本文選題：人口撫養(yǎng)比　切入點(diǎn)：少兒撫養(yǎng)比　出處：《重慶理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，我國(guó)居民的生活與健康水平得到了大幅度的提升，醫(yī)療科技的進(jìn)步與居民生活飲食的改善，逐步提升了我國(guó)居民的人均壽命，這促使我國(guó)老年人口（指65歲及以上年齡人口）的數(shù)量越來越多。加之幾十年來政府計(jì)劃生育政策的嚴(yán)格實(shí)施以及當(dāng)今年輕人生活壓力和家庭生活成本的不斷加大，造成人們生育率和再生育意愿逐漸下降。多方面的因素促使我國(guó)目前的少兒撫養(yǎng)比的呈現(xiàn)出持續(xù)下降的狀態(tài)，而我國(guó)人口的老年撫養(yǎng)比卻呈現(xiàn)出不斷加速上升的趨勢(shì)，這種情況的出現(xiàn)一方面加劇了勞動(dòng)年齡人口的負(fù)擔(dān)另一方面也會(huì)造成勞動(dòng)力的短期。近些年來我國(guó)一些地區(qū)頻頻出現(xiàn)的勞動(dòng)力短缺狀況，我國(guó)面臨日益嚴(yán)峻的養(yǎng)老保障資金壓力與缺口，居民的消費(fèi)意愿不強(qiáng)烈，大多數(shù)人都把錢存在銀行里，這使得我國(guó)的居民儲(chǔ)蓄率已經(jīng)高到了不合理的水平，導(dǎo)致我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展中內(nèi)在的推動(dòng)力不足。種種問題的浮現(xiàn)表明我國(guó)人口問題已經(jīng)發(fā)生了深層次的轉(zhuǎn)變，如何解釋以及怎樣應(yīng)對(duì)這種人口結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變，對(duì)未來我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有至關(guān)重要的影響。 本文首先對(duì)文章要研究的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行解釋說明，然后闡述了國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)學(xué)者在人口撫養(yǎng)比，人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與儲(chǔ)蓄關(guān)系方面的研究成果與結(jié)論。隨后以儲(chǔ)蓄生命周期理論、家庭儲(chǔ)蓄理論等較為經(jīng)典的西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和人口學(xué)理論作為基礎(chǔ)，選取中國(guó)1990～2009年共20年的人口撫養(yǎng)比和居民儲(chǔ)蓄率作為本文實(shí)證研究的數(shù)據(jù)來源，基于VAR模型，運(yùn)用Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析、方差分解等方法分析了少兒撫養(yǎng)比、老年撫養(yǎng)比與居民儲(chǔ)蓄率三者之間的關(guān)系。 實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明：少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比均是居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的格蘭杰原因，同時(shí)通過脈沖相應(yīng)分析和方差分解分析可以知道，從長(zhǎng)期來看，少兒撫養(yǎng)比的變化對(duì)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的影響逐漸微弱，，而老年撫養(yǎng)比的變化對(duì)居民儲(chǔ)蓄率的影響則逐漸加強(qiáng)。 本文最后的幾個(gè)章節(jié)主要闡述了日本人口撫養(yǎng)比變化對(duì)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)造成的影響，以及日本政府為應(yīng)對(duì)人口問題所采取的措施。然后結(jié)合我國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)情，為我國(guó)未來人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展政策提供一些有益的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the living and health level of Chinese residents has been greatly improved. The progress of medical science and technology and the improvement of residents' daily diet have gradually increased the average life expectancy of Chinese residents. This has led to an increasing number of elderly people in our country, including the strict implementation of the government's family planning policy over the past decades and the increasing burden of life and the cost of family life for young people today. As a result of the gradual decline in the fertility rate and the willingness to reproduce again, a number of factors have led to a continuous decline in the current child dependency ratio in China, while the old age dependency ratio of the Chinese population has shown an increasing trend of acceleration. The emergence of this situation on the one hand exacerbates the burden on the working-age population, on the other hand, it will also result in the short-term labor force. In recent years, there have been frequent labour shortages in some areas of our country. Our country is facing the increasingly severe pressure and gap of the endowment security fund, the residents' willingness to spend is not strong, most people keep their money in the bank, which makes the resident savings rate of our country have reached an unreasonable level. The emergence of various problems indicates that China's population problem has undergone a profound transformation, how to explain and how to deal with this demographic change. In the future, China's social and economic development has a crucial impact. This paper first explains the relevant concepts to be studied in the article, then expounds the research results and conclusions of the relevant scholars at home and abroad on the relationship between population dependency ratio, population age structure and savings. On the basis of the classical western economics and demography theories such as household savings theory, this paper selects the population dependency ratio and resident savings rate of China from 1990 to 2009 as the data source of this empirical study, based on VAR model. Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship among children's dependency ratio, old age dependency ratio and resident savings rate. The results of empirical analysis show that both child dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio are the Granger causes of the resident savings rate. At the same time, we can know from the pulse analysis and variance decomposition analysis that, in the long run, The influence of children's dependency ratio on resident savings rate is weak, while that of old age's dependency ratio on resident's saving rate is becoming stronger. The last chapters of this paper mainly expound the impact of the change of population dependency ratio on Japan's economy and society, as well as the measures taken by the Japanese government to deal with the population problem. To provide some useful policy suggestions for the future population and economic development policy of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F832.22

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