發(fā)布時間：2018-10-17 14:04

【摘要】：在國際油價動蕩及替代能源需求加大的形勢下，我國煤化工產(chǎn)業(yè)依靠明顯優(yōu)勢不斷發(fā)展，已經(jīng)成為我國能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的重要組成部分。隨著近階段國家政策的引導(dǎo)，傳統(tǒng)煤化工項目不斷轉(zhuǎn)型升級，特別是新型煤化工項目掀起建設(shè)熱潮，并逐漸成為煤化工產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展重點。煤化工產(chǎn)業(yè)是資源、技術(shù)、資金密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)，同時對環(huán)境、安全和社會配套等條件要求較高，對此類項目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價是項目成功的重要保證，對實現(xiàn)煤化工產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級、保障國家能源安全及國民經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展均具有重大意義。 本文主要的研究如下：首先梳理風(fēng)險管理相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)研究及項目風(fēng)險管理理論，對常用風(fēng)險評價技術(shù)進(jìn)行分析及對比，介紹了人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論及其在風(fēng)險評價方面的突出優(yōu)勢。其次分析煤化工項目現(xiàn)狀及其風(fēng)險特點，結(jié)合專家意見，，從社會環(huán)境、技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟、管理及自然五大方面對煤化工項目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險識別，進(jìn)而建立了由22個典型風(fēng)險源構(gòu)成的煤化工項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。再次，結(jié)合專家打分法，運用人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對煤化工項目風(fēng)險評價進(jìn)行實證分析，構(gòu)建了煤化工項目風(fēng)險評價的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。最后利用所建立的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對案例項目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價，得出其綜合風(fēng)險水平，并依據(jù)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系對各風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了分析評價。本文的實證研究結(jié)果表明，利用人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對煤化工項目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價是可行的，本文所建的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型可以有效地對煤化工項目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價并最終得出項目的綜合風(fēng)險水平。
[Abstract]:Under the situation of the turbulence of international oil price and the increasing demand for alternative energy, the coal chemical industry of our country has been developing continuously depending on its obvious advantages, and has become an important part of the energy industry of our country. With the guidance of the national policy in recent stage, the traditional coal chemical engineering projects have been continuously transformed and upgraded, especially the new coal chemical engineering projects have set off a construction upsurge, and gradually become the focus of the development of coal chemical industry. The coal chemical industry is a resource, technology, capital intensive industry, at the same time the environment, safety and social supporting conditions are high, the risk evaluation of such projects is an important guarantee for the success of the project, to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the coal chemical industry. It is of great significance to ensure the national energy security and the sustainable development of the national economy. The main research of this paper is as follows: firstly, this paper combs the risk management related literature research and the project risk management theory, analyzes and compares the common risk assessment technology, introduces the artificial neural network theory and its outstanding advantage in the risk evaluation. Secondly, it analyzes the present situation of coal chemical project and its risk characteristics, combines the expert opinion, carries on the risk identification to the coal chemical project from the social environment, the technology, the economy, the management and the nature five aspects. Furthermore, the risk evaluation index system of coal chemical engineering project is established, which is composed of 22 typical risk sources. Thirdly, combining the expert scoring method, using artificial neural network to carry on the empirical analysis to the coal chemical engineering project risk evaluation, constructed the coal chemical industry project risk evaluation neural network model. Finally, the comprehensive risk level of the case project is obtained by using the established neural network model, and the risk factors are analyzed and evaluated according to the risk evaluation index system. The empirical results of this paper show that it is feasible to use artificial neural network to evaluate the risk of coal chemical projects. The neural network model established in this paper can effectively evaluate the risk of coal chemical engineering project and finally obtain the comprehensive risk level of the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP183;F426.722

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