【摘要】：衡量政府的經濟政策對一個行業(yè)的影響向來是經濟學也是管理學里的重要課題。醫(yī)藥改革是當前社會的民生熱點問題也是重點問題,而醫(yī)藥行業(yè)是世界上公認的最具發(fā)展前景、也是世界上貿易增長最快的國際化高技術產業(yè)之一。在人口預期壽命增長、醫(yī)保政策調整、科技進步和國家戰(zhàn)略定位的推動下,醫(yī)藥產業(yè)的規(guī)模迅速擴大,其增長速度遠高于同期全球經濟增長速度,已經成為全球支柱產業(yè)。醫(yī)藥行業(yè)作為非周期性行業(yè),與宏觀經濟周期的相關性不高,行業(yè)自身具有較強的抗周期性,但受行業(yè)政策以及一些突發(fā)事件的影響,行業(yè)整體的政策風險較大。可見,醫(yī)藥行業(yè)的特殊性對于研究政策效果具有重要意義。2013年8月22日,商務部正式通報：國務院正式批準設立中國(上海)自由貿易試驗區(qū),該自貿區(qū)圍繞國際經濟、金融、貿易、航運四個中心戰(zhàn)略任務,并提出試點設立外資專業(yè)健康醫(yī)療保險機構并允許設立外商獨資醫(yī)療機構,這是中國醫(yī)藥改革政策的一個重大轉變。除此之外,上海自由貿易試驗區(qū)為外商投資企業(yè)和民營企業(yè)提供更便利和更優(yōu)惠的物流、稅收和進出口條件,不可避免地對醫(yī)藥行業(yè)的相關產品和行業(yè)發(fā)展帶來深遠的間接影響。因此,本文擬采用事件研究法,以2013年中國內地醫(yī)藥行業(yè)上市公司的股票價格為研究對象,研究上海自由貿易區(qū)的設立對醫(yī)藥行業(yè)與資本市場總體之間、以及醫(yī)藥行業(yè)各子行業(yè)資本市場之間的股票價格的影響以及形成原因,并分別進行對比和分析,以此為依據(jù)了解當前重大政策事件對醫(yī)藥行業(yè)這一具有一定特殊性質的行業(yè)是否有效地影響,影響程度和時間跨度有多大。同時,本文還分析了這一政策對醫(yī)藥行業(yè)各子市場的影響及影響的顯著程度。研究結果表明,上海自貿區(qū)建立這一政策的發(fā)布事件對醫(yī)藥行業(yè)的股票價格有所影響,而且對不同子行業(yè)的影響程度不一致,但是沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)顯著的短期“政策市”效應。
[Abstract]:Measuring the impact of government economic policies on an industry has always been an important issue in economics and management. Pharmaceutical reform is a hot issue of the people's livelihood and a key issue in the current society, and the pharmaceutical industry is recognized as the world's most promising development, and also one of the fastest growing international high-tech industries in the world. Driven by the growth of population life expectancy, the adjustment of health care policy, the progress of science and technology and the national strategic orientation, the scale of the pharmaceutical industry has expanded rapidly, and its growth rate is far higher than that of the global economy in the same period, and has become a global pillar industry. As a non-cyclical industry, pharmaceutical industry is not highly correlated with the macroeconomic cycle, the industry itself has a strong anti-cyclical, but by the impact of industry policies and some unexpected events, the overall policy risk of the industry is greater. It can be seen that the particularity of the pharmaceutical industry is of great significance to the study of the effectiveness of the policy. On August 22, 2013, the Ministry of Commerce officially announced that the State Council has formally approved the establishment of the China (Shanghai) Free Trade pilot Zone, which revolves around international economy and finance. The strategic tasks of the four centers of trade and shipping and the establishment of foreign-funded specialized health insurance institutions on a pilot basis and the establishment of wholly foreign-owned medical institutions are proposed, which is a major change in China's medical reform policy. In addition, the Shanghai Free Trade pilot Zone provides more convenient and preferential logistics, taxation, import and export conditions for foreign-invested enterprises and private enterprises. Inevitably, the development of related products and industries in the pharmaceutical industry will have a profound indirect impact. Therefore, this paper intends to study the relationship between the establishment of Shanghai Free Trade area and the overall relationship between the pharmaceutical industry and the capital market, taking the stock prices of listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry in the mainland of China in 2013 as the research object. As well as the influence of the stock price among the capital markets of various sub-industries of the pharmaceutical industry and the reasons for its formation, and the comparison and analysis are carried out respectively. Based on this, we can understand whether the current major policy events have an effective impact on the pharmaceutical industry, which has a certain special nature, and how much the influence degree and time span are. At the same time, this paper also analyzes the influence and significance of this policy on the sub-markets of pharmaceutical industry. The results show that the issue of the establishment of this policy in Shanghai Free Trade Zone has an impact on the stock price of the pharmaceutical industry, and the impact on different sub-industries is not consistent, but no significant short-term "policy market" effect has been found.
【學位授予單位】：廣西大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.72;F752.8

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