本文關(guān)鍵詞：假設(shè)清算法在不良貸款評估中的應(yīng)用研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 不良貸款 評估方法 假設(shè)清算法 有效資產(chǎn) 案例分析

【摘要】：無論是發(fā)達國家、發(fā)展中國家還是經(jīng)濟體制轉(zhuǎn)型國家,在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的過程中均不同程度地遇到了巨額的銀行壞賬問題,在世界經(jīng)濟一體化特別是中國經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的背景下,解決巨額的金融不良貸款問題成為我國經(jīng)濟工作的重中之重。要想有效的處置不良貸款,前提條件是對其進行準(zhǔn)確的評估,因此,選擇一個適當(dāng)?shù)脑u估方法顯得尤為重要。然而不良貸款與正常的資產(chǎn)相比較而言是特殊的資產(chǎn),其特殊性體現(xiàn)在不良貸款是經(jīng)營穩(wěn)定性出現(xiàn)問題時的資產(chǎn),所以普通資產(chǎn)的評估方法不適合用于不良貸款的評估。 本文首先回顧了現(xiàn)有文獻對于不良貸款評估的各種方法的研究,對幾種方法理論上的對比分析之后,歸納出不同評估方法的適用邊界。本文認(rèn)為就我國現(xiàn)在的金融市場情況以及不良貸款情況的現(xiàn)狀而言,不適合使用信用評價法以及專家打分法,因為這兩種方法主觀性比較強,也不適合用交易案例和回歸分析法,因為沒有足夠的案例數(shù)據(jù),通過本文的分析,我們認(rèn)為假設(shè)清算法更符合我國不良貸款的評估環(huán)境。本文結(jié)合我國金融業(yè)不良貸款的實際情況,選取假設(shè)清算法作為不良貸款的評估方法,以假設(shè)清算法評估理論為基礎(chǔ),根據(jù)假設(shè)清算法運用前提,結(jié)合假設(shè)清算法的運用現(xiàn)狀及假設(shè)清算法運用中存在的問題,分析了假設(shè)清算法的主要運用過程,以及假設(shè)清算法運用中應(yīng)該注意的問題,假設(shè)清算法主要適用于經(jīng)營持續(xù)性較差、不能充分保證未來收益的企業(yè),將假設(shè)清算法細(xì)分為假設(shè)清算成本價格法、假設(shè)清算市場價格法,從而更加細(xì)致的在案例中運用假設(shè)清算法。通過引入案例,清晰闡述假設(shè)清算法在實際案例當(dāng)中的操作步驟。在具體的案例運用當(dāng)中就評估條件中的問題逐一解決,不同的資產(chǎn)相應(yīng)的用假設(shè)清算成本價格法及假設(shè)清算市場價格法進行評估,得出了最終案例不良貸款的評估價值。 本文的主要研究結(jié)論有：(1)假設(shè)清算法的評估適用于經(jīng)營持續(xù)性較差、不能充分保證未來收益的企業(yè),使用假設(shè)清算法對案例進行評估時,要求評估人員對公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債詳細(xì)分析；(2)在運用假設(shè)清算法進行評估時,不僅僅要考慮企業(yè)財務(wù)因素,如償債能力等,往往更需要關(guān)注其他非財務(wù)因素,如抵押物的質(zhì)量如何以及保證人的保證能力。這樣才能讓評估結(jié)果更接近于不良貸款的真實價值；(3)在運用假設(shè)清算法進行評估時,對有效資產(chǎn)、有效負(fù)債以及資產(chǎn)貶值的準(zhǔn)確認(rèn)定十分重要,會對最終的評估結(jié)果產(chǎn)生比較大的影響,不同的認(rèn)定會使得分析結(jié)果具有較大不同。
[Abstract]:No matter developed countries, developing countries or countries with economic system transition, in the process of economic development, they have met with a huge amount of bad bank loans in varying degrees. Under the background of the world economic integration, especially the rapid development of China's economy, solving the huge financial non-performing loan problem has become the most important part of our country's economic work. The precondition is to evaluate it accurately, so it is very important to choose an appropriate evaluation method. However, the non-performing loan is a special asset compared with the normal assets. Its particularity is that non-performing loan (NPLs) is the asset of the problem of operation stability, so the evaluation method of ordinary assets is not suitable for the evaluation of NPLs. This paper first reviews the existing literature on the various methods of non-performing loans evaluation research, several methods of theoretical comparison and analysis. According to the current situation of financial market and non-performing loan in our country, it is not suitable to use credit evaluation method and expert scoring method. Because of the subjectivity of these two methods, it is not suitable to use transaction cases and regression analysis, because there is not enough case data, through the analysis of this paper. We believe that the hypothetical liquidation method is more in line with the assessment environment of non-performing loans in China. This paper selects the hypothetical liquidation method as the evaluation method of non-performing loans in combination with the actual situation of non-performing loans in China's financial industry. Based on the theory of hypothetical liquidation evaluation, according to the application premise of hypothetical liquidation method, combined with the present situation of hypothetical liquidation method and the problems existing in the application of hypothetical liquidation method, this paper analyzes the main application process of hypothetical liquidation method. And the hypothetical liquidation method should be paid attention to, hypothetical liquidation method is mainly suitable for enterprises with poor continuity of operation and can not fully guarantee future income, the hypothetical liquidation method is subdivided into hypothetical liquidation cost pricing method. Hypothetical liquidation market pricing method, thus more detailed use of hypothetical liquidation in the case. Through the introduction of cases. Explain clearly the operation steps of hypothetical liquidation method in actual cases. In the specific case application, solve the problems in the evaluation condition one by one. Different assets are evaluated by hypothetical liquidation cost pricing method and hypothetical liquidation market price method, and the evaluation value of non-performing loans in the final case is obtained. The main conclusion of this paper is: (1) the hypothetical liquidation method is suitable for enterprises with poor operating continuity and can not fully guarantee the future income, when using the hypothetical liquidation method to evaluate the case. Ask the appraiser to analyze the assets and liabilities of the company in detail; When using hypothetical liquidation method to evaluate, we should not only consider the financial factors of enterprises, such as solvency, but also pay attention to other non-financial factors. Such as the quality of the collateral and the guarantor's ability to guarantee, so that the assessment results closer to the real value of non-performing loans; 3) when using the hypothetical liquidation method to evaluate, it is very important to identify the effective assets, effective liabilities and the depreciation of assets, which will have a great impact on the final evaluation results. Different identification will make the analysis results are quite different.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F830.42;F832.4

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