本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)貨幣籃的穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易目標(biāo)與績(jī)效分析——基于動(dòng)態(tài)誤差修正面板模型的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)　出處：《上海經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2012年10期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貨幣籃 匯率沖擊 進(jìn)出口 PMG GARCH

【摘要】：實(shí)施貨幣籃政策后,匯率對(duì)進(jìn)出口的沖擊需通過(guò)貨幣籃匯率中間價(jià)形成機(jī)制來(lái)傳導(dǎo),貨幣籃是否穩(wěn)定了我國(guó)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口是檢驗(yàn)匯率制度改革成效的重要依據(jù)之一。本文從貨幣籃減緩匯率對(duì)出口和進(jìn)口沖擊的雙重目標(biāo)出發(fā)分析貨幣籃的穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易目標(biāo)體系,引入"貨幣籃作用系數(shù)"構(gòu)建貨幣籃減緩人民幣匯率對(duì)進(jìn)出口沖擊的動(dòng)態(tài)誤差修正面板模型,并采用混合組別平均法(PMG)較好地結(jié)合了國(guó)別短期異質(zhì)性和長(zhǎng)期收斂的匯率影響特征。結(jié)果表明,貨幣籃減緩了人民幣匯率對(duì)進(jìn)出口的沖擊,基本達(dá)到了其穩(wěn)定貿(mào)易的政策目標(biāo),然而其作用具有不對(duì)稱性,其長(zhǎng)期作用比短期作用顯著,其對(duì)出口的長(zhǎng)期作用略大于其對(duì)進(jìn)口的長(zhǎng)期作用,另外,人民幣匯率的彈性還不夠,并沒(méi)有發(fā)揮其調(diào)整進(jìn)出口的作用,因此,我國(guó)有必要進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)匯率的彈性,促進(jìn)匯率市場(chǎng)機(jī)制的形成。
[Abstract]:After the implementation of the monetary basket policy, the impact of exchange rate on imports and exports should be transmitted through the formation mechanism of the intermediate price of the currency basket exchange rate. Whether the currency basket stabilizes China's trade import and export is one of the important bases to test the effectiveness of the exchange rate system reform. This paper analyzes the stable trade items of the currency basket from the dual goal of mitigating the exchange rate impact on exports and imports. Standard system. This paper introduces the "function coefficient of currency basket" to build a dynamic error correction panel model to mitigate the impact of RMB exchange rate on imports and exports. The results show that the currency basket can reduce the impact of RMB exchange rate on import and export. Basically achieved its policy objective of stabilizing trade, but its role has asymmetry, its long-term effect is more significant than the short-term role, its long-term effect on exports is slightly larger than its long-term effect on imports, in addition. The flexibility of RMB exchange rate is not enough, and it does not play its role in adjusting import and export. Therefore, it is necessary for China to further strengthen the elasticity of exchange rate and promote the formation of exchange rate market mechanism.
【作者單位】： 上海對(duì)外貿(mào)易學(xué)院國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院;
【基金】：上海市085工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目(B-7111-11-118)的階段性成果
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6;F752;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言目前,我國(guó)實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度,從我國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)的微觀結(jié)構(gòu)(圖1)來(lái)看,匯率波動(dòng)的表征下貨幣籃在我國(guó)現(xiàn)行人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制中起著非常關(guān)鍵的作用,一方面,它是匯率中間價(jià)的參考單位;另一方面,貨幣當(dāng)局根據(jù)外匯市場(chǎng)開(kāi)

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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