發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-23 08:19

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 名義有效匯率 匯率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制 物價(jià)水平　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：匯率無(wú)論對(duì)于國(guó)家還是普通百姓的經(jīng)濟(jì)生活都是一個(gè)非常重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，隨著我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放的進(jìn)程不斷加快和日益廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化趨勢(shì)。匯率不管是對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家還是國(guó)與國(guó)之間的經(jīng)貿(mào)往來(lái)影響越來(lái)越大，已經(jīng)逐漸成為反映宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)好壞的重要指標(biāo)。而我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在匯率調(diào)整的同時(shí)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也隨之改變，特別是國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)水平，而且國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)水平的變動(dòng)跟國(guó)民生活更是密不可分。 隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的不斷加深，現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)的開(kāi)放程度逐步增強(qiáng)，匯率和國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)作為開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中一國(guó)貨幣對(duì)外價(jià)值和對(duì)內(nèi)價(jià)值的表現(xiàn)，兩者之間存在密切的聯(lián)系。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅克魯格曼（Paul R. Krugman）認(rèn)為，匯率的大幅波動(dòng)會(huì)導(dǎo)致貶值國(guó)家通貨膨脹，升值國(guó)家通貨緊縮。而我國(guó)自2005年7月21日實(shí)行匯率改革以來(lái)，人民幣升值幅度逐步加快。人民幣兌美元匯率屢創(chuàng)新高，至2012年12月31日人民幣兌美元匯率中間價(jià)報(bào)6.2855，累計(jì)升值幅度超過(guò)31.2%。同時(shí)與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的是，國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)水平也出現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)勁的上漲勢(shì)頭，2008年CPI上漲了5.9%,一季度更是上漲了8%。進(jìn)入2010年下半年以來(lái)物價(jià)水平上漲勢(shì)頭不減，11月份的當(dāng)月最高值達(dá)到5.1%，2011年CPI上漲4.1%，2012年CPI上漲1.7%。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在我國(guó)匯率與物價(jià)的關(guān)系似乎與經(jīng)典理論相悖，但又確實(shí)存在某種內(nèi)在的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系。所以，，探究匯率和物價(jià)水平之間的關(guān)系和之間的傳導(dǎo)路徑變得越來(lái)越重要。通過(guò)了解和掌握匯率和物價(jià)水平之間的聯(lián)系，我們能更好的在控制一國(guó)物價(jià)水平的同時(shí)，利用好匯率這一宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控手段，這對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展具有極為重要的借鑒意義。 本文在參考了大量的有關(guān)匯率與物價(jià)水平相互關(guān)系的文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)影響消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)的主要因素：人民幣名義有效匯率，貨幣供應(yīng)量，進(jìn)口價(jià)格指數(shù)，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值，銀行間七天拆借利率等運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的多元線(xiàn)性回歸模型來(lái)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究，得出人民幣名義有效匯率與物價(jià)水平存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，而貨幣供應(yīng)量，進(jìn)口價(jià)格指數(shù)，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和銀行間七天拆借利率對(duì)物價(jià)水平都是正相關(guān)關(guān)系，即上述五個(gè)變量上漲會(huì)導(dǎo)致物價(jià)水平上漲。造成物價(jià)上升的正的效應(yīng)明顯大于負(fù)的效應(yīng)，所以在各種因素的共同影響下會(huì)使國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)上漲，就會(huì)使人民幣表現(xiàn)出對(duì)外升值卻對(duì)內(nèi)貶值的現(xiàn)象。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important economic variable for the economic life of both the country and ordinary people. With the process of China's reform and opening to the outside world speeding up and the trend of economic globalization, the exchange rate has more and more influence on the economic and trade exchanges between one country and the other countries. It has gradually become an important indicator of the macroeconomic situation, and we have found that other economic data, especially domestic price levels, have changed along with the exchange rate adjustment. And the change of domestic price level and national life are inextricably linked. With the deepening of global economic integration, the opening degree of the real economy is gradually enhanced. The exchange rate and domestic price are the performance of the external and internal value of a country's currency in an open economy. There is a strong link between the two. American economist Paul Krugman argues that large fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to devalued national inflation. Since the reform of exchange rate in July 21st 2005, the appreciation of RMB has been accelerated gradually, and the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar has repeatedly reached a new high. By December 31st 2012, the central exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.2855, with a cumulative appreciation of more than 31.2k.At the same time, the corresponding value was. Domestic price level also showed a strong upward momentum, CPI rose 5.9% in 2008, the first quarter is up 8%. Into the second half of 2010, the price level has not decreased. On November the month peaked at 5.1, CPI rose 4.1 on 2011, and CPI rose 1.7 on 2012. We found. In China, the relationship between exchange rate and price seems to be contrary to the classical theory, but there is a certain internal linkage relationship. It is becoming more and more important to explore the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level and the transmission path between them. By understanding and mastering the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level, we can better control the price level of a country at the same time. It is of great significance for the healthy development of the national economy to make good use of the exchange rate as a means of macroeconomic regulation and control. Based on the reference to a large number of literature on the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level, this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the consumer price index: the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB, the money supply, and the import price index. The gross domestic product (GDP) and the seven-day inter-bank lending rate are used to carry out empirical research by using the multiple linear regression model in econometrics. It is concluded that there is a negative correlation between the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and the price level. The money supply, import price index, gross domestic product (GDP) and the seven-day interbank lending rate are all positively correlated with the price level. That is, the rise of the above five variables will lead to the rise of the price level. The positive effect of the price rise is obviously greater than the negative effect, so under the influence of various factors, the domestic price will rise. Will cause the RMB to show the external appreciation but to the internal depreciation phenomenon.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F726

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