本文選題：人民幣國(guó)際化 + 宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng),中國(guó)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中扮演越來(lái)越重要的角色,人民幣的國(guó)際地位也在逐步提升,人民幣國(guó)際化已經(jīng)成為必然趨勢(shì)。自2009年跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算試點(diǎn)推出以來(lái),人民幣跨境使用量急劇上升。截至2013年底,全年跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)累計(jì)為4.63萬(wàn)億元,較上年的2.94萬(wàn)億元同比大增57%。2013年上海自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建成,又將人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程推上了一個(gè)新臺(tái)階。然而人民幣國(guó)際化的進(jìn)程依然任重而道遠(yuǎn),同時(shí)也不可避免地蘊(yùn)藏著各種不可預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。文章選擇人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中所面臨的宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作為研究對(duì)象是一個(gè)重要的視角,既是對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)考慮,也是對(duì)全球化背景下人民幣順利實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)際化的前瞻思考。 本文首先對(duì)貨幣國(guó)際化的宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其影響路徑進(jìn)行一般性理論分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上分析人民幣國(guó)際化所面臨的宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其成因。隨后,以資本賬戶開放為視角,在一個(gè)包含資本賬戶開放度、跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算、匯率以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的框架內(nèi),采用實(shí)證分析與理論分析相結(jié)合的方法探討人民幣國(guó)際化對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)金融穩(wěn)定的沖擊。研究結(jié)果提示,跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算與資本賬戶開放具有高度相關(guān)性；跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算加劇了人民幣匯率的波動(dòng),同時(shí)增強(qiáng)了資本賬戶開放與匯率波動(dòng)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性；資本賬戶開放在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)會(huì)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生一定的負(fù)面效應(yīng)。文章還構(gòu)建了包含資本賬戶開放度、產(chǎn)出、物價(jià)水平、匯率以及貨幣供應(yīng)量的向量自回歸模型,分別分析人民幣國(guó)際化對(duì)貨幣政策調(diào)控價(jià)格和產(chǎn)出的影響,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣國(guó)際化對(duì)貨幣政策的價(jià)格和產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)均具有一定的抑制作用。最后,文章在借鑒美元和日元國(guó)際化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及教訓(xùn)的基礎(chǔ)之上,結(jié)合人民幣國(guó)際化所面臨的宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提出一系列具有較強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)針對(duì)性和可操作性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy, China plays a more and more important role in the world economic system, and the international status of RMB is gradually rising, and the internationalization of RMB has become an inevitable trend.Cross-border use of renminbi has risen sharply since the launch of a pilot settlement of renminbi for cross-border trade in 2009.By the end of 2013, RMB settlement of cross-border trade totaled 4.63 trillion yuan, up 57% from 2.94 trillion yuan last year. The completion of Shanghai Free Trade area in 2013 has pushed the internationalization of RMB to a new level.However, the internationalization of RMB still has a long way to go.It is an important angle of view to choose the macro risk in the process of RMB internationalization as the research object, which is a long-term consideration of China's economic and financial development strategy.It is also the prospective thinking on the internationalization of RMB under the background of globalization.This paper firstly makes a general theoretical analysis of the macro risks and their influence paths of currency internationalization, and then analyzes the macro risks faced by RMB internationalization and its causes.Then, from the perspective of capital account openness, within a framework that includes capital account openness, cross-border trade renminbi settlement, exchange rate, and economic growth,This paper discusses the impact of RMB internationalization on macroeconomic and financial stability by combining empirical analysis with theoretical analysis.The results suggest that the RMB settlement of cross-border trade is highly correlated with the opening of the capital account, and the RMB settlement of cross-border trade intensifies the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and strengthens the correlation between the opening of the capital account and the volatility of the exchange rate.Capital account opening in the long-term will have a certain negative effect on macro-economic growth.The paper also constructs a vector autoregressive model including capital account openness, output, price level, exchange rate and money supply to analyze the impact of RMB internationalization on the price and output of monetary policy.It is found that RMB internationalization can inhibit the price and output effects of monetary policy.Finally, based on the experience and lessons of risk control in the internationalization of US dollar and Japanese yen, combined with the macro risk faced by RMB internationalization, this paper puts forward a series of risk control measures with strong practical pertinence and maneuverability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：1755800