本文選題：新農(nóng)村　切入點：住宅投融資　出處：《北京交通大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：黨的十七大報告指出：“統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展,推進社會主義新農(nóng)村建設,解決好農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)村、農(nóng)民問題,事關全面建設小康社會大局,必須始終作為黨和政府各項工作的重中之重”。一個國家農(nóng)村住宅建設的總體水平在很大程度上反映了這個國家廣大農(nóng)村地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)發(fā)展狀況、農(nóng)民生活富裕程度、鄉(xiāng)風文明及村容村貌,農(nóng)村住宅的總體建設是我國社會主義新農(nóng)村建設的重要環(huán)節(jié),是落實中央精神的具體體現(xiàn),而在新農(nóng)村住宅建設的各項環(huán)節(jié)中,投融資是極其重要的一環(huán),它直接關系到住宅建設工作能否順利進行。 縱觀我國農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資領域的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,投融資方面仍然存在諸如資金供需矛盾突出、信貸資金嚴重不足、農(nóng)戶貸款難融資難、融資渠道單一等問題,這些問題嚴重制約著我國新農(nóng)村住宅建設工作的順利開展。而另一方面,我國城市住宅建設金融領域的發(fā)展日漸成熟,理論及實踐方面都取得了長遠的發(fā)展,農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資領域與城市住宅金融領域尚存較大差距。 基于上述背景,本文依托國家科技支撐重大項目“農(nóng)村住宅規(guī)劃建設技術標準框架研究”(項目編號：2008BAJ08B16),對我國農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資現(xiàn)狀進行了詳細研究,總結(jié)出我國新農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資發(fā)展的制約因素為：政策金融支持力度不足、商業(yè)金融趨利向城市轉(zhuǎn)移、合作金融存在制度缺陷。針對這些制約因素,本文認為農(nóng)村金融體系創(chuàng)新是解決目前我國新農(nóng)村住宅建設資金供需矛盾的重要突破口。 本文通過運用系統(tǒng)動力學因果回路圖及存量流量圖模型、聚類分析、模糊綜合評價等一系列方法,構建了新農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資需求的定量預測模型、新農(nóng)村住宅建設的5種投融資模式、6類投融資保障機制,以及投融資績效評價模型,并以天津華明鎮(zhèn)“宅基地換房”模式為實例進行投融資績效評價模型的實證檢驗,并從多個角度對我國新農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資領域提出了政策建議。論文主要研究結(jié)論如下： (1)找出了影響各投融資主體投融資行為的最直接影響因素。主要包括：政策及財政支持力度、地方官員政績考核指標、住宅建設項目預期、借款人還款能力及還款意愿、資金的機會成本及壞賬風險、社會資金進入程度、融資成本及融資難度、建房及購房成本等。 (2)提出了解決我國農(nóng)村住宅建設投融資問題的關鍵點。主要包括：改革地方政府業(yè)績考核體系,將住宅建設等民生發(fā)展評價指標納入考核體系；加強財政監(jiān)管,杜絕尋租現(xiàn)象發(fā)生；加快農(nóng)戶信用體系建設；盤活農(nóng)村土地資源,實現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)的資本化運作；廣泛吸引社會資金,探索多元化融資模式。 (3)繪制了投融資需求預測的系統(tǒng)流圖,通過計算供需差額判斷資金的供需狀況。本文運用Vensim PLE軟件繪制了投融資需求預測的系統(tǒng)流圖,得出供需差額計算公式為(資金需求預測值-實際資金供給),供需差額為正值,說明資金需求未能得到充分滿足,存在資金供需矛盾；供需差額為零,或者為負值,說明資金需求得到較好地滿足,投融資工作進展順利。 (4)根據(jù)融資主體及融資渠道的不同構建了新農(nóng)村住宅建設的5種投融資模式。本文認為,我國廣大農(nóng)村地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平差異較大,不可能用一種投融資模式解決所有問題,因此本文根據(jù)融資主體、融資渠道及資金來源等的不同,構建了資金自籌、地方政府投融資平臺、房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)主導、土地資源融資、政策金融與合作金融互補等5種投融資模式。 (5)對農(nóng)村地區(qū)進行聚類分析,并對每組地區(qū)適合的投融資主導模式進行了適宜性排序。最后結(jié)論為：上海一組最適宜資金自籌模式,遼寧一組最適宜地方政府投融資平臺模式,四川一組最適宜土地資源融資模式,西藏一組最適宜政策金融與合作金融互補模式。 (6)構建了新農(nóng)村住宅建設的6類投融資保障機制。本文認為應從財政引導機制、金融創(chuàng)新機制、法律保障機制、農(nóng)戶信用機制、風險共擔機制及風險補償機制等6方面構建新農(nóng)村住宅建設的投融資保障機制,以保障資金需求方順利籌集住宅建設所需資金,降低金融機構等資金供給方的投資風險。 (7)從財政扶持、農(nóng)村金融體系創(chuàng)新等方面提出了10條政策性建議。本文認為,從廣義上講,政府的政策引導也是一種融資方式,它能夠起到“四兩撥千斤”的作用,引導社會各類資金進入新農(nóng)村住宅建設領域,因此本文著重從財政扶持、農(nóng)村金融體系創(chuàng)新、信用環(huán)境建設、農(nóng)村金融法律保障等方面提出了具體的政策性建議。 本文主要創(chuàng)新點包括：一是運用系統(tǒng)動力學因果回路圖模型對我國新農(nóng)村住宅建設各主體投融資行為進行了系統(tǒng)分析,為涉及多個主體的投融資決策提供了一種創(chuàng)新性的分析方法；二是選取新建住宅面積等5個指標,運用聚類分析方法對我國農(nóng)村地區(qū)進行了戰(zhàn)略分組；三是運用系統(tǒng)動力學存量流量圖的思想,構建了新農(nóng)村住宅建設的投融資需求定量預測模型；四是基于我國社會主義發(fā)展現(xiàn)階段的國情,構建了新農(nóng)村住宅建設的投融資模式及保障機制；五是基于DHGF綜合評價方法,構建了新農(nóng)村住宅建設的投融資績效評價模型,并進行了實證檢驗。
