本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究　出處：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 股票市場(chǎng) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 資本化率 流動(dòng)性 波動(dòng)性

【摘要】：我國(guó)改革開放已經(jīng)經(jīng)過(guò)了30多年的歷程,在這30多年中經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展保持了較高的增長(zhǎng)速度,其中金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)揮了不小的作用,然而在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),也出現(xiàn)了資本和勞動(dòng)過(guò)剩的問(wèn)題,這說(shuō)明,在我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中,資本和勞動(dòng)組合的配置功能出現(xiàn)了一定的問(wèn)題,這與金融發(fā)展有關(guān)。目前我國(guó)銀行業(yè)經(jīng)過(guò)了多次改革,已經(jīng)基本確立了較完善的治理結(jié)構(gòu)和較高的運(yùn)行效率。另一方面,我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)才走過(guò)了二十個(gè)年頭,發(fā)展還不成熟,與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)脫節(jié)嚴(yán)重,其發(fā)展嚴(yán)重滯后于西方國(guó)家的股票市場(chǎng)。股票市場(chǎng)作為未來(lái)金融市場(chǎng)的主體,其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響如何是一個(gè)需要討論的很現(xiàn)實(shí)的也是很迫切的問(wèn)題。 本文首先在引言中闡明選題的背景,進(jìn)一步提出本文想要探討的問(wèn)題,然后從多方面回顧國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)外學(xué)者對(duì)該問(wèn)題的研究方法以及成果,總結(jié)了眾多學(xué)者對(duì)于該問(wèn)題的分歧,以及各自所持的觀點(diǎn)及依據(jù)。 其次本文介紹了股票市場(chǎng)的基本功能,由于股票市場(chǎng)的普遍適用性,本文將股票市場(chǎng)的基本功能歸納為五個(gè)方面,第一、提供流動(dòng)性；第二、分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；第三、獲取公司信息；第四、改善公司治理；第五、動(dòng)員社會(huì)儲(chǔ)蓄。然后本文從路徑分析的角度,探討了其可能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的三個(gè)路徑：第一、改變儲(chǔ)蓄與投資之間轉(zhuǎn)化的比例ω；第二、提高資本生產(chǎn)效率A；第三、改變私人儲(chǔ)蓄率S；從傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的角度,探討了其可能影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的三個(gè)渠道：第一、財(cái)富效應(yīng)渠道；第二、投資效應(yīng)渠道；第三、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表渠道。 再次本文從實(shí)證的角度開始探討我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。本文首先闡明了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)涵和能體現(xiàn)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的三個(gè)指標(biāo)資本化率、流動(dòng)性和波動(dòng)性。選取2000-2011年我國(guó)實(shí)際GDP、資本化率、波動(dòng)性和流動(dòng)性四個(gè)指標(biāo)的季度數(shù)據(jù),以實(shí)際GDP為因變量,以資本化率、波動(dòng)性和流動(dòng)性為自變量建立VAR模型,運(yùn)用約翰森協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)和脈沖響應(yīng)分析等多種計(jì)量分析方法,考察股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響和作用機(jī)制。通過(guò)約翰森協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)兩者之間有一定的相互關(guān)系。由格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)得到：表示股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的指標(biāo)資本化率與實(shí)際GDP存在雙向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)和股票市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性指標(biāo)與實(shí)際GDP存在單向的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)和股票市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性指標(biāo)是實(shí)際GDP的格蘭杰原因；而實(shí)際GDP卻不是股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)和股票市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性指標(biāo)的格蘭杰原因。脈沖響應(yīng)分析結(jié)果表明：股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)弱相關(guān),股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模、流動(dòng)性和波動(dòng)性對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響較小,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的影響是正向的。 最后本文針對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的實(shí)證結(jié)果,進(jìn)行了初步分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果中的弱相關(guān)性,可能是由于股票市場(chǎng)在監(jiān)督上市公司和提供有用信息方面發(fā)揮的作用是有限的,其資源配置效率還有待提高。原因歸納為以下幾點(diǎn)：第一、上市公司質(zhì)量不高；第二、股票市場(chǎng)存在較強(qiáng)的投機(jī)行為；第三、非流通股的存在；第四、政府的過(guò)度干預(yù)對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定性產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。由以上的分析我們看到我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)在總體上與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)還是有正向關(guān)系的,但是股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)揮的還是基礎(chǔ)的籌融資功能,本文從以下四個(gè)方面提出了政策建議：第一、轉(zhuǎn)變我國(guó)股市的定位；第二、擴(kuò)大股市規(guī)模；第三、加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管遏制投機(jī)；第四、防范金融危機(jī)。相信隨著我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)逐步的走向成熟化、規(guī)范化和國(guó)際化后,將會(huì)在更大程度上促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。
[Abstract]:China's reform and opening up has been 30 years of history, the economic development in the 30 years to maintain a high growth rate, the financial market has played an important role, but in China's sustained rapid economic growth at the same time, there is a problem of capital and labor surplus, this shows that in our country in the economic development, the combination of capital and labor allocation function of some problems with the financial development. At present, China's banking industry after several reforms, has established the basic operating efficiency is high and the perfect governance structure. On the other hand, China's stock market has been over twenty years. Development is not mature, the serious gap between the real economy, its development lags behind western countries stock market. The stock market as the subject of the future of the financial market, it is a need to discuss the impact on economic growth It's real and urgent.
