic shock symmetry as an exogenous given, and the feasibility of judging regional monetary cooperation based on historical data, although this method helps to clarify the current two. The economic basis of the four currency cooperation on the shore, but this method ignores the endogeneity between the measure standard and the monetary union, that is, if the current economic correlation between countries is positively related to the trade integration, then a country does not meet the optimal currency area standard before joining the optimal currency area, but it can promote its completion after its accession. The foot standards (Frankel and rose, 1998) reduce the robustness of the research conclusions. Based on this, this paper empirically examines whether the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions have endogeneity of monetary cooperation. The study shows that the degree of economic integration increases with the deepening of economic integration and the degree of economic cycle convergence in the mainland of China and Hongkong and Macao. There will be a continuous improvement in the existence of the endogenous mechanism of the optimal monetary area standard, three suitable for the formation of the best currency area, while the Taiwan region and the other three places do not exist the optimal monetary area of the endogenous mechanism, the current stage is not suitable for the formation of the optimal currency area. To sum up, in the context of the internationalization of RMB, China, the mainland, Hongkong and Macao The regional economic basis can support further strengthening of monetary cooperation, while the Taiwan region and other regions have great differences, and the cost of further strengthening monetary cooperation is greater. The four land monetary cooperation between the two sides should be divided into stages and different levels. (three) this article has made clear the current situation of monetary cooperation and the realistic economic basis of the two banks and four areas. On the one hand, based on the analysis of the current regional monetary cooperation model, based on the theory of currency network externality and conversion cost, a simple mathematical model is constructed to analyze the welfare effect of the different monetary cooperation modes. The benefit level of the common currency is adopted in the process of regional monetary cooperation. It is obviously greater than the welfare level of the two currencies in circulation, so the region should strengthen monetary cooperation, build a monetary union and adopt a common currency. In the choice of common currency, from the point of view of the minimum cost, because of the "inertia" of the currency, the currency used first has the predominance, that is, the currency currently in circulation is more than the currency. The currency, which has not yet been used, has a larger circulation network, so the former has a higher level of welfare as a common currency than the latter, so monetary cooperation should choose a kind of now used and numerous currencies as the core currency of regional monetary cooperation; on the other hand, the renminbi is not yet true. Now it is freely convertible, but the process of RMB internationalization is accelerating to create potential possibility for the RMB to become a regional dominant currency. Based on this, this paper empirically studies the dynamic role of RMB in exchange rate arrangement in Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan. The study shows the effect of RMB on the exchange rate arrangement in Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan. Obviously, it means that the recessive monetary anchor function of the RMB has emerged, that is, the RMB is gradually becoming the four regional dominant currency in the two sides of the Straits. Therefore, although the RMB has not been freely convertible, it is still unable to be the official anchor of the four place on both sides of the Straits, but in the context of RMB internationalization, the RMB is gradually becoming the core currency of the region, in the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. The implementation of RMB led monetary cooperation in four areas is feasible. The innovation points of this article are mainly reflected in the following three aspects: (1) in the perspective of research, the existing literature research on the monetary cooperation between the four regions of the Taiwan Straits is based on the theory of the optimal currency area, and analyses the realistic economic basis of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Straits and judges the goods. On the basis of the economic feasibility of currency cooperation, based on the practical experience of the current international successful regional monetary cooperation, the paper studies the choice of the mode and path of the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and less attention to the dynamic influence of RMB internationalization on the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. However, the internationalization of currency and the regional monetary cooperation are complementary, The mutual promotion of RMB internationalization has created the possibility for RMB to become the dominant currency and provides new opportunities and conditions for the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. This paper analyzes the issue of RMB internationalization and regional monetary cooperation, and studies the issue of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits by the dynamic optimal decision analysis of endogenous constraints and the study of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Straits. It provides a new research direction for the four monetary cooperation mode and path selection between the two sides. (two) in terms of the research content, this article is supplemented and perfected based on the existing literature research, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first, the existing literature generally analyzes the economic feasibility of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and reduces the economic feasibility of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Straits. The robustness of the research conclusions is based on two dimensions of static economic impact symmetry and dynamic endogenous nature on the basis of real economic statistical analysis. This paper makes a comprehensive judgment on the economic feasibility of the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits and makes up for the shortcomings of the previous research. Second, in the analysis of the economic fundamentals of the four economic circles on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, this article is adopted in this paper. With the two core indicators of economic cycle synchronization and economic impact symmetry, the economic fundamentals of the four economic circles on both sides of the Straits are analyzed. Third, this paper combines the internationalization of RMB and regional currency cooperation to dynamically analyze the feasibility of the construction of the RMB currency area and enrich the current research content. (three) consideration of the research methods. Institutional change has played a major role in the economic development of the four sides of the two sides of the Straits. Structural changes exist in the economic development of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. The estimated values of the parameters of the traditional fixed parameter model only reflect the average level of the sample during the study, and can not reflect the dynamic changes, because this can not reflect the time-varying effects of such economic structures. The variable parameter research method has better applicability and persuasiveness. Therefore, this paper selects the state space model with time-varying parameters, and empirically studies the feasibility of the construction of the RMB currency area of the four sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, and makes up for the shortcomings of the previous research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6

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