本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融上市公司投資價(jià)值與股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)的相關(guān)性研究　出處：《長(zhǎng)江大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融上市公司 投資價(jià)值 股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn) 因子分析法 相關(guān)性

【摘要】：我國證券市場(chǎng)從1990年成立以來,迄今已走過了20個(gè)年頭。作為連接上市公司和投資者的樞紐,證券市場(chǎng)在推動(dòng)我國市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和成熟方面做出了重要貢獻(xiàn)。但是,作為一個(gè)新興的快速發(fā)展市場(chǎng),證券市場(chǎng)目前還存在很多不足,股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)脫離了上市公司運(yùn)行的基本層面,投資者在資本市場(chǎng)上大多依靠?jī)r(jià)格波動(dòng)所形成的價(jià)差來獲取資本利得,這就給了市場(chǎng)操縱者利用大量資金操縱股票價(jià)格以獲取利益的機(jī)會(huì),股市淪為莊家斂財(cái)?shù)墓ぞ?嚴(yán)重?fù)p害了中小投資者的利益。而造成這些現(xiàn)象的根本原因在于我國證券市場(chǎng)的管理不夠規(guī)范,還未形成一套有效的資本市場(chǎng)管理機(jī)制,這是目前我國資本市場(chǎng)最嚴(yán)重也是亟待解決的問題。 金融行業(yè)是巨額資金的集散中心,牽涉面廣,聯(lián)動(dòng)性強(qiáng),在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中處于牽一發(fā)而動(dòng)全身的地位,因此各國政府都十分重視金融行業(yè)的發(fā)展。改革開放以來,我國開始對(duì)金融行業(yè)進(jìn)行體制改革,如今,已經(jīng)形成了一個(gè)以專業(yè)銀行為主體,中央銀行為核心,各種銀行和非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)并存的現(xiàn)代金融體系。由于金融業(yè)的在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要地位,以及國家政策的大力支持,它已成為股民心中最具投資價(jià)值的行業(yè)之一。 而金融上市公司作為金融行業(yè)的領(lǐng)頭羊,在經(jīng)營管理上應(yīng)該充分發(fā)揮示范與輻射效應(yīng),因此為了更好地分析我國證券市場(chǎng)的有效性問題,本文選擇金融上市公司作為研究對(duì)象,通過對(duì)金融上市公司投資價(jià)值與股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)關(guān)系的研究,尋求金融上市公司股票價(jià)格偏離投資價(jià)值的原因,從而規(guī)范金融上市公司的經(jīng)營管理,促進(jìn)金融市場(chǎng)積極健康發(fā)展。從投資者角度來說,中國的證券市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了二十多年的發(fā)展,雖然取得了一定的進(jìn)步,但是市場(chǎng)投機(jī)行為仍然明顯。一個(gè)成熟的投資者購買股票時(shí)的決策依據(jù)應(yīng)該是上市公司的投資價(jià)值,而不是抱著賭博的心態(tài)進(jìn)行“低買高賣”,通過研究上市公司的投資價(jià)值和股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)的相關(guān)性可以幫助投資者發(fā)現(xiàn)我國證券市場(chǎng)存在的問題,從而減少其投機(jī)行為,進(jìn)行理性投資。 本文以市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的價(jià)值規(guī)律為理論基礎(chǔ),采用實(shí)證分析的研究方法,以我國A股42家金融上市公司為研究對(duì)象,通過分析2008-2012年五年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)來研究上市公司的投資價(jià)值以及上市公司投資價(jià)值與其股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)之間的相關(guān)性,進(jìn)而說明我國證券市場(chǎng)的有效性問題,以期為投資者進(jìn)行股票投資提供依據(jù)。全文分為五個(gè)部分： 第一部分是緒論,從我國證券市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展歷程、現(xiàn)狀、存在的問題,以及金融上市公司的特點(diǎn)等方面,分析了本文選題的背景及意義,總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者在企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估及企業(yè)投資價(jià)值與股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)之間的關(guān)系等方面做出的貢獻(xiàn),確定了論文的研究?jī)?nèi)容、研究方法及整體框架。 第二部分是對(duì)上市公司投資價(jià)值和股票價(jià)格基礎(chǔ)理論的梳理,分析了影響上市公司投資價(jià)值的因素,重點(diǎn)總結(jié)了投資價(jià)值評(píng)估的方法以及對(duì)上市公司投資價(jià)值進(jìn)行評(píng)估的重要意義,通過對(duì)相關(guān)理論的梳理為論文的展開奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)。 第三部分是論文的研究重點(diǎn)之一,選取滬深證券交易所上市的42家金融上市公司作為研究對(duì)象,搜集了其2008-2012年五年的能夠反映上市公司投資價(jià)值的數(shù)據(jù),建立了綜合考慮上市公司盈利能力、營運(yùn)能力、成長(zhǎng)能力、償債能力的投資價(jià)值評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并運(yùn)用因子分析法計(jì)算出各上市公司投資價(jià)值的綜合得分及排名,據(jù)此可以直觀的看出投資價(jià)值較大的上市公司。 第四部分是在第三部分基礎(chǔ)上的深入,為了說明金融上市公司投資價(jià)值與股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)之間的相關(guān)性,將計(jì)算出的上市公司投資價(jià)值的綜合得分值作為投資價(jià)值指標(biāo)；將能夠反映上市公司股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)的指標(biāo)分為市場(chǎng)行情指標(biāo)(包括年均價(jià)、年成交額、年收益率、年振幅、年漲跌幅、年換手率等)和市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)(包括年化波動(dòng)率、beta值等),通過建立這兩類指標(biāo)的相關(guān)分析模型,運(yùn)用pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)探討二者之間的相關(guān)性,得出投資價(jià)值與股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系。 第五部分是對(duì)全文的總結(jié),給出了論文研究的三條結(jié)論,第一,我國金融上市公司股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重偏離其投資價(jià)值；第二,我國證券市場(chǎng)有效性缺失的現(xiàn)象并未出現(xiàn)持續(xù)改善的趨勢(shì)；第三,對(duì)上市公司投資價(jià)值的分析可以采用因子分析法等綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法。針對(duì)我國證券市場(chǎng)有效性缺失的原因提出了改進(jìn)措施：第一,政府應(yīng)該充分發(fā)揮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用,積極引導(dǎo)證券市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展；第二,完善市場(chǎng)機(jī)制,健全上市公司信息披露制度,第三,提高上市公司的經(jīng)營管理水平。
