本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國貨幣籃的穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易目標與績效分析——基于動態(tài)誤差修正面板模型的實證檢驗　出處：《上海經(jīng)濟研究》2012年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貨幣籃 匯率沖擊 進出口 PMG GARCH

【摘要】：實施貨幣籃政策后,匯率對進出口的沖擊需通過貨幣籃匯率中間價形成機制來傳導,貨幣籃是否穩(wěn)定了我國貿(mào)易進出口是檢驗匯率制度改革成效的重要依據(jù)之一。本文從貨幣籃減緩匯率對出口和進口沖擊的雙重目標出發(fā)分析貨幣籃的穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易目標體系,引入"貨幣籃作用系數(shù)"構(gòu)建貨幣籃減緩人民幣匯率對進出口沖擊的動態(tài)誤差修正面板模型,并采用混合組別平均法(PMG)較好地結(jié)合了國別短期異質(zhì)性和長期收斂的匯率影響特征。結(jié)果表明,貨幣籃減緩了人民幣匯率對進出口的沖擊,基本達到了其穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易的政策目標,然而其作用具有不對稱性,其長期作用比短期作用顯著,其對出口的長期作用略大于其對進口的長期作用,另外,人民幣匯率的彈性還不夠,并沒有發(fā)揮其調(diào)整進出口的作用,因此,我國有必要進一步增強匯率的彈性,促進匯率市場機制的形成。
[Abstract]:After the implementation of the monetary basket policy, the impact of exchange rate on imports and exports should be transmitted through the formation mechanism of the intermediate price of the currency basket exchange rate. Whether the currency basket stabilizes China's trade import and export is one of the important bases to test the effectiveness of the exchange rate system reform. This paper analyzes the stable trade items of the currency basket from the dual goal of mitigating the exchange rate impact on exports and imports. Standard system. This paper introduces the "function coefficient of currency basket" to build a dynamic error correction panel model to mitigate the impact of RMB exchange rate on imports and exports. The results show that the currency basket can reduce the impact of RMB exchange rate on import and export. Basically achieved its policy objective of stabilizing trade, but its role has asymmetry, its long-term effect is more significant than the short-term role, its long-term effect on exports is slightly larger than its long-term effect on imports, in addition. The flexibility of RMB exchange rate is not enough, and it does not play its role in adjusting import and export. Therefore, it is necessary for China to further strengthen the elasticity of exchange rate and promote the formation of exchange rate market mechanism.
【作者單位】： 上海對外貿(mào)易學院國際經(jīng)貿(mào)學院;
【基金】：上海市085工程建設項目(B-7111-11-118)的階段性成果
【分類號】：F832.6;F752;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言目前,我國實行以市場供求為基礎、參考一籃子貨幣進行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動匯率制度,從我國外匯市場的微觀結(jié)構(gòu)(圖1)來看,匯率波動的表征下貨幣籃在我國現(xiàn)行人民幣匯率形成機制中起著非常關(guān)鍵的作用,一方面,它是匯率中間價的參考單位;另一方面,貨幣當局根據(jù)外匯市場開

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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