本文選題：工業(yè)化 + 城鎮(zhèn)化　； 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化水平快速提高,城鄉(xiāng)面貌煥然一新,但城鄉(xiāng)差距也呈現(xiàn)出擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì),城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)并未得到明顯改善,城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展依然任重道遠(yuǎn)。城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展不僅與政策投入、資源配置有關(guān),而且與工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化緊密關(guān)聯(lián),因此,有必要從學(xué)術(shù)角度厘清三者間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系�；诖�,本文以重慶市作為實(shí)證研究對(duì)象,將工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌納入同一研究體系,以期深刻揭示工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的影響規(guī)律和作用機(jī)制,豐富城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌理論,并為重慶市處理好工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的關(guān)系提供借鑒參考。 本文在充分梳理國內(nèi)外城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌理論成果并結(jié)合重慶市區(qū)域情況的基礎(chǔ)上,分別構(gòu)建了工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。運(yùn)用均方差權(quán)值法計(jì)算出各指標(biāo)權(quán)重以及工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的綜合得分,并分別對(duì)重慶市工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了客觀評(píng)價(jià)。文章通過構(gòu)建VAR模型和多元逐步回歸模型,定量測(cè)度重慶市工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的影響關(guān)系,得出如下結(jié)論： 第一,重慶市工業(yè)化對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展表現(xiàn)出負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,而城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌具有正向拉動(dòng)作用。格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)表明,城鎮(zhèn)化與城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌之間互為因果關(guān)系；工業(yè)化不是城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展的格蘭杰原因,而城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌是工業(yè)化的格蘭杰原因。此外,脈沖響應(yīng)分析表明,重慶城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展具有累積效應(yīng),即城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌受自身發(fā)展水平影響,并且這種影響在長、短期內(nèi)均呈正相關(guān)系；重慶城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌水平對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化水平的變動(dòng)具有高度彈性,二者交互作用強(qiáng)；重慶城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展對(duì)工業(yè)化的短期作用響應(yīng)明顯。 第二,表征工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化水平的各單項(xiàng)指標(biāo)對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展水平具有不同的影響效果。在工業(yè)化指標(biāo)系統(tǒng)中,工業(yè)增加值占GDP比重、單位GDP能耗指標(biāo)與城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌呈負(fù)向關(guān)系,而工業(yè)增加值增長速度、全員勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、工業(yè)企業(yè)綜合效益指數(shù)、重輕工業(yè)主營業(yè)務(wù)收入比例等指標(biāo)對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌起正向促進(jìn)作用。其次,在城鎮(zhèn)化系統(tǒng)中,二三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人員占總就業(yè)人員比重、城鎮(zhèn)人均GDP、城鎮(zhèn)每千人教師數(shù)量、人均道路鋪設(shè)面積等指標(biāo)對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌具有正向帶動(dòng)作用,而城鎮(zhèn)人均固定資產(chǎn)投資指標(biāo)與城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌具有負(fù)向關(guān)系。 第三,重慶市工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的影響是通過三大路徑實(shí)現(xiàn)的,分別是“結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換——效益提高”路徑、“城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展——就業(yè)增加”路徑、“制度改革——資源配置”路徑。其中,“結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換——效益提高”路徑是通過優(yōu)化區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、提高工業(yè)化效益來促進(jìn)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展的,這要求重慶今后要大力優(yōu)化工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),充分發(fā)揮工業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)村的帶動(dòng)作用,同時(shí)要發(fā)展農(nóng)村工業(yè)化,破解農(nóng)村產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化困境；“城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展——就業(yè)增加”路徑是指通過城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高和城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)人口的增加來帶動(dòng)城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展,重慶今后須著力推進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,加大城市轉(zhuǎn)移農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力力度；“制度改革——資源配置”路徑是指通過深化體制機(jī)制改革,逐步消除城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的制度障礙,科學(xué)配置城鄉(xiāng)公共資源,因此,重慶市需在土地、戶籍、財(cái)政、金融等方面深化改革,為城鄉(xiāng)資源優(yōu)化配置提供強(qiáng)有力的制度保障。 本文在指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建、變量選取和計(jì)量方法運(yùn)用等方面進(jìn)行了適當(dāng)創(chuàng)新,既確保了研究過程和結(jié)果的真實(shí)性,又能在一定程度上彌補(bǔ)以往研究的不足。與此同時(shí),本文只是從時(shí)間序列角度對(duì)重慶市工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌的關(guān)系展開了研究,并未對(duì)其空間分異特征進(jìn)行分析,因而還有較大研究空間。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , the industrialization and urbanization level of our country have been improved rapidly , the urban and rural areas are completely new , but the urban and rural disparity is not obviously improved , the urban and rural dual structure has not been obviously improved , the urban and rural dual structure has not been obviously improved , and the urban and rural integration development is still a long way . Therefore , it is necessary to clarify the influence law and the function mechanism of industrialization and urbanization on urban and rural integration , enrich the urban and rural integration theory , and provide reference for the relationship between industrialization , urbanization and urban and rural integration .

Based on the analysis of the achievements of urban and rural integration theory at home and abroad and combined with Chongqing ' s regional situation , the paper constructs the index system of industrialization , urbanization and urban and rural integration .

First , the industrialization of Chongqing has a negative correlation with the development of urban and rural integration , and urbanization has a positive pulling effect on urban and rural integration .
Industrialization is not the cause of the integrated development of the urban and rural areas , but the urban and rural integration is the cause of industrialization . In addition , the impulse response analysis shows that the integrated development of the urban and rural areas of Chongqing has the cumulative effect , that is , the urban and rural integration is influenced by its own development level , and the influence is in positive phase relation in the long and short term ;
The urban and rural integration level of Chongqing has high elasticity and strong interaction with the change of urbanization level .
The short - term effect of urban and rural development in Chongqing is obvious to the short - term effect of industrialization .

Secondly , in the system of industrialization , the industrial added value is the proportion of GDP , the energy consumption index of unit GDP is negative relation with urban and rural integration , and the index of industrial added value growth rate , total labor productivity , comprehensive benefit index of industrial enterprise and the proportion of main business income of heavy light industry plays a positive role in urban and rural integration .

Third , the influence of industrialization and urbanization of Chongqing on urban and rural integration is realized through three main paths , which are " structure transformation _ benefit enhancement " path , " urban development _ employment increase " path and " system reform _ resource allocation " path .
The path of " urban development _ employment increase " refers to the development of urban and rural integration through the improvement of the urbanization level and the increase of the urban employment population , so as to push forward the new urbanization process in the future , and increase the rural surplus labor force in the city ;
The path of " system reform _ resource allocation " refers to the gradual elimination of the system obstacle of urban and rural integration by deepening the reform of the institutional mechanism and the scientific collocation of urban and rural public resources . Therefore , Chongqing needs to deepen the reform in the fields of land , household , finance and finance , and provide a strong institutional guarantee for the optimal allocation of urban and rural resources .

At the same time , this paper studies the relationship between industrialization , urbanization and urban and rural integration in Chongqing from the viewpoint of time series .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F427;F299.27

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