本文關(guān)鍵詞：現(xiàn)行匯率體制下人民幣匯率影響因素的實(shí)證研究　出處：《蘇州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣匯率 形成機(jī)制 影響因素 VAR模型

【摘要】：中國(guó)人民銀行在2005年7月21日宣布人民幣匯率制度的改革再次啟動(dòng)，且伴隨人民幣匯率的逐步市場(chǎng)化，人民幣對(duì)美元匯率主要呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定的升值趨勢(shì)，而與此同時(shí)，人民幣對(duì)其他主要貨幣的匯率則呈現(xiàn)有升有貶的狀態(tài)。面對(duì)目前匯率波動(dòng)的復(fù)雜情況，本文從實(shí)證分析角度將國(guó)民收入、通貨膨脹水平、貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率、外匯儲(chǔ)備以及實(shí)際利用外商直接投資金額等作為初始變量，構(gòu)建向量自回歸（VAR）模型，以現(xiàn)行的匯率形成機(jī)制為背景，對(duì)影響人民幣匯率波動(dòng)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行深入分析、以確定各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素與人民幣匯率波動(dòng)之間因果關(guān)系的強(qiáng)度。 通過(guò)建立VAR模型得出，在現(xiàn)行匯率體制下，GDP、CPI、中美利差、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量M2、國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備以及外商直接投資等變量是影響人民幣匯率波動(dòng)的長(zhǎng)期重要決定因素。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析得出以下結(jié)論：我國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)與人民幣匯率變動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)反向關(guān)系；我國(guó)通貨膨脹水平與人民幣匯率變化也呈現(xiàn)反向相關(guān)關(guān)系；中美利差、貨幣供應(yīng)量以及國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備變動(dòng)與匯率波動(dòng)之間呈正向關(guān)系；外商直接投資變化與匯率變化呈反向相關(guān)關(guān)系。最后，本文在實(shí)證分析找出人民幣匯率變化影響因素及強(qiáng)度的基礎(chǔ)上，從如何調(diào)整各經(jīng)濟(jì)因素促進(jìn)人民幣匯率合理變動(dòng)方面提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策，，并對(duì)未來(lái)人民幣匯率體制的改革進(jìn)行展望。
[Abstract]:In July 21st 2005, the people's Bank of China announced that the reform of the RMB exchange rate system had started again, and with the gradual marketization of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate mainly showed a stable appreciation trend against the US dollar. At the same time, the exchange rate of RMB against other major currencies has a state of rise and decline. In the face of the current complex situation of exchange rate fluctuations, this paper from the perspective of empirical analysis of national income, inflation level. Money supply, interest rate, foreign exchange reserves and actual use of foreign direct investment as initial variables, the construction of vector autoregressive VARs model, based on the current exchange rate formation mechanism as the background. In order to determine the causality between the main economic factors and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, the main economic factors affecting the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate are analyzed in depth. Through the establishment of VAR model, under the current exchange rate system, GDP / CPI, the spread between China and the United States, the broad money supply M2. Foreign exchange reserves and foreign direct investment (FDI) are important determinants of RMB exchange rate fluctuations in the long run. The following conclusions are drawn through empirical analysis:. China's GDP growth and RMB exchange rate changes show a reverse relationship; There is also a reverse correlation between the inflation level and the change of RMB exchange rate in China. There is a positive relationship between the interest rate difference between China and the United States, the money supply and the change of the country's foreign exchange reserve and the fluctuation of the exchange rate. Foreign direct investment changes and exchange rate changes show a reverse correlation. Finally, this paper finds out the impact factors and intensity of RMB exchange rate change on the basis of empirical analysis. This paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures from how to adjust various economic factors to promote the reasonable change of RMB exchange rate, and looks forward to the reform of RMB exchange rate system in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6

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