本文選題：金融危機(jī) + 中國(guó)出口��； 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：源于美國(guó)次貸市場(chǎng)的危機(jī)迅速蔓延到其他國(guó)家,不僅席卷歐盟、日本等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,也波及包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的發(fā)展中國(guó)家,2008年演變成為一次全球金融危機(jī)。很多評(píng)論家和政策制定者都把目前的金融危機(jī)視為自20世紀(jì)30年代大蕭條以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的金融沖擊。這次危機(jī)的突出特點(diǎn)之一是國(guó)際貿(mào)易的大幅下滑,其下滑幅度比世界GDP的下滑幅度更大。由于與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的緊密融合,中國(guó)的出口在這次衰退期間受到了較大沖擊。 迄今為止,金融危機(jī)對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易影響的理論研究還未形成體系,大多數(shù)研究是有關(guān)金融危機(jī)對(duì)中國(guó)出口影響的描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,或者簡(jiǎn)化的計(jì)量分析,仍然缺乏詳細(xì)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。在這一背景下,本文研究了2008年金融危機(jī)對(duì)中國(guó)出口的影響,其中著重檢驗(yàn)了金融危機(jī)對(duì)中國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的影響渠道。這個(gè)研究有助于設(shè)計(jì)應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)的響應(yīng)政策及如何避免未來(lái)可能發(fā)生的再次貿(mào)易下滑。 本文采用理論分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合、定性分析和定量分析并用的方法,在對(duì)2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)中國(guó)出口的下滑進(jìn)行描述的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)金融危機(jī)影響出口貿(mào)易的渠道進(jìn)行了解析,并利用中國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),研究的主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)論包括以下四部分： 第一,依據(jù)需求-供給框架解析了金融危機(jī)影響出口貿(mào)易的三個(gè)主要渠道：外部需求的減少、貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的抬頭和貿(mào)易融資的緊縮。分析表明：外部需求的下降能解釋一部分出口的下降；金融危機(jī)以來(lái)保護(hù)主義不斷蔓延,阻礙了國(guó)際貿(mào)易；貿(mào)易融資受到了金融危機(jī)的沖擊,因而對(duì)貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生了不利影響。在這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)上,分別對(duì)這三種影響渠道進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的實(shí)證分析。 第二,利用基于OECD投入產(chǎn)出表的、經(jīng)進(jìn)口含量調(diào)整的新需求測(cè)度和面板模型,對(duì)外部需求渠道進(jìn)行的檢驗(yàn)表明：危機(jī)期間外部需求下降對(duì)中國(guó)出口有顯著的沖擊；發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的需求對(duì)中國(guó)出口的影響比發(fā)展中國(guó)家需求的影響要大；中國(guó)出口谷底時(shí)期遭受外部需求收縮的負(fù)面影響非常大。 第三,運(yùn)用構(gòu)建的動(dòng)態(tài)差分引力模型對(duì)貿(mào)易保護(hù)渠道進(jìn)行的檢驗(yàn)表明：金融危機(jī)以來(lái)中國(guó)出口受到了貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的顯著沖擊；發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義措施對(duì)中國(guó)出口的沖擊程度大于發(fā)展中國(guó)家；關(guān)稅措施和政府采購(gòu)等非關(guān)稅壁壘是阻礙中國(guó)出口的主要形式,救助／國(guó)家援助和出口補(bǔ)貼對(duì)中國(guó)出口的間接沖擊較為突出；貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義對(duì)中國(guó)的機(jī)械、金屬、礦產(chǎn)品和加工食物行業(yè)中產(chǎn)品的出口阻礙尤其明顯。 第四,使用面板模型對(duì)貿(mào)易融資渠道進(jìn)行的檢驗(yàn)表明：貿(mào)易融資條件的緊縮對(duì)中國(guó)出口有阻礙作用；雖然沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)放大緊縮的貿(mào)易融資條件對(duì)總出口影響的證據(jù),但貿(mào)易信貸可獲得性較高的行業(yè)和擁有較多有形資產(chǎn)的行業(yè),其出口受到的金融危機(jī)沖擊較顯著。 最后,基于原因解析和實(shí)證研究,提出了有針對(duì)性的政策建議和未來(lái)的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The crisis from the US subprime market spread quickly to other countries , not only in developed countries such as the European Union , Japan , but also in developing countries , including China , and the global financial crisis in 2008 . Many critics and policymakers have seen the current financial crisis as the worst financial shock since the Great Depression of the 1930s . One of the outstanding features of this crisis is a sharp decline in international trade , which has seen a larger decline than the world ' s GDP . As a result of tight integration with the global economy , China ' s exports have suffered a greater impact during this recession .

So far , the theoretical research on the impact of the financial crisis on international trade has not yet formed a system , most of which is a descriptive statistical analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on China ' s exports , or a simplified measurement analysis . In this context , the paper studied the impact of the financial crisis on China ' s exports .

Based on the description of the decline of China ' s exports since the financial crisis of 2008 , this paper analyzes the channels of the export trade in China since the 2008 financial crisis , and makes use of China ' s export trade data . The main contents and conclusions of the study include the following four parts :

First , according to the demand - supply framework , the three main channels of the financial crisis affecting the export trade are analyzed : the reduction of external demand , the rise of protectionism and the tightening of trade finance .
protectionism has been spreading since the financial crisis , which has hindered international trade ;
Trade finance has been impacted by the financial crisis , thus exerting a negative impact on trade . On the basis of this , detailed empirical analysis is carried out on these three influencing channels .

Secondly , using the new demand measure and panel model based on the OECD input - output table and adjusted by imported content , the inspection of external demand channel shows that external demand decline has a significant impact on China ' s exports during the crisis .
The impact of the needs of developed countries on China ' s exports is greater than that of developing countries ;
The negative effects of external demand contraction in China ' s export valley are very big .

Thirdly , using the constructed dynamic differential gravity model to test the trade protection channels shows that China ' s exports have been significantly impacted by protectionism since the financial crisis ;
Trade protectionism measures in developed countries have greater impact on China ' s exports than in developing countries ;
Non - tariff barriers , such as tariff measures and government procurement , are the main obstacles to China ' s exports , and the indirect impact of aid / national aid and export subsidies on China ' s exports is more prominent ;
Trade protectionism is particularly clear to China ' s exports of machinery , metals , minerals and processed food products .

Fourthly , the use of the panel model to test the trade financing channel shows that the tightening of trade financing conditions has an obstacle to China ' s exports ;
While there was no evidence of the impact of the financial crisis on the overall export impact of the restrictive trade financing conditions , trade credit availability was higher in industries and industries with more tangible assets , with the impact of the financial crisis being affected by the financial crisis .

Finally , based on the reason analysis and the empirical research , a specific policy suggestion and future research direction are put forward .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F831.59;F752.62

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