本文選題：外匯儲備　切入點：規(guī)模風險　出處：《浙江大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文在總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于外匯儲備風險研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國加速推動人民幣資本項目開放的宏觀背景,將我國持有的巨額外匯儲備面臨的安全問題分為兩大類,一類是外匯儲備的規(guī)模風險,另一類則是外匯儲備的結(jié)構(gòu)性風險,結(jié)構(gòu)性風險又被分為了存量資產(chǎn)配侕結(jié)構(gòu)風險和新增外匯儲備來源結(jié)構(gòu)風險兩種情況來討論。 基于這樣的思路,本文首先研究了資本項目開放條件下中國外匯儲備的適度規(guī)模問題,得出了當前中國外匯儲備總量過度的結(jié)論。在數(shù)據(jù)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文又結(jié)合了資本項目開放可能導致金融危機爆發(fā)的國際經(jīng)驗,提出了中國巨額外匯儲備在可預期的未來依然存在著不足的可能這一觀點,同時也分析了外匯儲備規(guī)模過大的另一種風險：外匯儲備規(guī)模過大對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟運行造成的負面影響。其次,本文對當前中國外匯儲備資產(chǎn)配侕結(jié)構(gòu)所面臨風險進行了闡述,進而得出了在不影響國家金融安全的前提下,中國應逐步調(diào)整以美元資產(chǎn)為主體的外匯儲備資產(chǎn)配侕結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)論。最后從新增外匯儲備來源結(jié)構(gòu)角度出發(fā),分析了影響中國外匯儲備綜合狀況的影響因素,并特別強調(diào)了資本項目開放中一些“中國式”的特殊風險。 在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對我國外匯儲備風險的防范提出了相應的對策和建議,同時也對人民幣資本項目開放進程應該注意的問題提出了自己的一點看法。
[Abstract]:On the basis of summarizing the research on the risk of foreign exchange reserve at home and abroad and combining with the macro background of accelerating the opening of RMB capital account in China, this paper divides the security problems faced by the huge foreign exchange reserves held by our country into two categories. One is the scale risk of the foreign exchange reserve, the other is the structural risk of the foreign exchange reserve. The structural risk is divided into two situations: the structural risk of the allocation of the stock assets and the structural risk of the source of the new foreign exchange reserve. Based on this idea, this paper first studies the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves under the condition of capital account opening, and draws the conclusion that the total amount of China's foreign exchange reserves is excessive. This paper also combines the international experience that the opening of capital account may lead to the outbreak of financial crisis, and puts forward the view that China's huge foreign exchange reserves are still insufficient in the foreseeable future. At the same time, it also analyzes another kind of risk of excessive scale of foreign exchange reserve: the negative effect of excessive scale of foreign exchange reserve on the macro-economic operation of our country. Secondly, this paper expounds the risks faced by China's foreign exchange reserve asset allocation structure at present. The conclusion is that, without affecting the national financial security, China should gradually adjust the structure of the allocation of foreign exchange reserve assets with US dollar assets as the main body. Finally, from the perspective of the new foreign exchange reserve source structure, This paper analyzes the influence factors on the comprehensive situation of China's foreign exchange reserves, and emphasizes the special risks of "Chinese style" in capital account opening. On the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the prevention of the risk of foreign exchange reserve in China, and also puts forward some views on the problems that should be paid attention to in the course of opening up the RMB capital account.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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