本文選題：跨境貿易　切入點：人民幣結算　出處：《昆明理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：2008年金融危機的爆發(fā),讓各個國家開始審視以美元為主要結算貨幣的支付體系。隨著我國對外貿易規(guī)模的進一步擴大與經濟實力的逐漸加強,人民幣國際化的呼聲日益高漲。為了順應形勢,促進貿易便利化,也為了推進人民幣的國際化進程。在2009年4月8日,國務院決定在廣州、深圳、珠海、東莞、上海5個城市先行開展跨境貿易人民幣結算試點工作,境外地域范圍暫定為港澳地區(qū)和東盟國家。到了2011年8月23日跨境貿易人民幣結算境內地域范圍擴大至全國。2013年累計至10月,跨境貿易人民幣結算額為35453億元,較上年同期增長了55.27%。隨著跨境貿易人民幣結算規(guī)模的不斷提升,不僅有利于我國企業(yè)規(guī)避匯率風險,也有利于促進人民幣的國際化進程。 因此,本文從貨幣國際化理論、貨幣競爭理論、國際貿易中結算貨幣選擇理論出發(fā),憑借貨幣選擇理論中的局部均衡分析與一般均衡分析,分析出結算貨幣選擇的影響因素,結合我國實際,辨析我國跨境貿易人民幣結算業(yè)務發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實條件。對于影響我國跨境貿易人民幣結算的相關影響因素做實證分析,先采用計量經濟學中描述性統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)分析、平穩(wěn)性分析、協(xié)整檢驗等對數(shù)據(jù)做出分析,然后構建出ECM模型分析短期中各個因素的影響程度,再構建出VAR模型和脈沖響應函數(shù)分析出各個因素對跨境貿易人民幣結算業(yè)務造成的沖擊,進而提出中國視角推進跨境貿易人民幣結算的政策建議。 基于上述思路,本文研究得出： 第一,影響我國跨境貿易人民幣結算業(yè)務發(fā)展的因素主要來自于匯率波動、消費者物價指數(shù)、工業(yè)制成品出口額、工業(yè)制成品進口額。短期中,我國的跨境貿易人民幣結算額會受到上述因素的影響,而且在這幾個因素中匯率波動造成的影響最為顯著。但在長期中,受上述因素的沖擊作用并不明顯,這與人民幣還沒有實現(xiàn)國際化、我國跨境貿易人民幣結算業(yè)務的發(fā)展主要受到國家政策的影響有關。 第二,針對對于我國跨境貿易人民幣結算的相關影響因素的研究,結合實際情況,并提出合理的政策建議：逐步開放金融市場、提高企業(yè)的貿易競爭力、增強以人民幣作為結算貨幣的觀念、創(chuàng)新人民幣金融理財產品、完善開展跨境貿易人民幣結算業(yè)務的政策、積極推進與邊境地區(qū)的人民幣結算業(yè)務。
[Abstract]:In 2008, with the outbreak of the financial crisis, various countries began to examine the payment system with the US dollar as the main settlement currency. With the further expansion of China's foreign trade scale and the gradual strengthening of its economic strength, In order to comply with the situation, to promote trade facilitation, and to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, in April 8th 2009, the State Council decided in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Five cities in Shanghai have started the pilot work of RMB settlement for cross-border trade. The territory outside China is tentatively for Hong Kong, Macao and ASEAN countries. By August 23rd 2011, the territory of cross-border trade RMB settlement was extended to the whole country. From 2013 to October, the settlement amount of cross-border trade RMB was three trillion five hundred and forty-five billion three hundred million yuan. As cross-border yuan settlement continues to increase, it will not only help Chinese companies avoid currency risk, but also facilitate the internationalization of the yuan. Therefore, based on the theory of currency internationalization, the theory of currency competition, the theory of settlement currency choice in international trade, and the partial equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis of currency selection theory, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of settlement currency choice. Combined with the reality of our country, this paper discriminates the realistic conditions for the development of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China. For the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in China, the descriptive statistical data in econometrics are used first. The stability analysis, cointegration test and so on make the analysis to the data, then construct the ECM model to analyze the influence degree of each factor in the short term, Then the VAR model and impulse response function are constructed to analyze the impact of various factors on RMB settlement of cross-border trade, and then the policy recommendations of promoting RMB settlement in cross-border trade from the perspective of China are put forward. Based on the above ideas, this paper concludes that:. First, the factors that affect the development of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China mainly come from exchange rate fluctuations, consumer price indices, exports of manufactured goods, and imports of manufactured goods. In the short term, The amount of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in China will be affected by the above-mentioned factors, and among these factors, the exchange rate fluctuation will be the most significant. But in the long run, the impact of these factors is not obvious. This is due to the fact that the RMB has not been internationalized, and the development of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in China is mainly affected by national policies. Second, according to the research on the related factors of RMB settlement of cross-border trade in China, combining with the actual situation, and putting forward reasonable policy recommendations: gradually open the financial market, improve the trade competitiveness of enterprises. Strengthen the concept of RMB as settlement currency, innovate RMB financial products, perfect the policy of developing RMB settlement business in cross-border trade, and actively promote RMB settlement business with border areas.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.63

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