本文選題：煤炭價格 + 價格形成機制　； 參考：《廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國是煤炭大國，煤炭資源很豐富。煤炭一直是我國的主要能源，在我國一次能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)中占主導(dǎo)地位，且格局在短時間內(nèi)難以發(fā)生根本改變。我國煤炭工業(yè)在過去十年間發(fā)展迅速，被譽為煤炭的“黃金十年”。在這十年間，，煤炭價格穩(wěn)步提升，直到2012年5月，價格開始持續(xù)下降。由于煤炭工業(yè)既是我國基礎(chǔ)能源的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)又是我國國民經(jīng)濟的上游產(chǎn)業(yè)，所以煤炭價格波動涉及面很廣泛，其價格波動不僅直接影響煤炭企業(yè)的供給，也將對下游各相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的成本和價格構(gòu)成影響，進而影響我國的物價、投資、消費和進出口，最終會對我國經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成影響。因此，研究煤炭價格及其價格形成機制是很有意義的。 本文先簡單介紹了一下煤炭和我國煤炭資源的狀況，闡述了煤炭資源在我國能源消費中不可動搖的主體地位以及煤炭工業(yè)現(xiàn)狀。 然后梳理了自建國以來我國煤炭價格形成機制的演變過程。我國煤炭價格機制大體可以劃分為三個階段，即完全計劃價格時期、價格調(diào)放時期和市場化時期。在研究了現(xiàn)在正處于的市場化時期的煤炭價格走勢之后，找出了影響煤炭價格的相關(guān)因素。 在對這些因素進行描述之后，建立模型對這些影響煤炭價格的因素與煤炭價格之間的關(guān)系進行了分析。本文研究的數(shù)據(jù)期間為2006年-2013年的月度和季度數(shù)據(jù)。由于是時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，采用的模型包括：單位根檢驗、E-G兩步法協(xié)整檢驗、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗以及線性回歸檢驗。 分析最后得出的主要結(jié)論為：中國煤炭市場市場化不足，供求變化不能完全反映價格變化；國內(nèi)煤炭市場的國際競爭力不足，對國際煤炭市場沒有話語權(quán)；煤炭價格的波動最終會影響我國整體的國民經(jīng)濟。并就這些問題提出了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:China is a big coal country, coal resources are very rich. Coal is the main energy of our country all the time, it occupies the leading position in the primary energy consumption structure of our country, and the pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in a short period of time. China's coal industry has developed rapidly in the past ten years and is known as the "golden decade" of coal. During the decade, coal prices rose steadily until May 2012, when prices began to fall. Because the coal industry is not only the leading industry of basic energy in our country but also the upstream industry of our national economy, the fluctuation of coal price involves a wide range of areas, and its price fluctuation not only directly affects the supply of coal enterprises. It will also affect the cost and price of the downstream related industries, and then affect the price, investment, consumption, import and export of our country, which will ultimately affect the economy of our country. Therefore, it is very meaningful to study the coal price and its price formation mechanism. This paper briefly introduces the status of coal and coal resources in China, expounds the unshakable main position of coal resources in China's energy consumption and the present situation of coal industry. Then it combs the evolution process of coal price formation mechanism since the founding of the people's Republic of China. The coal price mechanism in China can be divided into three stages, namely, the period of complete planned price, the period of price adjustment and release and the period of marketization. After studying the coal price trend in the market-oriented period, the related factors affecting the coal price are found out. After describing these factors, a model is established to analyze the relationship between these factors and coal prices. The data period of this study is monthly and quarterly data from 2006 to 2013. Because of the time series data, the models used include: unit root test, E-G two-step cointegration test, Granger causality test and linear regression test. The main conclusions of the analysis are as follows: the market of coal in China is insufficient, the change of supply and demand can not completely reflect the change of price, the international competitiveness of domestic coal market is insufficient, and there is no right to speak to the international coal market; The fluctuation of coal price will eventually affect the whole national economy of our country. Some suggestions on these problems are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.21

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本文編號：2076055