This paper first explains the background in the introduction, this paper further proposes to investigate the problem, and then review the research methods of domestic and foreign scholars on this issue and results from many aspects, summed up many scholars about the problem and point of view and differences, according to their respective holdings.
Secondly, this paper introduces the basic functions of the stock market, due to the general applicability of the stock market, the stock market's basic functions include five aspects, first, to provide liquidity; second, reduce risk; third, to obtain the company's information; fourth, improve the corporate governance; the fifth, and then from the mobilization of social savings. Path analysis, discusses the three path may promote economic growth: first, change between savings and investment conversion ratio second, omega; to improve the capital efficiency of A; third, change the private savings rate S; from the transmission mechanism perspective, discusses the three channels are likely to affect the economic growth: the first second, the wealth effect, investment effect channel; channel; third, the balance sheet channel.
Again, from the empirical point of view began to explore the relationship between stock market and economic growth in China. The three indicators of capitalization rate this paper first clarifies the connotation of economic growth and can reflect the development of stock market, liquidity and volatility. By selecting the actual GDP 2000-2011 in our country, the capitalization rate, quarterly data of four index fluctuations and liquidity, real GDP as the dependent variable, the capitalization rate, volatility and liquidity to establish VAR model as independent variables, using the Johannsen cointegration test, Grainger causality test and impulse response analysis and other quantitative analysis methods to study the development of the stock market's impact on economic growth and the mechanism of action by Johannsen Co. The inspection found that there is a definite relation between the two. In the long term by Grainger causality test: the size of the stock market index capitalization rate and the actual existence of GDP bidirectional Glenn Jie Yin Fruit; there is a unidirectional causal relationship between Grainger index of stock market liquidity volatility and stock market index and the actual GDP index; liquidity of stock market volatility index and the stock market is the actual causes of Grainger GDP; and GDP is not the actual stock market volatility refers to the liquidity of the underlying reason Grainger index and the stock market pulse. Response analysis shows that the stock market development and economic growth of China's weak correlation, the size of the stock market, liquidity and volatility had little effect on economic growth, the impact of economic growth on the stock market scale is positive.
Finally, according to the empirical results of the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, are analyzed. The weak correlation between the empirical results, may be due to the stock market play in the supervision of listed companies and to provide useful information for the role is limited, the resource allocation efficiency needs to be improved. The reason is summarized as follows: first and the quality of listed companies is not high; second, the stock market has strong speculation; third, the existence of non tradable shares; fourth, seriously affect the stability of excessive government intervention in the stock market. From the above analysis, we can see that China's stock market in general and China's economic growth is still positive relationship. But the stock market play based financing function, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the following four aspects: first, the transformation of China's stock market positioning; second, expand Stock market scale; third, strengthen supervision and curb speculation; fourth, guard against financial crisis. I believe that with the gradual maturity of China's stock market, normalization and internationalization will promote China's economic growth to a greater extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51;F124

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