本文選題：煤炭經濟 + 風險�。� 參考：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：煤炭是我國的主體能源，煤炭經濟的平穩(wěn)運行是保障國家能源安全的重要基礎�，F(xiàn)階段，由于產能過剩，下游需求乏力，進口低價煤沖擊等不利因素的影響，煤炭市場行情處于低位。但煤炭作為我國基礎能源的重要地位不可動搖，長遠來看，行業(yè)將持續(xù)繁榮。正是由于目前的艱難環(huán)境，煤炭經濟運行風險的研究顯得尤為重要。 本文以我國煤炭經濟為研究對象，采用實證分析和規(guī)范分析相結合、定性分析和定量分析相結合的方法，，對煤炭經濟運行風險進行了深入的研究與探討。首先界定了煤炭經濟運行風險的概念、目標，然后結合我國煤炭經濟運行現(xiàn)狀和運行機理，定性分析了煤炭經濟運行各影響因素間的關系，在此基礎上建立了基于供應風險、市場風險、資源環(huán)境風險和微觀基礎風險四個維度的經濟運行風險評價指標體系，進一步通過模糊思想將指標指數(shù)化，綜合運用熵值法和層次分析法構建了煤炭經濟運行風險評價模型。在此基礎上，運用評價模型從多個層次、多個角度對2000-2012年煤炭經濟運行風險展開定量評價。通過建立各指標之間的變量關系預測了2013-2020年煤炭經濟運行風險走勢，并結合情景分析了不同情景下風險的變化，研究認為：（1）2018年是煤炭行業(yè)的轉折點，此后可能進入新的黃金期，可能運行更加困難；（2）GDP增長率的高低影響煤炭經濟轉折點的到來時間；（3）能源結構變化過快，風險加大，并改變風險運行軌跡；（4）在供大于求的狀態(tài)下，進口量對煤炭經濟運行風險影響不大。最后，提出了我國煤炭產業(yè)經濟運行風險防范措施，從建立煤炭儲備基地、增加科技投入、建立需求預測系統(tǒng)等多個方面提出了具體對策與建議。
[Abstract]:Coal is the main source of energy in China, and the smooth operation of coal economy is the important foundation to ensure the national energy security. At this stage, the coal market is at a low level due to overcapacity, weak downstream demand and the impact of low-price imported coal, among other adverse factors. But the important position of coal as the basic energy of our country is unshakable, in the long run, the industry will continue to flourish. It is because of the current difficult environment, the study of coal economic operation risk is particularly important. This paper takes the coal economy of our country as the research object, adopts the method of combining the positive analysis with the norm analysis, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, carries on the thorough research and the discussion to the coal economy operation risk. Firstly, this paper defines the concept and target of coal economic operation risk, and then, combining with the present situation and operation mechanism of coal economy in our country, qualitatively analyzes the relationship between the influencing factors of coal economy operation, and establishes the supply risk based on this. The index system of economic operation risk evaluation in four dimensions of market risk, resource environment risk and micro basic risk is further indexed by fuzzy idea. The risk evaluation model of coal economy operation is constructed by using entropy method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). On this basis, the evaluation model is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk of coal economic operation in 2000-2012 from many levels and angles. By establishing the variable relation among the indicators, this paper forecasts the trend of coal economic running risk in 2013-2020, and analyzes the change of risk under different scenarios. The study shows that 2018 is the turning point of coal industry. After that, it may enter a new golden period, and it may be more difficult to run. The growth rate of GDP will affect the arrival time of the turning point of coal economy. (3) the energy structure will change too fast, the risk will increase, and the risk track will be changed. 4) under the condition that supply exceeds demand, the import quantity has little effect on the risk of coal economy operation. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to prevent the risk of the economic operation of our country's coal industry, and puts forward some concrete countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of establishing the coal reserve base, increasing the scientific and technological input, establishing the demand forecasting system and so on.
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.21

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