本文關(guān)鍵詞： 最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu) 實證分析 金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu) 銀行部門 金融市場　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：金融結(jié)構(gòu)是金融體系構(gòu)成要素的組成、相互關(guān)系及其量的比例,主要包括金融機(jī)構(gòu)(產(chǎn)業(yè))結(jié)構(gòu)、金融市場結(jié)構(gòu)、金融資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)和金融價格結(jié)構(gòu)等組成部分。金融體系在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與發(fā)展過程中的作用已經(jīng)達(dá)到普遍共識，然而金融結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系仍處于爭議之中，金融結(jié)構(gòu)研究自戈德斯密斯開始已發(fā)展了近半個世紀(jì)之久，關(guān)于這樣的研究也是汗牛充棟，從金融結(jié)構(gòu)“兩分法”、金融結(jié)構(gòu)無關(guān)論、金融服務(wù)論、金融法律論、金融功能觀、金融結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化論等，國內(nèi)外學(xué)者從各個視角努力為金融結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間關(guān)系增添有力論證。然而還有一些問題仍待解決，例如什么樣的金融結(jié)構(gòu)最有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展？是否存在最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)？金融結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化目標(biāo)是什么？何為金融結(jié)構(gòu)失衡？金融結(jié)構(gòu)失衡程度如何？金融結(jié)構(gòu)失衡對經(jīng)濟(jì)與穩(wěn)定的影響效果如何？這些問題在以往文獻(xiàn)中沒有明確回答或者研究不夠深入，而最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論對此類問題可以做出較為準(zhǔn)確的回答。林毅夫等人提出的最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論則是一套新的理論，是金融結(jié)構(gòu)研究領(lǐng)域新的努力與嘗試，最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論是對傳統(tǒng)金融結(jié)構(gòu)研究的突破、發(fā)展與補充，然而最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)研究尚處于初步階段，理論體系仍不完善，并缺乏大量理論與實證研究。本文則在一個改進(jìn)的最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論框架內(nèi)，對林毅夫等人發(fā)展起來的最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論進(jìn)行新的解釋，運用現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)分析工具，對金融結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了較為系統(tǒng)的歸納，通過建立一個新的最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論框架來解釋金融結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的作用機(jī)理，構(gòu)建最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論模型，并進(jìn)行實證分析，試圖去回答以往研究中圍繞金融結(jié)構(gòu)尚未解決的問題，回答了最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)是否存在的問題，最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的動態(tài)性，金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)的問題，金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)程度如何？金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生何種影響？并且將最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論應(yīng)用與中國，分析中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)是否偏離實體經(jīng)濟(jì)所決定的最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)？如若偏離其偏離程度如何？中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響效果？如何去避免或降低金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)所產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響，等等話題。以上這些圍繞最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的話題是本文的研究任務(wù)。 第二章節(jié)最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論的理論淵源。主要是對已有的金融結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系、最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論的淵源進(jìn)行梳理。 第三章節(jié)最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論分析，在前文關(guān)于最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論的理論淵源的梳理基礎(chǔ)上，通過對金融結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間關(guān)系，構(gòu)建了最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的理論體系，該體系主要從最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論模型、最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)動態(tài)性、最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離、金融結(jié)構(gòu)趨向最優(yōu)的優(yōu)化與調(diào)整等構(gòu)成一個可供實證的總體研究思路。 第四章節(jié)最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的實證分析，本章節(jié)是基于第三章節(jié)理論分析的結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,利用可獲得的跨國樣本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實證分析,企圖找出相應(yīng)的經(jīng)驗論據(jù)來支持研究的理論觀點。經(jīng)過實證檢驗顯示：1.一國在其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中存在最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)，金融結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間存在著“倒U”型關(guān)系；2.隨著各國法律、文化、政治、宗教、經(jīng)濟(jì)金融等因素的變化最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生動態(tài)性移動，決定了每個經(jīng)濟(jì)體在一定發(fā)展階段都有各自的最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)。并通過內(nèi)生增長模型，設(shè)計了最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的估算模型，然后分別選取市場主導(dǎo)型國家美國與銀行主導(dǎo)型國家德國最為典型代表國進(jìn)行分析。 第五章節(jié)最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的偏離對金融穩(wěn)定性的影響。本章節(jié)在最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離特征的理論分析基礎(chǔ)上，設(shè)計金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)程度指標(biāo)，結(jié)合33個國家在1989年-2009年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)程度與金融穩(wěn)定性之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，隨著金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)程度加大，銀行危機(jī)與金融危機(jī)發(fā)生的概率增加，金融穩(wěn)定性下降，金融風(fēng)險增加。 第六章中國最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)研究。本章節(jié)首先運用統(tǒng)計學(xué)方法對中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行描述性分析，并估算出實體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所需求的中國最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)估計值。在此基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)程度與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系模型分析金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)給經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來的影響效果，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)偏離最優(yōu)狀態(tài)的程度加深，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平降低。然后在對最優(yōu)金融偏離的模型設(shè)置中加入外生沖擊變量，，將金融監(jiān)管、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、金融市場化程度、法律制度等納入到模型中進(jìn)行實證分析，結(jié)果表明有效的金融監(jiān)管、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整、金融市場化程度的深入與法律制度的完善將會減小最優(yōu)金融結(jié)構(gòu)的偏離所帶來的負(fù)面影響。 第七章是研究結(jié)論與政策建議。通過前文對中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)實證分析的基礎(chǔ)之上，討論了中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)存在的問題，針對中國金融結(jié)構(gòu)提出了相應(yīng)的優(yōu)化與調(diào)整的對策建議。
