本文選題：中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū) + 引力模型��； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自二十一世紀(jì)起，中國、日本和韓國開始積極推進(jìn)國際區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作。作為東亞的三個經(jīng)濟(jì)大國，中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立是三國間實(shí)現(xiàn)共同利益的根本要求，其目的在于達(dá)到以市場機(jī)制為動力，實(shí)現(xiàn)國際化的專業(yè)分工和資源的合理配置，提高成員國的經(jīng)濟(jì)福利和國際競爭力的最終目標(biāo)。 自由貿(mào)易區(qū)取消成員國之間的貿(mào)易壁壘和障礙，完成貿(mào)易的自由化，促進(jìn)了國與國之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來，實(shí)現(xiàn)了區(qū)域內(nèi)各國的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立會產(chǎn)生巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)，包括貿(mào)易效應(yīng)、投資效應(yīng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)效應(yīng)等，本文著重于研究中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立對我國產(chǎn)生的直接投資效應(yīng)。 2011年中日韓區(qū)域貿(mào)易從1999年的1300多億美元上升至2011年的6900多億，其中日本和中國在全球?qū)ν庵苯油顿Y中分別位居第二位和第五位，但是中日韓三國的相互投資額卻只占對外投資額的6%，區(qū)域投資不足制約著東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。對外直接投資是維系東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要紐帶，促進(jìn)各國生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域合作；同時，，區(qū)域內(nèi)直接投資可以幫助東亞國家擺脫對西方國家的強(qiáng)烈依賴性。對我國而言，吸引FDI流入是我國實(shí)現(xiàn)“走出去，引進(jìn)來”的重要一環(huán)，可以促進(jìn)我國資源優(yōu)化配置和國際資本的自由流動。直接投資效應(yīng)作為自貿(mào)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的重要組成部分，有助于了解我國在中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立中所扮演的角色，對于我國在推進(jìn)中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的進(jìn)程中制定政策、預(yù)防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等方面具有重要指導(dǎo)作用。 本文首先介紹了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化相關(guān)理論，為實(shí)證分析提供理論依據(jù)；其次，本文簡述中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的背景、現(xiàn)狀和特點(diǎn)，說明了中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)；再次，對影響中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的因素進(jìn)行分析，包括三國間經(jīng)貿(mào)密切度、政治因素和大國因素三方面；然后，本文介紹了我國FDI和中日韓三國間相互投資的現(xiàn)狀，分析了影響我國外商直接投資的決定因素；之后，本文以區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化理論相關(guān)理論作為實(shí)證的理論依據(jù)，假設(shè)中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)于2020年建立，采用引力模型，定量和定性分析相結(jié)合，引入了對FDI流入產(chǎn)生影響的幾個環(huán)境因子進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，判斷哪些環(huán)境因子對我國吸引FDI具有決定性作用，然后通過模擬分析預(yù)測了中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的建立對我國吸引區(qū)域內(nèi)外商投資的影響；最后根據(jù)實(shí)證分析所得，本文針對我國參與自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)提供了可行建議。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, China, Japan and South Korea have actively promoted international regional economic cooperation. As the three major economic powers in East Asia, the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade area is the fundamental requirement for the realization of common interests among the three countries. Its purpose is to achieve the internationalization of professional division of labor and rational allocation of resources based on the market mechanism. The ultimate goal of improving the economic welfare and international competitiveness of member countries. Free trade zone removes trade barriers and barriers among member countries, completes trade liberalization, promotes economic exchanges between countries, and realizes coordinated development of countries in the region. The establishment of China, Japan and Korea Free Trade Zone will have enormous economic effects, including trade effect, investment effect and industrial effect. This paper focuses on the direct investment effect of the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone on China. In 2011, the regional trade between China, Japan and South Korea rose from more than US $13 billion in 1999 to more than 690 billion in 2011, with Japan and China ranking second and fifth in global FDI respectively. However, the mutual investment of China, Japan and South Korea only accounts for 6% of the foreign investment, and the insufficient regional investment restricts the development of the regional economy in East Asia. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important link to maintain East Asian production network and promote cooperation between countries in the field of production. At the same time, intraregional direct investment can help East Asian countries get rid of their strong dependence on Western countries. For our country, attracting the inflow of FDI is an important part of "going out, bringing in", which can promote the optimal allocation of resources and the free flow of international capital in our country. As an important part of the free trade zone economic effect, the direct investment effect is helpful to understand the role of our country in the establishment of the free trade zone between China, Japan and Korea, and to formulate policies in the process of promoting the establishment of the free trade zone between China, Japan and South Korea. Prevention of risk has an important guiding role. This paper first introduces the relevant theories of regional economic integration, which provides the theoretical basis for empirical analysis; secondly, this paper briefly describes the background, current situation and characteristics of China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone, and explains the realistic basis of the establishment of China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone. This paper analyzes the factors influencing the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone, including the economic and trade closeness between the three countries, political factors and big country factors, and then introduces the current situation of China's FDI and the mutual investment between China, Japan and South Korea. After analyzing the determinants of foreign direct investment in China, this paper takes the theory of regional economic integration as the theoretical basis, and assumes that China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone was established in 2020, using gravity model. Combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, this paper introduces several environmental factors that have an impact on the inflow of FDI, and determines which environmental factors play a decisive role in attracting FDI in China. Then the influence of the establishment of China, Japan and Korea free trade zone on attracting foreign investment in China is predicted by simulation analysis. Finally, according to the empirical analysis, this paper provides some feasible suggestions for China to participate in the construction of free trade zone.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7

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