發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-15 11:26

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)周期 房地產(chǎn)信貸 貨幣供應(yīng)量 合成指數(shù) VAR模型　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展帶動(dòng)或產(chǎn)生了對商業(yè)空間、住宅及配套服務(wù)設(shè)施的需求,并帶動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)市場的興起。目前在我國,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)已經(jīng)成為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要?jiǎng)恿�。改革開放以來,我國的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)得到了快速發(fā)展,并進(jìn)入了前所未有的發(fā)展時(shí)期。在發(fā)展過程中,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)表現(xiàn)出來的周期性波動(dòng)特征引起了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的極大關(guān)注,并試圖運(yùn)用各種方法對這種周期性進(jìn)行描述,探討周期性波動(dòng)的形成原因及影響因素。 房地產(chǎn)信貸的資金支持是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)生長和發(fā)展的重要因素。在我國,銀行信貸是房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金的主要來源,如果將房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)的資金加總,其中大約70%都來自銀行的房地產(chǎn)信貸。由于我國的資本市場發(fā)展還不是特別充分,因此其他融資方式如股權(quán)融資、債券融資、信托融資所占比例比較小。除此之外,由于房地產(chǎn)具有不可移動(dòng)的特點(diǎn),決定了不同國家、不同城市的房地產(chǎn)市場具有很大差別。正是因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)信貸與房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)之間有著緊密的聯(lián)系,而且房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出區(qū)域性、多元化的特點(diǎn),本文致力于研究山東省房地產(chǎn)周期性波動(dòng)和房地產(chǎn)信貸的實(shí)證關(guān)系。 本文共分為六個(gè)部分。第一部分簡單介紹了文章的研究背景和選題的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,并從兩個(gè)角度陳述了國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀。第二部分從理論的角度分析了房地產(chǎn)周期與房地產(chǎn)信貸之間的關(guān)系。第三部分從房地產(chǎn)投資額、資金來源、需求供給分析等多個(gè)角度對目前山東省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了描述。第四部分是本文主體思想的體現(xiàn),該部分運(yùn)用VAR模型實(shí)證分析了山東省房地產(chǎn)周期與房地產(chǎn)信貸之前的關(guān)系,研究得出房地產(chǎn)信貸對房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng)有滯后的正向的影響,因而可以用信貸政策適當(dāng)控制房地產(chǎn)周期波動(dòng),而相對來說,貨幣供應(yīng)量的擴(kuò)張或者收縮對平抑房地產(chǎn)周期性波動(dòng)比較無效。第五部分根據(jù)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果和山東省房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)目前的現(xiàn)狀,從四個(gè)方面對房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控提出了政策建議。最后一部分陳述了本文存在的不足,提出了下一步需要改進(jìn)的方向。
[Abstract]:The development of the economy has driven or generated the demand for commercial space, housing and ancillary services, and has led to the rise of the real estate market. The real estate industry has become an important industry in the development of the national economy and an important driving force for economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly and entered an unprecedented period of development. The characteristics of periodic fluctuations in real estate industry have attracted great attention of scholars at home and abroad, and try to use a variety of methods to describe the periodicity, to explore the formation of periodic fluctuations and influencing factors. Capital support for real estate credit is an important factor for the growth and development of the real estate industry. In China, bank credit is the main source of funds for real estate development. About 70% of them come from real estate credit from banks. Because the capital market in China is not fully developed, other financing methods, such as equity financing, bond financing, and trust financing, account for a relatively small proportion. Because of the immovable nature of real estate, the real estate market in different countries and cities is very different. It is precisely because of the close relationship between the real estate credit and the fluctuation of real estate cycle. Moreover, the development of real estate industry presents regional and diversified characteristics. This paper is devoted to studying the empirical relationship between the periodic fluctuation of real estate and the real estate credit in Shandong Province. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part briefly introduces the background of the research and the practical significance of the topic. The second part analyzes the relationship between the real estate cycle and the real estate credit from the theoretical point of view, the third part from the real estate investment, the source of funds, This paper describes the current situation of the real estate industry development in Shandong Province from the point of view of demand and supply analysis. Part 4th is the embodiment of the main idea of this paper. This part empirically analyzes the relationship between real estate cycle and real estate credit in Shandong Province by using VAR model, and draws the conclusion that real estate credit has a lag positive effect on real estate cycle fluctuation. Thus, credit policies can be used to properly control the volatility of the real estate cycle, while relatively speaking, The expansion or contraction of the money supply is relatively ineffective in stabilizing the cyclical fluctuations of real estate. 5th, according to the results of empirical analysis and the current situation of the real estate industry in Shandong Province, The last part states the deficiency of this paper and puts forward the direction to be improved in the next step.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.45

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