【摘要】：近年來(lái)隨著世界主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)持續(xù)蔓延，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力。中國(guó)石油企業(yè)抓住這一有利時(shí)機(jī)，加快海外布局。然而外部環(huán)境錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜，局部地區(qū)沖突不斷；再加上自身海外運(yùn)營(yíng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)缺乏，，部分企業(yè)盲目冒進(jìn)，增加了中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營(yíng)的不確定性，一旦遭遇重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)于企業(yè)的影響將是致命的。因此，從企業(yè)自身長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展和國(guó)家能源戰(zhàn)略安全考慮，構(gòu)建中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營(yíng)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制已迫在眉睫。 本文將中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營(yíng)面臨的重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作為研究對(duì)象，以構(gòu)建風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制為研究重點(diǎn)，綜合運(yùn)用模糊數(shù)學(xué)、系統(tǒng)論、控制論、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警理論相關(guān)知識(shí)，通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外投資經(jīng)營(yíng)面臨的重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的剖析，歸納出重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的三個(gè)主要特征，進(jìn)而對(duì)這些重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)逐一進(jìn)行全面細(xì)致分析。通過(guò)構(gòu)建石油企業(yè)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系和多級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型，組建重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)響應(yīng)機(jī)制并設(shè)計(jì)出中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營(yíng)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制。最后實(shí)證分析了中緬油氣管道項(xiàng)目（緬甸段）運(yùn)營(yíng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)并提出應(yīng)對(duì)策略。 通過(guò)建立中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營(yíng)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制，企業(yè)即能有效識(shí)別和預(yù)控重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這對(duì)提升中國(guó)石油企業(yè)海外經(jīng)營(yíng)實(shí)力具有重要的借鑒和指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as the world sovereign debt crisis continues to spread, the global economic recovery is weak. Chinese oil enterprises seize this favorable opportunity to speed up the overseas layout. However, the external environment is intricate and local conflicts continue; coupled with the lack of overseas operation experience of some enterprises, some enterprises blindly advance, which increases the uncertainty of overseas operations of Chinese oil enterprises. Once they encounter major risks, The impact on the business will be fatal. Therefore, considering the long-term development of the enterprises and the national energy strategic security, it is urgent to construct a major risk warning mechanism for the overseas operations of Chinese oil enterprises. In this paper, the major risks faced by Chinese oil enterprises overseas are taken as the research object, and the key point of the study is to construct a risk warning mechanism. The relevant knowledge of fuzzy mathematics, system theory, cybernetics, risk management and risk warning theory is used synthetically. Through the analysis of the major risks faced by Chinese petroleum enterprises overseas investment management, three main characteristics of the major risks are summed up, and then the major risks are analyzed one by one. By constructing the index system of major risk warning and the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the major risk response mechanism and the major risk warning mechanism of overseas management of Chinese oil enterprises are designed. Finally, the paper analyzes the risk state of Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project (Burma section) and puts forward countermeasures. By establishing a warning mechanism for major risks in overseas operations of Chinese petroleum enterprises, the enterprises can effectively identify and control major risks, which has important reference and guidance significance for enhancing the overseas management strength of Chinese oil enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22;F272.3

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