[Abstract]:Report of the Seventeenth Party Congress pointed out: "urban and rural development, promote the construction of new socialist countryside, solve agriculture, rural areas, farmers, related to the overall well-off society, we must always as a priority among priorities" of the party and government work. The overall level of a national rural housing construction reflects the production and development of the the national rural area to a great extent, the prosperity of rural life, rural civilization and the village, the overall rural residential construction is an important link of the construction of the new socialist countryside, is the embodiment of carrying out the central spirit, and in all aspects of the new rural residential construction, investment and financing is very important and it is directly related to the residential construction work can be carried out smoothly.
The current situation of the development of the investment field in the rural housing construction in terms of investment and financing, there are still such as credit capital supply and demand contradiction, a serious shortage of funds, loans to farmers financing problems, single financing channel, these problems restrict the work of the new rural residential construction in our country smoothly. On the other hand, the development of financial the field of city residential construction in China is gradually mature, the theory and practice have made the long-term development, financing and city housing finance field there is still a big gap between investment and rural residential construction.
Based on the above background, this paper relies on the national science and technology major projects "rural residential planning and construction technology standard research framework" (project number: 2008BAJ08B16), the status of investment and financing of rural housing construction in China were studied in detail, summed up the factors restricting the development of investment and financing of new rural residential construction in China: policy financial support is insufficient. Commercial financial profit transfer to the city, the cooperative financial system defect existed. According to these factors, this paper argues that the innovation of rural financial system is a major breakthrough in solving the contradiction between supply and demand of funds in China's new rural residential construction at present.
