本文選題：調(diào)味品行業(yè) + 行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率分解��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：主要內(nèi)容 本文主要以中國(guó)繼續(xù)推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化和推行人均收入倍增計(jì)劃兩大趨勢(shì)作為邏輯起點(diǎn),闡述了推動(dòng)調(diào)味品行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的因素以及行業(yè)未來(lái)的集中趨勢(shì),并得出了調(diào)味品行業(yè)存在消費(fèi)升級(jí)所帶來(lái)的投資機(jī)會(huì),然后從戰(zhàn)略、核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,財(cái)務(wù)三方面綜合分析和對(duì)比該行業(yè)內(nèi)的幾家上市公司并總結(jié)出行業(yè)龍頭海天味業(yè)所擁有的核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),最后揭示投資該公司存在的一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)點(diǎn)。 主要內(nèi)容 首先本文對(duì)食品飲料行業(yè)進(jìn)行細(xì)分成7個(gè)子行業(yè),并且從盈利性、成長(zhǎng)性、穩(wěn)定性、是否擁有心智資源和投資標(biāo)的5個(gè)維度對(duì)細(xì)分行業(yè)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,確立食品飲料細(xì)分子行業(yè)的投資價(jià)值；然后再將調(diào)味品行業(yè)進(jìn)行細(xì)分,并從增長(zhǎng)率、毛利率、流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)速度3個(gè)方面比較調(diào)味品細(xì)分子行業(yè),并且從生產(chǎn)工藝和消費(fèi)速度來(lái)解釋它們之間的差異；再次利用定性和定量的方式對(duì)調(diào)味品行業(yè)增速進(jìn)行了分析；此外,還引進(jìn)行業(yè)集中度指標(biāo)刻畫調(diào)味品行業(yè)現(xiàn)在的集中狀況以及未來(lái)的集中趨勢(shì)；最后從戰(zhàn)略、運(yùn)營(yíng)、財(cái)務(wù)3個(gè)方面分析調(diào)味品相關(guān)上市公司,揭示行業(yè)中龍頭企業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)以及優(yōu)勢(shì)的來(lái)源。 文章結(jié)構(gòu) 在食品飲料行業(yè)中受益于消費(fèi)升級(jí)的子行業(yè)較多,但并不是每個(gè)子行業(yè)都存在這樣的投資機(jī)會(huì),本文第一部分主要是通過(guò)是否擁有心智資源、盈利性、成長(zhǎng)性、穩(wěn)定性、是否擁有可投資標(biāo)的五個(gè)維度來(lái)橫向比較了食品飲料行業(yè)中七個(gè)細(xì)分子行業(yè)的投資時(shí)點(diǎn)和機(jī)會(huì),從而總結(jié)出調(diào)味品行業(yè)作為具有中國(guó)特色、消費(fèi)穩(wěn)定的行業(yè),在當(dāng)今大眾消費(fèi)的潮流下是最具有投資價(jià)值食品飲料行業(yè)之一 不過(guò)從普通人的消費(fèi)情況來(lái)看,調(diào)味品作為一種必需品早已滲透至千家萬(wàn)戶,其持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)性為投資者所擔(dān)心,為打消投資者疑慮,本文從兩個(gè)方面來(lái)分析調(diào)味品行業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)情況,其中本文第二部分主要是對(duì)調(diào)味品行業(yè)再進(jìn)一步細(xì)分,剔除了處于衰退期的味精行業(yè)增速,調(diào)味品行業(yè)被掩蓋的增速得以重現(xiàn),增速超出未剔除時(shí)。而本文第三部分則從調(diào)味品三個(gè)下游渠道來(lái)分析行業(yè)增速情況,其中餐飲渠道的調(diào)味品消費(fèi)主要是受益于城鎮(zhèn)化推進(jìn)過(guò)程中,城鎮(zhèn)居民社交用餐增加,經(jīng)過(guò)模型測(cè)算該渠道未來(lái)五年消費(fèi)增速在11%以上；而家庭渠道的消費(fèi)增加則源于傳統(tǒng)調(diào)味品消費(fèi)從有味向健康轉(zhuǎn)變所帶的產(chǎn)品升級(jí)和其他新型的調(diào)味品品類推出,根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布的城鎮(zhèn)居民不同收入階層消費(fèi)調(diào)味品支出數(shù)據(jù)推算,家庭渠道人均消費(fèi)調(diào)味品支出只少還存在30%的提升空間,人均收入倍增計(jì)劃將為調(diào)味品消費(fèi)升級(jí)提供購(gòu)買力；而在食品加工渠道消費(fèi)增速則來(lái)源于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中,人們生活節(jié)奏加快。綜合來(lái)看,未來(lái)五年調(diào)味品下游消費(fèi)以10%以上繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)將是大概率事件。 此外,調(diào)味品行業(yè)相對(duì)其他食品飲料子行業(yè)有其獨(dú)特之處。調(diào)味品行業(yè)生產(chǎn)區(qū)域分散和多品類導(dǎo)致了其行業(yè)集中度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于其他食品飲料子行業(yè),本文第四部分對(duì)調(diào)味品行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局和行業(yè)集中度低的現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行了分析,現(xiàn)今我國(guó)調(diào)味品生產(chǎn)相對(duì)落后,主要以地方生產(chǎn)為主,只有少部分現(xiàn)代化、全國(guó)化的調(diào)味品生產(chǎn)企業(yè),但是未來(lái)隨著行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和衛(wèi)生要求的提高,大量不合格作坊式企業(yè)將會(huì)被擠出市場(chǎng)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的加劇將會(huì)使得大量虧損的中小企業(yè)被迫退出行業(yè)、再加上龍頭企業(yè)擴(kuò)展計(jì)劃的實(shí)施,未來(lái)行業(yè)集中度將會(huì)大幅度提高。