發(fā)布時間：2018-03-26 17:47

  本文選題：出口　切入點：外商直接投資　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國出口和FDI有著強勁的增長，貨物出口量已位居世界第一，同時也成為吸引FDI最多的發(fā)展中國家。借助出口和FDI的推動，我國經(jīng)濟也獲得了長足的進(jìn)步，至2011年我國已經(jīng)超越日本，成為排在美國之后的世界第二大經(jīng)濟體。2008年隨著國際金融危機對實體經(jīng)濟的影響不斷加深，世界經(jīng)濟增速下降，美歐日等發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟體的消費需求進(jìn)一步減弱，金融體系信貸緊縮，導(dǎo)致我國出口嚴(yán)重受阻，F(xiàn)DI流入銳減，出口和FDI的月度同比數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)連續(xù)負(fù)增長，同時我國經(jīng)濟增速也明顯放緩。我國出口、FDI與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系再次成為人們關(guān)注的熱點。因此從國際金融危機發(fā)生后，我國出口、FDI與經(jīng)濟增長的現(xiàn)狀分析入手，通過構(gòu)建SVAR模型實證分析三者之間雙向動態(tài)影響關(guān)系，，在我國經(jīng)濟面臨結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整及轉(zhuǎn)型升級的背景下，以期對合理利用FDI和發(fā)展對外貿(mào)易，促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長提供政策建議。 全文分為六個章節(jié)：第一章主要闡述了研究背景、研究目的與意義、國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述、研究思路與方法及本文可能的創(chuàng)新之處；第二章介紹了相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)，依次介紹了出口與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系理論、FDI與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系理論及出口與FDI關(guān)系理論，為本文奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)；第三章從總量和結(jié)構(gòu)上分析了國際金融危機發(fā)生以來，我國出口、FDI和經(jīng)濟增長的發(fā)展情況和趨勢，并分別對三者出現(xiàn)明顯波動的原因做了理論分析；第四章基于2008年1月至2013年6月的月度數(shù)據(jù)，通過構(gòu)建SVAR模型，對我國出口、FDI與經(jīng)濟增長影響關(guān)系進(jìn)行實證分析，依次對模型進(jìn)行識別、估計與檢驗，確定滯后階數(shù)，運用平穩(wěn)性檢驗、建立結(jié)構(gòu)脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解模型進(jìn)行研究，第五章總結(jié)實證分析結(jié)論，并對研究結(jié)論進(jìn)行成因分析，第六章在實證分析基礎(chǔ)上，提出穩(wěn)定我國經(jīng)濟增長的政策建議。 研究結(jié)果表明：現(xiàn)階段FDI對我國經(jīng)濟增長的推動作用顯著，但出口對我國經(jīng)濟增長的拉動作用十分有限，我國經(jīng)濟保持穩(wěn)定增長可以促進(jìn)出口和吸引FDI流入，同時，出口和FDI之間存在明顯互相促進(jìn)作用。最后在實證分析結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上，為推動我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長，提出了針對性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's exports and FDI have been growing strongly, and the export volume of goods has ranked first in the world. At the same time, China has also become the developing country that attracts the most FDI. With the help of exports and the promotion of FDI, China's economy has also made considerable progress. By 2011, China had overtaken Japan as the second largest economy in the world after the United States. In 2008, as the impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy deepened, the growth rate of the world economy declined. Consumer demand in developed economies, such as the United States, Europe and Japan, has further weakened, and the credit crunch in the financial system has led to a sharp decline in the inflow of China's exports, resulting in a series of negative monthly growth in exports and FDI data compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the economic growth rate of our country is also obviously slowing down. The relationship between China's export FDI and economic growth has once again become the focus of attention. Therefore, after the international financial crisis, the current situation of China's export FDI and economic growth is analyzed. By constructing the SVAR model, this paper empirically analyzes the bidirectional dynamic influence relationship between the three, under the background of the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of China's economy, in order to make rational use of FDI and develop foreign trade. To promote sustained and stable economic growth in China to provide policy advice. The full text is divided into six chapters: the first chapter mainly describes the research background, research purpose and significance, domestic and foreign literature review, research ideas and methods and possible innovations in this paper. The theory of the relationship between export and economic growth and the theory of the relationship between export and FDI are introduced in turn, which lays a theoretical foundation for this paper. Chapter three analyzes the international financial crisis in terms of total amount and structure. The development and trend of China's export FDI and economic growth are analyzed in theory. The fourth chapter is based on the monthly data from January 2008 to June 2013, and constructs the SVAR model. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between FDI and economic growth in China, then identifies, estimates and tests the model, determines the lag order, establishes the structural impulse response function and variance decomposition model by using the stationary test. The fifth chapter summarizes the conclusions of empirical analysis and analyzes the causes of the conclusions. Chapter 6 puts forward the policy recommendations to stabilize China's economic growth on the basis of empirical analysis. The results show that FDI plays a significant role in promoting China's economic growth at the present stage, but exports play a very limited role in promoting China's economic growth. Maintaining stable economic growth in China can promote exports and attract the inflow of FDI, at the same time, At last, on the basis of the results of empirical analysis, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the sustained and stable growth of China's economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.62;F832.6;F124;F224

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