[Abstract]:Since its establishment in 1990 , China ' s securities market has passed 20 years . As a hub for connecting listed companies and investors , the securities market has made important contributions in promoting the development and maturity of the market economy . However , as a new and rapid development market , the stock market has been separated from the basic level of the operation of the listed company . The fundamental reason for these phenomena lies in that the management of the stock market is not standardized and the effective capital market management mechanism is not formed , which is the most serious problem in China ' s capital market . Since the reform and opening - up , our country has already formed a modern financial system with its main body and central bank as its core , various banks and non - bank financial institutions . Since the financial industry has become an important position in the national economy and the strong support of the national policy , it has become one of the most valuable industries in the people . As the leader of the financial industry , financial listed companies should give full play to the demonstration and radiation effect in the management and management , so as to analyze the relationship between the investment value of the financial listed companies and the performance of the stock market , the paper selects the financial listed company as the research object , so as to regulate the operation and management of the financial listed company and promote the healthy development of the financial market . Based on the value law of market economy , this paper studies the investment value of listed companies and the correlation between the investment value of listed companies and their stock market performance by analyzing the relevant data from 2008 to 2012 . The first part is the introduction , from the development course of our security market , the present situation , the existing problems , and the characteristics of the financial listed company , this paper analyzes the background and significance of this paper , summarizes the research content , the research method and the whole frame of the thesis . The second part is to sort out the investment value of listed companies and the basic theory of stock price , analyze the factors that affect the investment value of listed companies , focus on the methods of investment value evaluation and the important significance of the evaluation of the investment value of listed companies . The third part is one of the research focuses of the thesis , and the 42 financial listed companies listed on the Shanghai - Shenzhen Stock Exchange are selected as the research objects , and the data that can reflect the investment value of listed companies in 2008 - 2012 is collected , and the comprehensive score and ranking of the investment value of the listed companies are calculated by using the factor analysis method , so that the listed companies with larger investment value can be seen intuitively . The fourth part is on the basis of the third part , in order to illustrate the correlation between the investment value of the financial listed company and the performance of the stock market , the comprehensive score of the investment value of the listed company is regarded as the investment value index , and the index which can reflect the performance of the stock market of the listed company is divided into the market price index ( including annual average price , annual turnover , annual yield , annual amplitude , annual fluctuation rate , annual turnover rate , etc . ) and market risk index ( including annual fluctuation rate , beta value , etc . ) , and the correlation between the two types of indexes is discussed by using the correlation analysis model of the two types of indexes , and the correlation between the investment value and the performance of the stock market is obtained . The fifth part is the summary of the whole text , and gives three conclusions of the paper . First , the stock market performance of China ' s financial listed company deviates from its investment value seriously ; secondly , the analysis of the investment value of the listed company can adopt the comprehensive evaluation method such as factor analysis method . First , the government should give full play to the leadership role , actively guide the healthy development of the securities market ; secondly , perfect the market mechanism , perfect the information disclosure system of the listed company , and thirdly , improve the management level of the listed company .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F830.42;F832.51;F276.6

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