[Abstract]:The financial structure is composed of elements of the financial system, the proportion relationship and the amount, including financial institutions (industry) structure, financial market structure, financial structure and financial asset price structure part. The role of the financial system in the process of economic growth and development has reached a general consensus, however, the relationship between financial structure and economic the development is still controversial, has been the development of financial structure for nearly half a century since Gedesimi Adams, on such a study is an immense number of books from the financial structure, the "dichotomy", independent financial structure theory, financial services theory, financial legal theory, financial function, financial structure optimization theory, scholars at home and abroad from every perspective to the relationship between financial structure and economic development more powerful argument. But there are still some problems to be solved, such as what kind of financial structure The most conducive to economic development? Whether there is an optimal financial structure? What is the optimal financial structure? What is the financial structure imbalance? How financial structure imbalance? How to influence on the financial structure imbalance and economic stability? There is no definite answer to these problems or lack of in-depth study in the literature, and to such problems can be made a more accurate answer to the optimal financial structure theory. The optimal financial structure theory proposed by Yifu Lin et al is a new theory, is hard and try to research the new financial structure, the optimal financial structure theory is the study of traditional financial structure breakthrough, development and supplement, but the Research of optimal financial structure is still in the initial stage, the theory of the system is still imperfect, and lack of a large number of theoretical and empirical research. In this paper an improved optimal financial structure theory within the framework of Yifu Lin The optimal financial structure theory developed a new explanation, by using modern economic analysis tools, the financial structure theory were systematically summarized, to explain the mechanism between financial structure and economic development through the establishment of a new optimal financial structure, constructing the optimal financial structure theory and empirical model. The analysis, trying to answer the financial structure problems in the previous studies, the answer to the problems of the existence of the optimal financial structure, dynamic optimal financial structure, the optimal problem of deviation of the financial structure, the optimal degree of how the financial structure deviates from the optimal? What kind of impact on the economic development of the financial structure and financial structure will deviate from the optimal? The theory and application of Chinese analysis, optimal financial structure decides whether or not to deviate from the real economy Chinese financial structure? If the deviation from the What is the degree of China's financial structure deviating from the optimal effect on economic development? How to avoid or reduce the negative effects of financial structure deviating from the best?
The second chapter is the theoretical origin of the optimal financial structure theory. It is mainly about the relationship between the existing financial structure and economic development, and the origin of the optimal financial structure theory.
The third chapter analyses the optimal financial structure theory, basing on combing theories about origin theory of optimal financial structure, based on the relationship between financial structure and economic development, constructing the theoretical system of optimal financial structure, the system mainly from the optimal financial structure theory model, dynamic optimal financial structure, deviate from the optimal financial structure. The optimal financial structure tends to optimize and adjust the form for a general empirical research.
The fourth chapter empirical analysis of optimal financial structure, this chapter is based on the analysis of the theory of the conclusion of the third chapter, using an empirical analysis of multinational sample data can be obtained, theory attempts to find the corresponding empirical evidence to support the research. Through empirical test shows: 1. of the existence of the optimal financial structure in the process of economic development in an inverted "U" relationship between financial structure and economic development; 2. countries with legal, cultural, political, religious, optimal financial structure changes in the economic and financial factors such as the occurrence of dynamic movement, the decision of each economy have their own optimal financial structure in a certain stage of development. And through endogenous growth the design model, the estimation model of optimal financial structure, and then select the market oriented countries the United States and bank oriented countries in Germany is the most typical representative of China Analysis.
From the fifth chapter the influence on financial stability of optimal financial structure. The analysis of deviation characteristics in this chapter, the optimal financial structure based on the theory of optimal financial structure design, degree of deviation, with 33 countries in the empirical analysis of panel data during 1989 -2009, there is a negative correlation between the financial structure and the degree of deviation from the optimal financial with the development of financial stability, increase the degree of deviation from the optimal structure, increase the probability of banking crisis and the financial crisis, the financial stability decreases, financial risks have increased.
The sixth chapter China optimal financial structure research. This chapter first use of statistical methods of descriptive analysis of China financial structure, and to estimate the optimal financial structure China development needs of the real economy estimates. On this basis, the construction effect, the relationship model Chinese deviate from the optimal degree of financial structure and economic development analysis of the financial structure deviates from the optimal to bring the result of economic development, with the Chinese financial structure deviates from the optimal state of deepening Chinese economic development level decreased. Then on adding variables to exogenous shocks model optimal financial deviation, financial supervision, economic structure, financial liberalization, legal system into the model for empirical analysis results that effective financial regulation, the adjustment of economic structure, and further the legal system of financial marketization will improve the reduction The negative effects of the deviation of the small optimal financial structure.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. Based on the empirical analysis of China's financial structure, this paper discusses the problems of China's financial structure, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for China's financial structure optimization and adjustment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832

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本文編號：1464958