【摘要】：近年來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速逐年下滑受到了人們的廣泛關(guān)注。一個(gè)重要的原因是,中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)密集型制造業(yè)正面臨著嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。一方面,2008年金融危機(jī)之后,歐美經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟導(dǎo)致中國(guó)出口市場(chǎng)外需不足。另一方面,隨著人口紅利的逐漸消失,勞動(dòng)力成本出現(xiàn)較大程度的上漲,導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)密集型制造業(yè)向印尼、菲律賓、越南等國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)移。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整將成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的重要途徑。本文采用Duranton (2007)構(gòu)建的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)超額調(diào)整率指標(biāo)考察了1999-2008年中國(guó)地級(jí)市的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整速度及其決定因素。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,樣本期內(nèi)中國(guó)各城市年均的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整速度快于轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)期的歐美國(guó)家。分地區(qū)的統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果表明,中西部地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整速度快于東部地區(qū)。進(jìn)一步地,本文還根據(jù)樣本期內(nèi)城市的規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)水平對(duì)城市進(jìn)行分類,發(fā)現(xiàn)低增長(zhǎng)型城市的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整速度快于高增長(zhǎng)型城市�；貧w結(jié)果表明,外商直接投資顯著地加快了城市的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,而國(guó)有資本則具有顯著的阻礙作用。初始企業(yè)平均年齡較高的城市后續(xù)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整速度較快。本文還考察了城市初始行業(yè)特征的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)在中西部城市中初始農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)人員占比的提高對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整速度具有正效應(yīng),而在東部地區(qū),科技服務(wù)業(yè)人員占比的提高促進(jìn)了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,說(shuō)明不同地區(qū)的城市在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的內(nèi)在機(jī)制上存在差異。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic growth rate has been declining year by people's widespread concern. One important reason is that China's labor-intensive manufacturing industry is facing severe challenges. On the one hand, after the 2008 financial crisis, weak European and American economies led to insufficient external demand in China's export markets. On the other hand, with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, labor costs have increased considerably, leading to the transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing to Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The adjustment of industrial structure will become an important way of sustained economic growth in China. Using the index of excess adjustment rate of industrial structure constructed by Duranton (2007), this paper investigates the speed of industrial structure adjustment and its determinants in China's prefecture-level cities from 1999 to 2008. The data show that the average annual industrial structure adjustment speed of Chinese cities in the sample period is faster than that of the European and American countries in the transition period. Regional statistics show that the industrial structure in the central and western regions is adjusting faster than in the eastern region. Furthermore, the paper classifies the cities according to the scale growth level of the cities in the sample period, and finds that the industrial structure adjustment speed of the low-growth cities is faster than that of the high-growth cities. The regression results show that foreign direct investment accelerates the adjustment of the city's industrial structure, while the state-owned capital plays a significant role in hindering it. The industrial structure adjustment speed of the city with the higher average age of the initial enterprise is faster. The paper also investigates the influence of the characteristics of the initial industry in the cities. It is found that the increase of the proportion of the initial agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery workers in the central and western cities has a positive effect on the speed of industrial structure adjustment, but in the eastern region, The increase of the proportion of scientific and technological service personnel promotes the adjustment of industrial structure, which indicates that there are differences in the internal mechanism of industrial structure adjustment in different cities in different regions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F427

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 張維迎,周黎安,顧全林;經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型中的企業(yè)退出機(jī)制——關(guān)于北京市中關(guān)村科技園區(qū)的一項(xiàng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2003年10期

2 蔣殿春;張宇;;經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型與外商直接投資技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2008年07期

，

本文編號(hào)：2277537