本文選題：乘用車(chē) + SUV　； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的加快,我國(guó)乘用車(chē)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了高速的發(fā)展,乘用車(chē)銷(xiāo)量從2003年的220.5萬(wàn)輛飆升至2013年的1638萬(wàn)輛。但是從2009年以來(lái),我國(guó)乘用車(chē)銷(xiāo)量增速基本處于下滑狀態(tài)。盡管乘用車(chē)保有量還有巨大的增長(zhǎng)空間,但是不斷下滑的增速令廣大投資者擔(dān)憂。也正是在這樣的背景下,本人想看看在乘用車(chē)行業(yè)能否找到結(jié)構(gòu)性的投資機(jī)會(huì)。 我們知道,汽車(chē)整車(chē)行業(yè)屬于重資產(chǎn)行業(yè),其業(yè)績(jī)推動(dòng)的主要因素是銷(xiāo)量和單車(chē)?yán)麧?rùn)。按照此思路,本文就汽車(chē)整車(chē)行業(yè)中的細(xì)分行業(yè)SUV進(jìn)行了深入的分析。 本文的行文結(jié)構(gòu)如下：第一章對(duì)研究目的、意義、內(nèi)容和方法進(jìn)行了大致的介紹。第二章對(duì)我國(guó)乘用車(chē)市場(chǎng)的整體發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行分析,同時(shí)通過(guò)同美國(guó)和韓國(guó)成熟的汽車(chē)工業(yè)相類(lèi)比得出我國(guó)SUV市場(chǎng)未來(lái)的發(fā)展方向。在此章中,我還將SUV對(duì)傳統(tǒng)乘用車(chē)的替代性進(jìn)行了分析。第三章主要對(duì)我國(guó)SUV市場(chǎng)的需求進(jìn)行了分析。本章主要針對(duì)首次購(gòu)車(chē)需求與再次購(gòu)車(chē)需求進(jìn)行了分析。第四章主要是構(gòu)建了SUV市場(chǎng)需求模型。在本章通過(guò)模型構(gòu)建和計(jì)算機(jī)編程實(shí)現(xiàn)未來(lái)幾年SUV市場(chǎng)需求的預(yù)測(cè),同時(shí)也可以印證SUV市場(chǎng)在未來(lái)市場(chǎng)有巨大的發(fā)展?jié)摿�。第五章主要�?duì)我國(guó)SUV行業(yè)的供給結(jié)構(gòu)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)狀況和發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行了分析。第六章對(duì)SUV行業(yè)中的重點(diǎn)公司進(jìn)行了分析。本章主要是分析了長(zhǎng)城汽車(chē)在我國(guó)SUV行業(yè)中的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)戰(zhàn)略和發(fā)展前景。第七章對(duì)全文的研究結(jié)論進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。 經(jīng)過(guò)本文分析,SUV在我國(guó)乘用車(chē)中的市場(chǎng)占有率在2015年到2017年之間會(huì)達(dá)到25%到30%的區(qū)間。因此,本人覺(jué)得需求旺盛、毛利率高的SUV行業(yè)是一個(gè)具有投資價(jià)值的行業(yè)。經(jīng)過(guò)標(biāo)的公司的分析,本人覺(jué)得長(zhǎng)城汽車(chē)是SUV行業(yè)中值得關(guān)注和投資的標(biāo)的企業(yè)。 本文的主要研究特點(diǎn)是對(duì)比分析貫穿全文和構(gòu)建需求預(yù)測(cè)模型。在對(duì)SUV的發(fā)展空間分析中,本文對(duì)比了美國(guó)和韓國(guó)SUV歷史發(fā)展軌跡。對(duì)我國(guó)SUV的需求分析中也借鑒美國(guó)SUV的需求來(lái)源。在對(duì)SUV單車(chē)?yán)麧?rùn)分析中,本文進(jìn)行了不同車(chē)型比較。在對(duì)我國(guó)SUV市場(chǎng)的分布上,本文也將其劃分為不同價(jià)格區(qū)間以進(jìn)行比較分析。在模型的構(gòu)建中,我們首先根據(jù)歷史成熟的乘用車(chē)市場(chǎng)需求預(yù)測(cè)模型搭建SUV的市場(chǎng)需求模型,然后借助matlab等軟件優(yōu)化模型參數(shù),實(shí)現(xiàn)SUV市場(chǎng)需求的預(yù)測(cè)。 本文的不足之處在于：由于數(shù)據(jù)的缺失性和難得性,本文在對(duì)我國(guó)SUV行業(yè)進(jìn)行分析所用數(shù)據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)還不夠豐富。如果能得到權(quán)威、豐富的數(shù)據(jù),本人對(duì)SUV行業(yè)的分析將會(huì)更加科學(xué)準(zhǔn)確。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization in China, the passenger car market in China has experienced a rapid development. The sales volume of passenger cars has soared from 2.205 million in 2003 to 16.38 million in 2013. However, since 2009, the growth rate of passenger car sales in China is basically in a state of decline. Although passenger car ownership still has a lot of room for growth, falling growth has worried investors. It is in this context that I would like to see whether the passenger car industry can find structural investment opportunities. We know that the auto industry is an asset-heavy industry, driven by sales and bicycle profits. According to this train of thought, this article carries on the thorough analysis to the subdivision industry SUV in the automobile entire automobile industry. The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter gives a general introduction to the purpose, significance, content and methods of the research. The second chapter analyzes the overall development of China's passenger vehicle market and draws the future development direction of China's SUV market by analogy with the mature automobile industry in the United States and South Korea. In this chapter, I also analyze SUVs as an alternative to traditional passenger cars. The third chapter mainly analyzes the demand of SUV market in our country. This chapter mainly analyzes the demand for the first car purchase and the second car purchase. The fourth chapter is the construction of SUV market demand model. In this chapter, model building and computer programming are used to predict the demand of SUV market in the next few years. At the same time, it can be proved that SUV market has great development potential in the future market. The fifth chapter analyzes the supply structure, competition and development direction of SUV industry in China. Chapter six analyzes the key companies in SUV industry. This chapter mainly analyzes the competition strategy and development prospect of the Great Wall vehicle in SUV industry of our country. Chapter seven summarizes the conclusions of this paper. Based on the analysis of this paper, the market share of SUVs in China will reach 25% to 30% between 2015 and 2017. Therefore, I think demand, high gross profit utility vehicle industry is an investment value industry. After the analysis of the underlying company, I think the Great Wall automobile is worthy of attention and investment in the SUV industry. The main research features of this paper are the comparative analysis and the construction of demand forecasting model. In the analysis of the development space of SUVs, this paper compares the historical development of SUVs in the United States and South Korea. In the analysis of the demand for SUVs in our country, we also draw lessons from the demand sources of American SUVs. In the profit analysis of SUVs, this paper compares different models. In order to compare and analyze the distribution of SUV market in China, this paper divides it into different price ranges. In the construction of the model, we first build the SUV market demand model according to the historical mature passenger vehicle market demand forecasting model, and then optimize the model parameters with the help of matlab and other software to achieve the SUV market demand prediction. The deficiency of this paper lies in: due to the lack of data and rare, the data used in the analysis of SUV industry in our country is not rich enough. If can get authority, rich data, my analysis of SUV industry will be more scientific and accurate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.471

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