本文關(guān)鍵詞：上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的研究　出處：《太原理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 上市公司 財務(wù)預(yù)測信息 信息披露 對策和建議

【摘要】：在不斷發(fā)展的資本市場中,會計信息發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用。為了降低融資成本、提高自身形象以及滿足投資者日益增長的信息需求,上市公司管理層越來越注重向投資者披露更多相關(guān)、可靠的信息。 財務(wù)預(yù)測信息作為會計信息中預(yù)測性信息的一部分,由于其在投資決策中的重要性和相關(guān)性,日益受到資本市場的關(guān)注。財務(wù)預(yù)測信息是反映上市公司未來的價值,具體包括公司的未來財務(wù)狀況、經(jīng)營業(yè)績和現(xiàn)金流量情況等的前瞻性信息。無論從投資者利益、上市公司自身還是社會資源的有效配置來講,上市公司真實、善意地披露財務(wù)預(yù)測信息具有重大的實踐應(yīng)用價值。但由于其不可預(yù)見性以及風(fēng)險性的存在,使得我國財務(wù)預(yù)測信息的披露存在很多不足之處。 為進一步完善我國上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息的披露,本文從美國財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的發(fā)展過程出發(fā),從披露原則、法規(guī)體系和法制建設(shè)方面進行了中美財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的差異分析。通過對比分析,可以提煉出美國在財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露方面的成功經(jīng)驗,包括完善的財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露體系、安全港規(guī)則的引入和民事責(zé)任制度的制定。這些優(yōu)點為我國的財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露提供了較好的參考和借鑒標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 與此同時,在我國上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露體系的框架下,本文以制造行業(yè)為例,隨機選取其中的106家公司作為研究對象,一方面,對我國上市公司年報中財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的總體情況、披露的連續(xù)性和地區(qū)分布進行分析；另一方面,對我國上市公司業(yè)績預(yù)告披露的總體情況、披露的特點、實際完成情況及預(yù)測誤差率進行分析。通過以上仔細(xì)分析,可以看到我國上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露方面的很多不足之處：第一,自愿披露財務(wù)預(yù)測信息的主觀能動性較差；第二,財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的規(guī)范性較差；第三,財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的質(zhì)量不高；第四,財務(wù)預(yù)測信息的披露未得到有效監(jiān)管。 在掌握財務(wù)預(yù)測信息理論基礎(chǔ)和遵循我國上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露基本原則的前提下,通過借鑒美國的先進經(jīng)驗并結(jié)合我國的披露現(xiàn)狀,提出了改善我國上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的對策和建議。首次,優(yōu)化財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的制度環(huán)境；其次,提高財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的準(zhǔn)確性；再次,加強財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露的審核和監(jiān)管；最后,增強投資者的自我防范意識。
[Abstract]:In the continuous development of the capital market, accounting information plays an increasingly important role. In order to reduce financing costs, improve their image and to meet the growing information requirements of investors, the management of listed companies pay more and more attention to disclose more relevant, reliable information.
As part of the information of accounting information in the financial forecast information forecast, because of its importance in the investment decision-making and correlation, has been the concern of the capital market. The financial forecast information is the future to reflect the value of listed companies, including the company's future financial situation, forward-looking information management performance and cash flow situation. No matter from the interests of investors, the listed company itself or the effective allocation of social resources in terms of Listed Companies in the real, good disclosure of financial forecast information has great practical application value. But because of its predictability and the existence of risk, making China's financial forecast information disclosure has many deficiencies.
In order to further improve China's financial forecast information disclosure of listed companies, this paper from the development process of financial forecast information disclosure of the disclosure principle, legal system and legal construction are analyzed the differences between Chinese and American financial forecast information disclosure. Through comparative analysis, can be extracted from the United States in the financial forecast information disclosure successful experience. Including the perfect information disclosure system of financial forecast, formulate safe harbor rules and the introduction of the civil liability system. These advantages for our country's financial forecast information disclosure provides a good reference and reference standard.
At the same time, in the framework of information disclosure system of listed companies' financial forecast, this paper takes the manufacturing industry as an example, one of the 106 companies were randomly selected as the research object, on the one hand, the overall situation of the information disclosure of financial forecast in China listed company's annual report, the continuity and the regional distribution of disclosure analysis; another in China, the performance of listed companies notice the general situation of disclosure, disclosure of the characteristics of the actual completion and the prediction error rate is analyzed. Through careful analysis, we can see the information disclosure of the many shortcomings of the financial prediction of listed companies in China: first, voluntary disclosure initiative is poor; second financial forecast, less normative information disclosure; third, the quality of financial forecast information disclosure is not high; fourth, the financial forecast information disclosure without effective supervision.
To grasp the financial forecast information theory foundation and basic principle of financial forecast information disclosure of Listed Companies in China to follow, by drawing on the advanced experience of the United States combined with the disclosure of the current situation of our country, put forward the improvement of the listed company's financial forecast information disclosure countermeasures and suggestions in our country. For the first time, optimize the system environment of financial forecast information disclosure; secondly, to improve the accuracy of financial forecast information disclosure; thirdly, strengthen the examination and supervision of financial forecast information disclosure; finally, to enhance investor awareness of self.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F406.7

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張雁翎,彭浩然;盈利預(yù)測誤差的契約性與上市公司盈余管理研究[J];財經(jīng)研究;2004年11期

2 徐宗宇;對盈利預(yù)測實證選題研究的思考[J];財會月刊;1998年01期

3 陳紅;;美國預(yù)測性財務(wù)信息披露制度及啟示[J];財政監(jiān)察;2002年11期

4 楊麗彬;陳曉萍;;我國上市公司盈利預(yù)測信息披露制度的起源與嬗變[J];財政監(jiān)督;2007年04期

5 秦玉熙;劉進;;自愿披露盈利預(yù)測的可靠性及其影響因素分析[J];當(dāng)代財經(jīng);2005年12期

6 蔣堯明;;上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息的真實性與虛假陳述研究[J];當(dāng)代財經(jīng);2011年11期

7 吳翔宇;;上市公司自愿性信息披露的動機分析[J];大眾科技;2006年01期

8 王春媛;張艷;;對預(yù)測性財務(wù)報告披露問題的探討[J];經(jīng)濟視角;2006年Z1期

9 葉少琴;胡瑋;;IPO公司自愿披露盈利預(yù)測:影響因素與準(zhǔn)確性[J];金融研究;2006年09期

10 劉建英;明哲;;上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息披露問題探討[J];交通企業(yè)管理;2008年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 譚軍;上市公司財務(wù)預(yù)測信息虛假陳述的監(jiān)管[D];江西財經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

，

本文編號：1367876