Clustering analysis through the use of system dynamics causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and a series of methods, construct the quantitative prediction model of investment and financing needs of the new rural housing construction, 5 kinds of new financing model of rural residential construction, 6 types of investment and financing mechanism, and investment and financing performance evaluation model and in Tianjin, Huaming town homestead wards model for empirical test examples of financing performance evaluation model, and from the point of view of our new rural residential construction investment to put forward policy suggestions. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) to find out the factors most directly affect the investment and financing of investment and financing behavior. Mainly includes: the policy and financial support, local officials performance evaluation indicators, residential construction project is expected, the borrower's repayment ability and willingness to repay, the opportunity cost of capital and the risk of bad debts, social capital into the degree of financing cost and financing difficulty the building, and the purchase cost.
(2) put forward the key points to solve the financing of rural residential construction in our country. Mainly including: the reform of local government performance evaluation system, the evaluation index of the development of people's livelihood residential construction into the evaluation system; strengthen financial supervision, to eliminate the phenomenon of rent-seeking; speeding up the system construction of farmers; revitalize rural land resources, realize capitalization the operation of assets; widely to attract social funds, explore diversified financing mode.
(3) draw the system investment and financing demand forecast of the flow chart, through the supply and demand balance of supply and demand of funds. The judgment calculation by using Vensim PLE software to draw the system of investment and financing demand forecast of the flow chart, the calculation formula for the difference between supply and demand (money demand forecast value - the actual supply of funds), the difference between supply and demand is positive, that money not fully meet the demand, there is contradiction between supply and demand of funds; the difference between supply and demand is zero or negative, indicating that capital requirements are better satisfied in financing work smoothly.
(4) according to the different financing channels and financing of the main building 5 new financing model of rural residential construction. This paper argues that the difference of economic development level of China's vast rural areas is large, can not solve all the problems in an investment and financing mode, so according to the main body of financing, financing channels and sources of funding. Different construction funds raised, the local government investment and financing platform, real estate enterprises, land finance, policy finance and cooperative finance complementary 5 financing mode.
(5) cluster analysis was carried out in rural areas, and in each area for investment and financing of the dominant mode of the suitability of the sort. Finally the conclusion is: Shanghai, a group of the most suitable self financing mode of Liaoning, a group of the most suitable for the local government investment and financing platform model of Sichuan, a group of the most suitable land resources and financing mode, a group of Tibet the most suitable policy finance and cooperative finance complementary mode.
(6) construction of 6 new rural residential construction investment and financing mechanism. This paper suggested that the finance guide mechanism, financial innovation mechanism, legal safeguard mechanism, farmers credit mechanism, 6 aspects of risk sharing mechanism and risk compensation mechanism, construction of new rural residential construction investment and financing mechanism, in order to ensure the funding needs smoothly to raise funds for housing construction, reduce financial institutions such as the money supply side investment risk.
(7) from the financial support, puts forward 10 policy suggestions of rural financial system innovation. This paper argues that, broadly speaking, the government's policy guidance is a kind of financing way, it can play "42 pounds" role, and guide various types of capital into the new rural social housing construction. This paper focuses on the financial support, the innovation of rural financial system, credit environment construction, puts forward concrete policy suggestions of rural financial legal protection.
In this paper, the main innovations include: first, using the system dynamics causal loop diagram model for the main body of the new rural residential construction of China's investment and financing behavior systematically, provides an analysis method for innovative financing decisions involving multiple subjects; two is the 5 index selection of new residential area, the use of cluster analysis method of the strategic group on China's rural areas; three is the use of system dynamics stock flow diagram theory, construct the prediction model of the investment demand of quantitative new rural residential construction; the four is China's socialist development stage based on the situation of construction, investment and financing mode and guarantee mechanism of the new rural residential construction; five is based on DHGF comprehensive evaluation method, establishes the evaluation model of investment and financing performance of new rural residential construction, and an empirical test.

【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301.3;F302.6;F832.4

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