【摘要】：人造板是木材加工的主要工業(yè)產(chǎn)品之一,在家具制造業(yè)、建筑行業(yè)、裝修裝飾以及交通運(yùn)輸?shù)榷鄠�(gè)領(lǐng)域有著廣泛的應(yīng)用；隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和人口的增加,人造板消耗行業(yè)的規(guī)模越來(lái)越大,對(duì)人造板的消耗量與日俱增,因此人造板行業(yè)成為木材消耗的一個(gè)重要行業(yè)；在當(dāng)今中國(guó)森林資源日益短缺的情況下,加上建筑行業(yè)在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中有著舉足輕重的作用,研究人造板行業(yè)對(duì)木材的需求不僅對(duì)我國(guó)森林資源的合理配置有著重要作用,對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)未來(lái)的發(fā)展也有一定的參考價(jià)值,同時(shí)也為我國(guó)林業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)決策者制定相關(guān)政策和決定提供科學(xué)的參考依據(jù)。 人造板的種類有很多,主要產(chǎn)品有三種：膠合板、刨花板、纖維板；此外還有很多其他產(chǎn)品,如細(xì)木工板等。在人造板所有產(chǎn)品中,產(chǎn)量較大而又消耗原木的主要是膠合板和細(xì)木工板,其他板材,像刨花板和纖維板主要是以木材剩余物以及其他農(nóng)作物如秸稈和甘蔗渣等為原料,故本論文主要以膠合板和細(xì)木工板為研究對(duì)象。論文在總結(jié)了前人對(duì)中國(guó)的木材供需和人造板行業(yè)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)中國(guó)2003-2012年膠合板和細(xì)木工板的市場(chǎng)供需、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展變化進(jìn)行了分析和研究,得出了中國(guó)膠合板和細(xì)木工板供需的主要影響因素。最后依據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)彈性理論、供需平衡理論、系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論以及二次指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測(cè)方法,分別構(gòu)建了中國(guó)膠合板市場(chǎng)供需系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型、細(xì)木工板二次指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測(cè)模型,并且將國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度分為高速、中速、低速三個(gè)方案對(duì)2013-2017年未來(lái)5年膠合板和細(xì)木工板的供給量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果再用膠合板和細(xì)木工板加工原木利用率折算成原木需求量,從而得到我國(guó)人造板行業(yè)未來(lái)5年的木材需求量,并對(duì)相關(guān)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和討論。 模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,在高、中、低三種國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度下,2017年人造板行業(yè)木材需求量分別為5.2億m3、5.0億m3、4.7億m3,這對(duì)森林資源本來(lái)就比較匱乏的中國(guó)無(wú)疑是一個(gè)巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。該結(jié)果還表明在不同的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度下,未來(lái)5年我國(guó)人造板行業(yè)對(duì)木材的需求量整體呈上升趨勢(shì),但是在不同的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度下對(duì)木材的需求量略有不同。
[Abstract]:Wood-based panel is one of the main industrial products of wood processing. It has been widely used in furniture manufacturing, construction industry, decoration and decoration, transportation and other fields. The scale of wood-based panel consumption industry is increasing, and the consumption of wood-based panel industry is increasing. Therefore, wood-based panel industry has become an important industry of wood consumption. In addition, the construction industry plays an important role in the economic growth of our country. The study of wood demand in the wood-based panel industry plays an important role not only in the rational allocation of forest resources, but also in the rational allocation of forest resources in China. It also has certain reference value for the future development of our national economy, and also provides scientific reference basis for our forestry and economic decision makers to make relevant policies and decisions. There are many types of wood-based boards, the main products are three: plywood, particleboard, fibreboard; in addition, there are many other products, such as wood board. Of all the products of wood-based panels, plywood and wood boards are the main sources of production and consumption of logs, and other plates, such as particleboard and fiberboard, are mainly made from wood residues and other crops such as straw and bagasse. Therefore, this paper mainly takes plywood and log board as the research object. On the basis of summarizing the previous researches on wood supply and demand and wood-based panel industry in China, the paper analyzes and studies the market supply and demand of plywood and woodboard in China from 2003 to 2012, and the development and change of import and export trade. The main factors influencing the supply and demand of plywood and log board in China are obtained. Finally, based on the economic prediction theory, economic elasticity theory, supply and demand balance theory, system dynamics theory and quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method, the system dynamics model of Chinese plywood market is constructed. The quadratic exponential smoothing prediction model of the log board is used to predict the supply of plywood and log board in the next five years from 2013 to 2017. The growth rate of the national economy is divided into three schemes: high speed, medium speed and low speed. The forecast results are converted into log demand by using plywood and log board processing efficiency, and the wood demand of wood-based panel industry in our country in the next 5 years is obtained, and the related forecast results are summarized and discussed. The model forecast results show that under the three national economic growth rates of high, middle and low, the wood demand of wood-based panel industry in 2017 is 520 million m3, 500 million m3 and 470 million m3 respectively, which is undoubtedly a great challenge to China, where forest resources are already scarce. The results also show that the demand for wood in China's wood-based panel industry will increase in the next five years under different national economic growth rates, but the demand for wood will be slightly different under different national economic growth rates.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.88

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