【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),能源需求不斷攀升,作為主要基礎(chǔ)能源產(chǎn)品的電力、煤炭行業(yè)面臨著越來(lái)越多的發(fā)展問(wèn)題。作為同一產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上的上下游行業(yè),煤炭行業(yè)與電力行業(yè)是唇齒相依的,而其生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)的冰火兩重天,使得煤電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的發(fā)展出現(xiàn)不協(xié)調(diào)特征。當(dāng)煤炭的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格處于高位,煤炭企業(yè)利潤(rùn)率高,盲目性擴(kuò)大投資,而發(fā)電企業(yè)則呈現(xiàn)“發(fā)電越多,虧損越多”的行業(yè)性虧損,投資熱情受限,加深了電力短缺；反之,當(dāng)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格下滑,煤炭企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)回報(bào)率低,投資熱情下降,盡管發(fā)電企業(yè)利潤(rùn)水平上漲,但是煤炭供應(yīng)的保障能力下降,其發(fā)展也受到限制。因此本課題從發(fā)電企業(yè)的視角,通過(guò)煤炭、電力企業(yè)的縱向一體戰(zhàn)略,來(lái)探索解決煤電之爭(zhēng),促進(jìn)能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 層次分析法是對(duì)定性問(wèn)題進(jìn)行量化分析的一種簡(jiǎn)便靈活實(shí)用的多準(zhǔn)則決策方法。本文以科學(xué)的、系統(tǒng)的、發(fā)展的觀點(diǎn)提出了以SWOT為基礎(chǔ)的發(fā)電企業(yè)進(jìn)行煤電一體化戰(zhàn)略中的內(nèi)外部因素綜合評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題,對(duì)其煤電一體化戰(zhàn)略決策具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文較深入地研究了煤電一體化戰(zhàn)略決策中的幾個(gè)重要方面,內(nèi)容包括：深入分析了發(fā)電企業(yè)面臨的外部機(jī)遇因素、挑戰(zhàn)因素,內(nèi)部發(fā)展的優(yōu)勢(shì)因素與劣勢(shì)因素；構(gòu)建層次分析模型,進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)；根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)決策等。首先,在深入分析了中國(guó)當(dāng)前煤電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及煤電之爭(zhēng)的深層原因基礎(chǔ)上,從企業(yè)、政府和市場(chǎng)角度論證了煤電企業(yè)縱向一體化的必要性,初步奠定了我國(guó)煤電企業(yè)一體化戰(zhàn)略的理論及現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。其次,在層次分析模型基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了該戰(zhàn)略評(píng)價(jià)的三級(jí)層次分析模型,目標(biāo)層為決策結(jié)果,準(zhǔn)則層則分機(jī)遇、挑戰(zhàn)、優(yōu)勢(shì)及劣勢(shì)四個(gè)方面,指標(biāo)層為各影響因素；在對(duì)有關(guān)專家進(jìn)行調(diào)查咨詢的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)專家打分結(jié)果得出綜合評(píng)估結(jié)論。再次,構(gòu)建戰(zhàn)略四邊形,得到其戰(zhàn)略向量,并利用戰(zhàn)略方位角、戰(zhàn)略強(qiáng)度系數(shù)來(lái)識(shí)別和判斷發(fā)電企業(yè)的煤電一體化戰(zhàn)略類型和戰(zhàn)略強(qiáng)度,進(jìn)而提出相應(yīng)的戰(zhàn)略支撐策略。最后,以河曲發(fā)電廠三期建設(shè)的縱向一體化戰(zhàn)略投資決策為例,運(yùn)用基于AHP的SWOT決策模型,進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,并得出了相應(yīng)的戰(zhàn)略支撐策略。
[Abstract]:With the continuous and steady growth of China's economy and the rising demand for energy, the coal industry is facing more and more development problems as the main basic energy products. As the upstream and downstream industries in the same industry chain, coal industry and electric power industry depend on each other, and their production and operation of ice-fire double days, making the development of coal and electricity industry chain appear uncoordinated characteristics. When the market price of coal is high, the profit margin of coal enterprise is high, the investment is expanded blindly, while the power generation enterprise shows the industry loss of "more power generation, more loss", and the investment enthusiasm is limited, which deepens the shortage of electric power. On the contrary, when the coal price falls, the profit return rate of coal enterprises is low, the investment enthusiasm drops, although the profit level of power generation enterprises increases, but the guarantee ability of coal supply decreases, its development is also restricted. Therefore, from the perspective of power generation enterprises, through the vertical integration strategy of coal and electric power enterprises, this paper explores the solution of coal-electricity dispute and promotes the coordinated development of energy industry chain. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a simple, flexible and practical multi-criteria decision-making method for quantitative analysis of qualitative problems. Based on the viewpoint of science, system and development, this paper puts forward the comprehensive evaluation of internal and external factors in coal-electricity integration strategy for power generation enterprises based on SWOT, which is of practical significance to its strategic decision-making of coal-electricity integration. In this paper, several important aspects in strategic decision-making of coal-electricity integration are studied in depth, including: the external opportunity factor, challenge factor, advantage and disadvantage factor of internal development; Construct the analytic hierarchy process model, carry on the comprehensive evaluation, according to the evaluation result to carry on the system decision-making and so on. Firstly, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the current development status of coal power industry chain in China and the deep causes of coal-electricity dispute, the necessity of vertical integration of coal-electricity enterprises is demonstrated from the perspective of enterprise, government and market. Initially laid the theoretical and practical basis for the integration strategy of coal and electricity enterprises in our country. Secondly, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model, the three-level AHP model of the strategic evaluation is constructed. The target layer is the decision-making result, and the criterion layer is divided into four aspects: opportunity, challenge, advantage and disadvantage, and the index layer is the influencing factor. On the basis of the investigation and consultation of relevant experts, the conclusion of comprehensive assessment is drawn according to the result of expert scoring. Thirdly, the strategic quadrilateral is constructed, its strategic vector is obtained, and the strategic azimuth and the strategic intensity coefficient are used to identify and judge the strategic type and intensity of coal-electricity integration in power generation enterprises, and then the corresponding strategic supporting strategies are put forward. Finally, taking the vertical integration strategic investment decision-making of the third phase construction of Hequ Power Plant as an example, using the SWOT decision-making model based on AHP, the empirical research is carried out, and the corresponding strategic support strategies are obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F272;F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2444747