本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融發(fā)展與出口結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融發(fā)展 出口結(jié)構(gòu) 貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型 金融改革

【摘要】：傳統(tǒng)國際貿(mào)易理論認為，國家之間的資源稟賦差異以及技術(shù)差異構(gòu)成一個國家的比較優(yōu)勢。當(dāng)國家之間不存在資源稟賦與技術(shù)差異時，融資成本的差異將會對一國的比較優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)生影響。比較優(yōu)勢通過資源的重新配置決定一國在國際貿(mào)易中的分工地位，進而影響一國的對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。一國金融發(fā)展水平的高低作為一種比較優(yōu)勢，也能促進貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化和調(diào)整。金融發(fā)展對分工模式、生產(chǎn)模式以及出口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整有著重要意義。 根據(jù)比較優(yōu)勢原理，中國以勞動密集型產(chǎn)品出口為主，資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口增長緩慢。與此同時，傳統(tǒng)勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)缺乏創(chuàng)新，導(dǎo)致中國局限于具有比較優(yōu)勢的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)，難以轉(zhuǎn)變現(xiàn)行的貿(mào)易模式。如何提升貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，尋找新的比較優(yōu)勢成為“中國制造”面臨的一大難題。全球金融危機后，中國在外部需求減弱的條件下如何實現(xiàn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整與優(yōu)化將是中國經(jīng)濟能否實現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型的重要因素。隨著經(jīng)濟體制改革的深入，中國的金融發(fā)展取得顯著成效，金融改革不斷深化，金融體系逐步完善，金融工具日益豐富，金融市場的廣度和深度不斷提高。但是與貿(mào)易發(fā)展比較，中國的金融發(fā)展相對滯后。在經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的背景下，促進金融發(fā)展對出口結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變具有重要意義。因此，中國金融市場化改革將是出口結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整過程中至關(guān)重要的一環(huán)。 基于對以上問題的思考，本文首先對全球主要貿(mào)易國家的金融發(fā)展與貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)關(guān)系進行初步探討，得出一般性結(jié)論，即無論是金融發(fā)展總體水平還是金融中介與金融市場發(fā)展水平，其對一國出口結(jié)構(gòu)均有顯著積極影響。與此同時，從金融結(jié)構(gòu)與出口結(jié)構(gòu)之間關(guān)系來看，金融市場為主導(dǎo)的金融結(jié)構(gòu)更有利于一國出口結(jié)構(gòu)的升級與轉(zhuǎn)型。 其次，本文對以往學(xué)者的相關(guān)理論研究進行了歸納和梳理，并在此基礎(chǔ)上對模型進行修正和拓展，認為金融發(fā)展水平的提高能夠促使資本密集型產(chǎn)品出口增加。金融體系效率和質(zhì)量提高，導(dǎo)致資本密集型產(chǎn)品相對價格下降，產(chǎn)量增加，而勞動密集型產(chǎn)品的相對價格上升，產(chǎn)量下降。在開放條件下，表現(xiàn)為資本密集型產(chǎn)品出口的增加，勞動密集型產(chǎn)品出口下降。因此，金融發(fā)展水平的提高會促使一國資本密集型產(chǎn)品在出口貿(mào)易中比重增加，進而達到優(yōu)化出口結(jié)構(gòu)的效果。 再次，在理論模型建立的基礎(chǔ)上，通過構(gòu)建金融發(fā)展水平衡量指標與出口結(jié)構(gòu)指標，選取不同的實證方法對這一結(jié)論進行檢驗并得出相應(yīng)結(jié)論。在第四章中，分別采用靜態(tài)面板和動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型的廣義矩估計方法考察金融發(fā)展對出口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。結(jié)果顯示，金融發(fā)展對出口結(jié)構(gòu)影響的內(nèi)生性問題不容忽視，在強調(diào)金融發(fā)展影響作用時還需考慮金融結(jié)構(gòu)的影響作用。金融發(fā)展對一國出口結(jié)構(gòu)有顯著影響，一國金融發(fā)展水平的提高對出口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整與升級有著積極的推動作用，且金融發(fā)展對出口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響具有內(nèi)生性；一國的金融結(jié)構(gòu)對其資本密集型產(chǎn)品出口也有顯著影響，以金融中介為主導(dǎo)的金融結(jié)構(gòu)對資本密集型產(chǎn)品出口存在抑制作用，而以金融市場為主導(dǎo)的金融結(jié)構(gòu)則能夠促進資本密集型產(chǎn)品出口。因此，在一國出口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型與升級的過程中，內(nèi)生性問題和金融中介與市場的相對發(fā)展將會產(chǎn)生重要影響。 在第五章中，采用面板VAR模型考察不同金融發(fā)展指標對各個水平出口結(jié)構(gòu)的沖擊影響效果。結(jié)果表明，當(dāng)前中國出口企業(yè)的融資模式以金融中介為主，金融中介的發(fā)展最有利于低融資依賴行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展，但并不利于中國出口結(jié)構(gòu)由低水平向中高水平發(fā)展。同時，這一融資模式也決定了金融市場對中國出口結(jié)構(gòu)的沖擊影響不顯著。就金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長之間關(guān)系及影響而言，金融市場的發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟增長的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展更有利。 在第六章中，通過面板門檻數(shù)據(jù)模型的設(shè)定與檢驗得出金融發(fā)展對出口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響存在門檻效應(yīng)的結(jié)論。重點考察了股市發(fā)展、金融中介發(fā)展、金融發(fā)展以及金融結(jié)構(gòu)分別與低、中、高融資依賴行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)以及出口結(jié)構(gòu)總體水平之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系。分別選取伙伴國GDP增長率、伙伴國GDP總量和伙伴國人均GDP作為模型的門檻變量進行面板門檻效果檢驗和模型估計。股市發(fā)展、金融中介發(fā)展、金融發(fā)展和金融結(jié)構(gòu)對出口結(jié)構(gòu)總體水平的提升均有積極的促進作用。對于細分的低、中、高融資依賴行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)來說，以上四類金融發(fā)展指標對高融資依賴行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)的提升有顯著正向影響，對低融資依賴行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)有顯著負向影響，對中等融資依賴行業(yè)出口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響有正有負。