本文選題：中國(guó)OFDI　切入點(diǎn)：政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展，融入世界經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化步伐的加快，中國(guó)企業(yè)“走出去”戰(zhàn)略成效顯著，但與此同時(shí)，也不可避免地會(huì)面臨各種政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有難以預(yù)測(cè)和控制的特點(diǎn)，而我國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資起步晚，積累的經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足，對(duì)投資國(guó)家了解不夠深入，特別是中國(guó)企業(yè)投資在政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的發(fā)展中國(guó)家的金額比重越來(lái)越多，因而政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避極其必要。由此可見，政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)OFDI的影響如何，中國(guó)OFDI會(huì)面臨什么樣的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及如何規(guī)避投資中的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，，盡量地減小政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生引起的損失，這些問(wèn)題都是值得深入研究的。 本文首先對(duì)OFDI政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概念、成因及其后果等理論進(jìn)行了基礎(chǔ)研究。而后闡述了當(dāng)前中國(guó)OFDI面臨政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要表現(xiàn)，并結(jié)合ICRG（國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資指南）數(shù)據(jù)中的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)，進(jìn)一步分析了中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資情況。再在綜合以往學(xué)者研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上，考慮中國(guó)企業(yè)OFDI的實(shí)際情況，對(duì)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與中國(guó)OFDI的關(guān)系提出基本假設(shè)，繼而依據(jù)假設(shè)選定模型所需變量，對(duì)中國(guó)投資的110個(gè)國(guó)家2003-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果，本文得出中國(guó)OFDI傾向于流入政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的國(guó)家這一主要結(jié)論。最后，本文根據(jù)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)我國(guó)OFDI影響的分析結(jié)果，從政府和企業(yè)兩個(gè)層面提出了規(guī)避政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政策建議：政府應(yīng)當(dāng)建立OFDI政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系及預(yù)警機(jī)制，健全OFDI保障立法，并構(gòu)建防范OFDI政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制；而企業(yè)應(yīng)做好政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和保險(xiǎn)工作，實(shí)現(xiàn)多元化和本土化經(jīng)營(yíng)，及時(shí)采取自我保護(hù)策略，將政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致的損失最小化。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于：第一，整理總結(jié)了目前中國(guó)OFDI面臨的主要政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并結(jié)合ICRG的數(shù)據(jù)定量分析了中國(guó)OFDI的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況，得出中國(guó)OFDI偏向于流入政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高國(guó)家的結(jié)論；第二，利用最新的數(shù)據(jù)，選擇的樣本比較全面，既包括了中、高收入的國(guó)家，也包括了政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)突出的低收入國(guó)家。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of its integration into the world economy, Chinese enterprises'"going out" strategy has achieved remarkable results, but at the same time, it will inevitably face all kinds of political risks. Political risks are difficult to predict and control. However, China's foreign direct investment started late, accumulated insufficient experience, and did not have a deep understanding of the investment countries. In particular, Chinese enterprises are investing more and more in developing countries with high political risks, so it is extremely necessary to avoid political risks. From this, we can see how political risks affect China's OFDI. What kind of political risk China OFDI will face and how to avoid the political risk in investment and minimize the loss caused by political risk are all worthy of further study. In this paper, the concept, causes and consequences of the political risk of OFDI are studied, and then the main manifestations of the political risk faced by OFDI in China are expounded. Combined with the political risk index in the data of ICRG (National Venture Capital Guide), this paper further analyzes the situation of China's foreign direct investment. Then, on the basis of synthesizing the research conclusions of previous scholars, we consider the actual situation of Chinese enterprises' OFDI. The basic hypothesis of the relationship between political risk and China's OFDI is put forward, and then the panel data of 110 countries investing in China from 2003 to 2012 are tested empirically according to the hypothesis and the variables required by the model. This paper draws the main conclusion that China's OFDI tends to flow into countries with high political risk. Finally, according to the analysis of the influence of political risk on China's OFDI, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on avoiding political risk from the two aspects of government and enterprise: the government should establish OFDI political risk assessment system and early warning mechanism, perfect the legislation of OFDI guarantee, and construct the coordination mechanism to prevent the political risk of OFDI; In order to minimize the loss caused by political risk, enterprises should do well in political risk assessment and insurance, realize diversified and local management, and adopt self-protection strategy in time. The innovations of this paper are as follows: first, the main political risks faced by China's OFDI are summarized, and the political risks of China's OFDI are quantitatively analyzed with the data of ICRG. We draw the conclusion that China's OFDI tends to flow into countries with high political risk. Secondly, using the latest data, we choose a more comprehensive sample, which includes both middle and high income countries and low income countries with prominent political risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;D630

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