本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國外匯市場壓力與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的實證研究　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 外匯市場壓力 利率 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率 物價水平

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的背景下,中國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系、資本流動格局、金融市場環(huán)境的變化和人民幣的國際化等諸多問題都將影響著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展。如今,一方面我國國際收支連續(xù)多年出現(xiàn)雙順差,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對外依賴度不斷升高,激增的外匯儲備量使外匯市場壓力不斷增大。截至2013年末,中國外匯儲備余額已達(dá)38,213.15億美元,居于世界第一位。另一方面,在現(xiàn)行的匯率制度下,央行被迫投放的大量基礎(chǔ)貨幣抬高了物價水平,國內(nèi)通貨膨脹率居高不下。在遭受內(nèi)外部經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡之際,越來越多的人開始關(guān)注外匯市場與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。如何能在各種復(fù)雜多變的形勢下優(yōu)化國內(nèi)外市場發(fā)展環(huán)境,更好地發(fā)揮宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的作用是未來一段時間內(nèi)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的重要挑戰(zhàn)。因此,從理論和實踐兩方面系統(tǒng)地研究外匯市場壓力及其與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的關(guān)系對于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)決策的制定和未來中國金融的發(fā)展與改革都具有顯著意義。本文首先闡述了選題的背景,并分析了選題的理論和實踐意義,隨后又總結(jié)并歸納了現(xiàn)有國內(nèi)外相關(guān)命題的實證研究與理論文獻(xiàn)。第二部分,著重介紹了外匯市場壓力的含義及其測度模型,同時結(jié)合我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展情況,指出了外匯市場壓力形成的內(nèi)外部原因。其中外部原因包括國際上對人民幣升值的強(qiáng)烈呼聲、中美間不斷出現(xiàn)的貿(mào)易摩擦以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的大環(huán)境。而內(nèi)部原因主要有：不平衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和過快的增長、巨額的外匯儲備、中美間利差及通貨膨脹率四個方面。隨后,第二章又簡要分析了現(xiàn)有的外匯市場壓力對經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的不利影響。第三章利用Weymark對外匯市場壓力指數(shù)的一般定義中提出的構(gòu)造方程,通過TSLS估計模型對我國自2005年匯改至今的外匯市場壓力指數(shù)進(jìn)行測定,并分析了EMP變化走勢的深層次原因。第四章運用VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)對我國外匯市場壓力指數(shù)與利率、價格水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實證研究,系統(tǒng)深入地分析了影響我國外匯市場壓力的因素。研究結(jié)果表明,國內(nèi)利率及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對外匯市場壓力會產(chǎn)生正向的影響,而國外利率會產(chǎn)生反向作用。最后本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、外匯市場、貨幣市場三個角度探索性地提出了緩解外匯市場壓力的方法,以求促進(jìn)外匯市場和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康和諧發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, Chinese internal and external economic relations, capital flow pattern, many problems in the financial market environment changes and the internationalization of the RMB will affect the development of China's economy healthy and stable. Now, on the one hand, China's international balance of payments for many consecutive years of double surplus, economic growth increased dependence on foreign exchange reserves. The surge in the amount of the foreign exchange market pressures continue to increase. At the end of 2013, Chinese foreign exchange reserves reached US $3 trillion and 821 billion 315 million, the first in the world. On the other hand, in the current exchange rate system, the central bank was forced to put a large amount of base money raised the price level, the domestic inflation rate remains high. Under international economic imbalance inside and outside the Ministry, more and more people begin to concern the smooth development of association between foreign exchange market and the macro economy. How to optimize China in various complex situation The development of the internal and external market environment, better play the role of macroeconomic policy is an important challenge for the next period of time China facing the economy. Therefore, from two aspects of theory and practice of systematic research on the foreign exchange market pressure and its relationship with macroeconomic variables for macroeconomic decision-making and the future development and reform of the financial Chinese is of great significance. This paper first presents the background, and analyzes the theoretical and practical significance of the subject, then summarized and summed up the empirical and theoretical literature related propositions existing at home and abroad. The second part focuses on the meaning and measure model of exchange market pressure, combined with the development of China's economy. Pointed out that the internal and external reasons of the foreign exchange market pressure formation. The external reasons including the strong voice of RMB appreciation, between China and the United States are emerging The trade friction and the global economic development environment. And the internal reasons are: unbalanced economic development and rapid growth, huge foreign exchange reserves, Sino US spreads and inflation rate four aspects. Then, the second chapter briefly analyzes the adverse effects of the existing foreign exchange market pressure on the economy. The third chapter constructed by the Weymark equation put forward the general definition of the foreign exchange market pressure index, estimated by the TSLS model of our country since the reform of 2005 foreign exchange market pressure index has been measured and analyzed the deep reason of EMP change trend. The fourth chapter uses VAR model, impulse response function of China's foreign exchange market pressure index and interest rate, price level, the relationship between economic growth and other macroeconomic variables for empirical research, systematically analyzes the influencing factors of China's foreign exchange market pressure. The results show that the domestic interest rate and economic growth in the foreign exchange market pressure will produce positive effect, while the foreign interest rate will have a reverse effect. Finally, from the macro economy, foreign exchange market, money market three aspects put forward methods to ease the exchange market pressure, in order to promote the healthy and harmonious development of the foreign exchange market and the macro economy.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F124

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本文編號：1384259