這說明，金融發(fā)展能夠促進出口結(jié)構(gòu)由低級向高級轉(zhuǎn)型，有利于出口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和升級。 本文得出金融發(fā)展水平的提高能夠改善一國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)論，這一結(jié)論為中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整與轉(zhuǎn)型提供了新思路，那就是必須重視金融發(fā)展的重要作用。深化金融體制改革，防止虛擬經(jīng)濟過度膨脹，避免金融發(fā)展偏離實體經(jīng)濟需求，將優(yōu)化金融資源配置效率作為金融體系建設(shè)的根本目標，使金融發(fā)展更好地支持實體經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。 金融改革是中國經(jīng)濟改革的重要內(nèi)容。以金融體制改革引導(dǎo)中國經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型，促進經(jīng)濟由高速增長到平穩(wěn)發(fā)展是未來中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要目標。中國現(xiàn)有的金融體系以間接融資為主，能夠快速大量聚集社會資本，，但這種在傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式下形成的金融體制難以滿足現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的要求，長此以往，現(xiàn)行的金融體制將十分不利于實體經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，并拖累經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的實現(xiàn)。 隨著國家“十二五”規(guī)劃的深入推進，中國已經(jīng)步入經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的加速軌道，轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)前國家發(fā)展的重大議題。處于現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟核心地位的金融行業(yè)首當(dāng)其沖，金融轉(zhuǎn)型勢在必行。健全建立和完善金融體系，使之更好地服務(wù)于經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型，是當(dāng)前中國金融發(fā)展的首要目標。隨著中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的不斷調(diào)整，未來中國經(jīng)濟增速將逐漸放緩，利率市場化改革的推進將促使銀行業(yè)的利潤增長回歸正常水平。因此，銀行業(yè)在服務(wù)經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的同時必須加快自身的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整和轉(zhuǎn)型，秉承為實體經(jīng)濟服務(wù)的理念，優(yōu)化信貸結(jié)構(gòu)，大力發(fā)展小微金融、社區(qū)金融、綠色金融、消費金融等特色業(yè)務(wù)，通過差異化發(fā)展，支持和推動中國的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型。
[Abstract]:According to the traditional theory of international trade, resource endowment differences between countries as well as the technical differences between the comparative advantage of a country. When there is resource endowment and technical differences between countries, affect the comparative advantage of a country's financing costs. The difference will be comparative advantage through the redistribution of resources of a country's position in the international division of labor in the trade, and the influence on foreign trade structure of a country. A country's financial development level as a comparative advantage, but also can promote the optimization and adjustment of trade structure. The financial development of the division pattern, plays an important role in production mode and the adjustment of export structure.
According to the principle of comparative advantage, China in labor-intensive products, capital and technology intensive products export growth slow. At the same time, the traditional labor-intensive industry production technology, lack of innovation, traditional industries led to Chinese limited to have a comparative advantage, it is difficult to change the current trade pattern. How to improve the trade structure, find the new comparative advantage a "Chinese manufacturing" facing a major problem. After the global financial crisis, Chinese in weakening external demand under the condition of how to realize the adjustment and optimization of export structure will be an important factor in China economy can achieve transformation. With the deepening of economic reform, China financial development has made remarkable achievements, financial reform, financial and gradually improve the system, financial instruments have become increasingly rich, the breadth and depth of financial market continues to increase. But compared with the trade development, Chinese Financial development is lagging behind. In the context of economic transformation, promoting financial development is of great significance to the transformation of export structure. Therefore, China's financial market reform will be a crucial link in the process of export restructuring.
