本文選題：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) + 金融市場��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的不斷發(fā)展,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)一直處于變化進(jìn)程中,這是每個(gè)國家都要經(jīng)歷的,尤其是中國、印度這樣的新興市場國家,這些國家的人口結(jié)構(gòu)正發(fā)生顯著的變化。上世紀(jì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)崛起和東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡發(fā)生后,很多學(xué)者開始研究人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中起的作用,并取得了豐富的研究成果。前人研究表明,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)會通過消費(fèi)、儲蓄、投資、進(jìn)出口、勞動力供給等一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)變量對經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生影響。但前人的研究并不完善,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動對金融市場的影響沒有得到相應(yīng)的研究。為此,本文在研習(xí)前人相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,試圖探究人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對銀行、股市、債券等金融市場產(chǎn)生的影響,以及這些影響是通過何種途徑產(chǎn)生的。 本文首先系統(tǒng)介紹國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、金融資產(chǎn)選擇以及金融市場影響的研究。在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對金融市場的影響機(jī)制。然后,本文采用來自世界銀行的金融、人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),通過對面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析得出了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對金融市場的影響。分析主要分為兩部分：第一部分是人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響金融市場的基準(zhǔn)模型分析和穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),得出不同年齡段人口對各金融市場的影響；第二部分是分析在不同收入、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平下,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對各金融市場的影響情況。 通過分析本文發(fā)現(xiàn),入口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)會對金融各市場產(chǎn)生不同的影響,中年人口會對股市產(chǎn)生積極影響,而老年人口則對股市產(chǎn)生消極影響,對債券市場產(chǎn)生積極影響。這意味著當(dāng)一國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)處在成年型時(shí),不僅能為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供人口紅利,而且也為股市創(chuàng)造了良好的發(fā)展機(jī)會。而在老齡化的過程中,老年人口比重增加會有益于債券市場的發(fā)展而對股市產(chǎn)生一定負(fù)面影響。此外,研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對金融市場的影響在高收入國家中比中低收入國家中顯著。而需要注意的是,有利的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)并不意味著必然會對相關(guān)金融市場帶來積極影響,這只會為金融市場的發(fā)展提供一個(gè)較好的潛力和機(jī)遇,而其能否真正推動相關(guān)金融市場的發(fā)展,則取決于該國是否有良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行環(huán)境、完善的金融市場以及相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。因此,政府應(yīng)積極推動金融市場改革,不斷完善金融制度和社會保障制度,為發(fā)揮良好人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的積極影響創(chuàng)造良好的環(huán)境；同時(shí)政府應(yīng)適當(dāng)調(diào)節(jié)計(jì)劃生育政策以及退休制度以削弱人口快速老齡化帶來的沖擊。
[Abstract]:With the economic and social development, the population age structure has been in the process of change, which every country has to experience, especially China, India and other emerging market countries, these countries' demographic structure is changing significantly. After the economic rise of Japan and the economic miracle of East Asia in the last century, many scholars began to study the role of population age structure in economic growth, and obtained rich research results. Previous studies have shown that the age structure of the population will affect the economic system through a series of economic variables such as consumption, savings, investment, import and export, labor supply and so on. However, previous studies are not perfect, and the influence of the change of population age structure on the financial market has not been studied. Therefore, on the basis of previous studies, this paper attempts to explore the impact of the age structure of the population on banks, stock markets, bonds and other financial markets, as well as the ways through which these effects are generated. Firstly, this paper systematically introduces the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the influence of population age structure on economic growth, financial asset selection and financial market. On this basis, the influence mechanism of population age structure on financial market is constructed. Then, using the financial, demographic and economic data from the World Bank, the paper analyzes the impact of population age structure on the financial market through the empirical analysis of panel data. The analysis is mainly divided into two parts: the first part is the benchmark model analysis and robustness test of the impact of population age structure on the financial market, and the second part is the analysis of the impact of different age groups on the financial markets. Under the level of economic development, the impact of the age structure of the population on the various financial markets. Through the analysis of this paper, it is found that the age structure of import will have different effects on the financial markets, the middle-aged will have a positive impact on the stock market, while the elderly will have a negative impact on the stock market and a positive impact on the bond market. This means that when the age structure of a country's population is adult, it can not only provide a demographic dividend for economic development, but also create good development opportunities for the stock market. In the process of aging, the increase of the proportion of the elderly will benefit the development of the bond market and have a certain negative impact on the stock market. In addition, the effect of age structure on financial markets is more significant in high-income countries than in low-and-middle-income countries. It should be noted, however, that a favourable age structure of the population does not necessarily have a positive impact on the relevant financial markets, which only provides a better potential and opportunity for the development of financial markets, Whether it can really promote the development of relevant financial markets depends on whether the country has a good economic operating environment, perfect financial markets and relevant economic policies. Therefore, the government should actively promote the reform of the financial market, constantly improve the financial system and social security system, and create a good environment for giving full play to the positive impact of the good age structure of the population; At the same time, the government should adjust the family planning policy and retirement system to reduce the impact of rapid aging population.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.5;C92-05

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條

1 唐東波;;人口老齡化與居民高儲蓄——理論及中國的經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究[J];金融論壇;2007年09期

2 杜本峰;李一男;;老年人消費(fèi)與投資行為特征和金融產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新——以北京市調(diào)查為例[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問題探索;2007年03期

3 陳學(xué)彬;傅東升;葛成杰;;我國居民個(gè)人生命周期消費(fèi)投資行為動態(tài)優(yōu)化模擬研究[J];金融研究;2006年02期

4 黑田俊夫,安菁春;亞洲人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化與社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系[J];人口學(xué)刊;1993年04期

5 史代敏,宋艷;居民家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇的實(shí)證研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)研究;2005年10期

6 肖宏;;人口老齡化對金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響[J];中國國情國力;2007年09期

7 陳成鮮,王浣塵;人口老齡化對我國股票市場的影響分析[J];證券市場導(dǎo)報(bào);2003年04期

8 趙建;;人口老齡化會導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)價(jià)格步入下跌通道嗎?[J];證券市場導(dǎo)報(bào);2012年03期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 李魁;人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[D];武漢大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號：1779397