【摘要】：作為提升國家科技競爭力和綜合國力的重要手段，加強大型復(fù)雜裝備的研制已被提升至國家戰(zhàn)略高度。大型復(fù)雜裝備的研制項目復(fù)雜性高、系統(tǒng)性強、一旦發(fā)生事故將造成嚴重后果，項目風險管理水平的高低已成為項目能否成功的主要決定因素之一。風險評估是項目風險管理過程中的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)，而風險測度是風險評估的重要環(huán)節(jié)，因此，風險測度對大型復(fù)雜裝備的研制項目風險管理水平起著舉足輕重的作用。由于大型裝備研制項目風險的多樣性、多層次性、潛在性和非線性等特征，大型裝備研制項目各風險因素之間呈現(xiàn)出網(wǎng)絡(luò)化、多層次化的結(jié)構(gòu)特征，故以往的直接將項目總風險分解為獨立遞階層次結(jié)構(gòu)，然后再進行綜合集成的風險評估方法不再符合實際情況，亟需探索新的風險評估與測度方法來解決大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目的風險測度問題。 首先，構(gòu)建大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目分析框架。分析大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目復(fù)雜性及風險特征，構(gòu)建項目多層次里程碑協(xié)同研制過程的MMCD（Multi-level Milestone CooperationDeveloping）網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)，并以此為分析框架，探尋大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目風險發(fā)生機理。 其次，研究大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目風險指數(shù)測度問題。為科學表征MMCD網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)中里程碑“事件樹”子系統(tǒng)風險指數(shù)，構(gòu)建主體-客體局中人極大熵博弈模型，利用各博弈方收益值的映射關(guān)系表征里程碑風險指數(shù)；分析里程碑“事件樹”子系統(tǒng)的協(xié)同工作關(guān)系邏輯本質(zhì)并設(shè)計連接結(jié)點，設(shè)計風險指數(shù)測度模型，，將里程碑風險指數(shù)進行集結(jié)從而得到整個研制項目的風險指數(shù)。 最后，設(shè)計大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目風險“譜系圖”。建立風險等級灰色聚類模型，將風險指數(shù)進行風險等級劃分；根據(jù)測算所得里程碑事件樹子系統(tǒng)風險指數(shù)設(shè)計項目風險“譜系圖”，據(jù)此識別項目內(nèi)部的高風險里程碑。 本文考慮項目不同層次粒度和制造鏈上流程關(guān)系，構(gòu)建基于多層次事件搜索的項目里程碑協(xié)同研制過程MMCD網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)，構(gòu)建大型復(fù)雜裝備研制項目風險指數(shù)測度模型，科學估算風險強度，有利于風險等級判斷與評估，能夠為風險控制提供科學依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:As an important means to enhance national scientific and technological competitiveness and comprehensive national strength, strengthening the development of large and complex equipment has been promoted to the national strategic level. The development of large-scale complex equipment is complex and systematic. Once an accident occurs, the level of project risk management has become one of the main determinants of the success of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of project risk management, and risk measurement is an important part of risk assessment. Therefore, risk measurement plays an important role in the level of risk management of large-scale complex equipment development project. Because of the diversity, multi-level, potentiality and nonlinearity of the risk of large-scale equipment development project, the risk factors of large-scale equipment development project present the structural characteristics of networking and multi-level. Therefore, the previous risk assessment method, which directly decomposes the total project risk into an independent hierarchical structure, and then carries out comprehensive integration, is no longer in line with the actual situation. It is urgent to explore new methods of risk assessment and measurement to solve the problem of risk measurement for large-scale complex equipment development projects. First of all, a large complex equipment development project analysis framework. This paper analyzes the complexity and risk characteristics of large-scale complex equipment development projects, constructs the MMCD (Multi-level Milestone CooperationDeveloping) network system of multi-level milestone collaborative development process, and uses it as an analytical framework to explore the risk occurrence mechanism of large-scale complex equipment development projects. Secondly, the risk index measurement of large complex equipment development project is studied. In order to represent the milestone "event tree" subsystem risk index in MMCD network system scientifically, the human maximum entropy game model in the subject-guest bureau is constructed, and the milestone risk index is represented by the mapping relation of the benefit value of each game party. The logical nature of cooperative work relationship of milestone "event tree" subsystem is analyzed, and the connection node is designed. The risk index measurement model is designed, and the milestone risk index is assembled to obtain the risk index of the whole project. Finally, the risk of designing large-scale complex equipment development project "pedigree diagram" is designed. The grey clustering model of risk grade is established, the risk index is divided into risk grades, and the "pedigree diagram" of project risk is designed according to the risk index of milestone event tree subsystem, according to which the high risk milestone within the project is identified. In this paper, considering the granularity of different levels of the project and the relationship between the processes in the manufacturing chain, a project milestone collaborative development process (MMCD) network system based on multi-level event search is constructed, and the risk index measurement model of large-scale complex equipment development project is constructed. Scientific estimation of risk intensity is beneficial to the judgment and evaluation of risk grade and can provide scientific basis for risk control.
【學位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F272.3;F416.4

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