Based on the above issues, this paper on the world's major trading countries financial development and trade structure relationship are discussed. A general conclusion, namely whether the overall level of financial development or financial intermediaries and financial market development level, the structure of a country's exports have significant positive effects. At the same time, from the relationship between financial structure and export structure, the financial structure is more conducive to financial markets led to the upgrading and transformation of the country's export structure.
Secondly, the relevant theoretical research of scholars in the past are summarized and comb, and on the basis of this model was modified and expanded, that financial development can promote capital intensive products exports increased. The efficiency of the financial system and improve the quality, lead to capital intensive products relative price decline, increased yield, and labor intensive products relative price rise, yield decreased. Under the condition of opening up, showing increased capital intensive exports of labor-intensive exports declined. Therefore, financial development will promote a country to increase the proportion of capital intensive products in the export trade, and optimize the export structure.
Thirdly, based on theoretical model, through the construction of financial development level indexes and export structure index, different empirical methods were selected to test this conclusion and some corresponding conclusions. In the fourth chapter, the generalized moment respectively using static panel and dynamic panel data model to estimate the impact of financial development on export inspection method the structure of the endogeneity problem. The results show that the impact of financial development on export structure can not be ignored, in puts emphasis on the influence of financial development should also consider the effect of financial structure. Financial development has a significant impact on a country's export structure, a country's financial development has a positive role in promoting the adjustment and upgrading of export the structure, and the influence of financial development on export structure is endogenous; the financial structure of a country to its capital intensive exports also have a significant impact on gold The financial structure of financial intermediation for the existence of dominant inhibitory effect on the export of capital intensive goods, financial structure and financial market as the leading can promote capital intensive exports. Therefore, in the process of transformation and upgrading of the export structure of a country, the development will have an important impact on relative endogeneity and financial intermediaries and markets.
In the fifth chapter, using the panel VAR model to study the different indicators of financial development on the export of all levels of structure impact. The results show that the China export enterprise financing mode to financial intermediaries, financial intermediary development is most conducive to low reliance on financing industry development and export structure, but is not conducive to the development of the export structure by Chinese low level to the high level. At the same time, the financing model also determines the impact of financial markets on the Chinese export structure of the impact is not significant. In terms of the relationship between financial development and economic growth and the development of the financial field, city more favorable to the stable development of economic growth.
In the sixth chapter, by setting and test panel threshold data model that financial development has a threshold effect on the export structure. The conclusion focuses on the development of the stock market, the development of financial intermediation, financial development and financial structure respectively with low, high correlation between financing structure and export structure export industry relies on the overall level of partners were selected. The growth rate of GDP, total GDP partners and partners GDP per capita as a model of the threshold variable estimate the panel threshold effect test and model. The development of the stock market, the development of financial intermediation, promote financial development and financial structure of the overall level of export structure promotion has positive. For the breakdown of the low. The high reliance on financing industry export structure, the above four indicators of financial development has a significant positive impact on the high reliance on financing industry export structure upgrading, the low Financing depends on the industry's export structure, which has a significant negative impact, and has positive and negative effects on the export structure of the medium financing dependent industries. This shows that financial development can promote the transformation of export structure from low level to advanced level, which is conducive to the adjustment and upgrading of export structure.
This paper draws the conclusion that financial development can improve a country's trade structure's conclusion, this conclusion provides a new idea for the adjustment and transformation of China foreign trade structure, that is must pay attention to the important role of financial development. Deepening the reform of the financial system, to prevent excessive expansion of the virtual economy, avoid financial development from real economy demand, optimization the efficiency of the allocation of financial resources as the fundamental goal of the construction of financial system, the development of the financial development to better support the real economy.
Financial reform is an important part of China economic reform. The reform of the financial system to guide China economic transformation, promote economy from rapid growth to stable development is an important goal of future economic development. China China existing financial system dominated by indirect financing, can quickly gather a large number of social capital, but this form in the traditional mode of economic development. The financial system is difficult to meet the requirements of the present stage of economic transformation, the current financial system will be if things go on like this, is not conducive to the development of the real economy, and drag to achieve economic transformation.
With the national "12th Five-Year" plan in advance, China has entered the accelerated track adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, transformation has become a major issue for the development of our country. In the modern economic core of the financial industry to bear the brunt of the financial transformation is imperative. Establish and improve the financial system, so as to better serve the economy transformation, is a primary goal of Chinese financial development at present. With the continuous adjustment of the mode of economic development Chinese Chinese, future economic growth will gradually slow down, return to normal levels of growth promoting market-oriented interest rate reform will lead to banking profits. Therefore, at the same time, the banking industry in the service of economic structure adjustment must accelerate its strategic adjustment and transformation, adhering to the service of the real economy concept, optimize the credit structure, vigorously develop small and micro finance, community finance, green finance, The special business of consumer finance, through differential development, supports and promotes China's economic restructuring and economic transformation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832;F752.62

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