因此,行業(yè)未來(lái)的整合和并購(gòu)也將會(huì)是一個(gè)潛在的投資機(jī)會(huì)。 本文第五部分從行業(yè)層面分析下降到公司層面分析,對(duì)各家上市的生產(chǎn)醬油為主的調(diào)味品企業(yè)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析,其中海天味業(yè)作為調(diào)味品行業(yè)的龍頭企業(yè)所擁有的優(yōu)勢(shì)是其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手所難以企及,其擁有的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)主要在利用工藝和技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)保證產(chǎn)出高質(zhì)量的醬油；全自動(dòng)化的生產(chǎn)線和用料的選擇帶來(lái)成本上優(yōu)勢(shì)；專注調(diào)味品、醬油成為中國(guó)醬油第一品牌,在消費(fèi)者心中擁有物美價(jià)廉醬油的字眼這三個(gè)方面。這些優(yōu)勢(shì)為海天帶來(lái)持續(xù)不斷穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流和高于同行的盈利能力。 最后揭示投資海天味業(yè)存在的短期和長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其中短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)源于原材料采購(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手搶占中高端市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),前者由于白糖價(jià)格處于下降通道,因此原材料成本價(jià)格對(duì)生產(chǎn)成本的影響不大,而另外一個(gè)短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn),海天也已經(jīng)采取對(duì)策,推出海天“零添加”子品牌應(yīng)對(duì)中高端市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。而長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則在于公司品牌過(guò)度延伸和醬油消費(fèi)日趨飽和的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 創(chuàng)新之處 第一：在行業(yè)分析過(guò)程中,本文獨(dú)立構(gòu)建了如何評(píng)價(jià)食品飲料行業(yè)是否受益于消費(fèi)升級(jí)的評(píng)價(jià)體系,解釋了為什么投資調(diào)味品行業(yè)的理由。 第二：深刻的解析了調(diào)味品行業(yè),特別是除味精以外的調(diào)味品行業(yè)其未來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力,并且借助模型獨(dú)立測(cè)算行業(yè)增速。 第三：在公司分析層面上,獨(dú)到之處在于對(duì)海天味業(yè)核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的挖掘,從經(jīng)營(yíng)和財(cái)務(wù)上分析海天在產(chǎn)品質(zhì)和價(jià)上優(yōu)于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的原因,并且引入定位理論對(duì)海天品牌溢價(jià)進(jìn)行了分析和量化。
[Abstract]:primary coverage
This paper, based on the two trends of China's continuing urbanization and the implementation of the per capita income multiplication plan, expounds the factors that promote the growth of the condiment industry and the future concentration trend of the industry, and draws the investment opportunity brought by the consumption upgrading of the condiment industry, and then from the strategy, the core competitiveness, and the financial three party. It analyzes and compares several listed companies in the industry and summarizes the core competitive advantages of the industry's leading sea sky flavor industry, and finally reveals some of the risk points that exist in the company.
primary coverage
First of all, this paper subdivides the food and beverage industry into 7 sub industries, and compares the profit, growth, stability, 5 dimensions of mental resources and investment standards, and establishes the investment value of the fine molecular industry of food and beverage, and then subdivides the condiment industry into subdivision, and from the growth rate and Maori. Compared with the 3 aspects of the turnover rate of the flow assets, the fine molecular industry of the condiment is compared, and the differences between them are explained from the production process and the consumption speed. The growth of the condiment industry is analyzed by the qualitative and quantitative methods. And the future concentration trend; finally from the strategic, operational, financial 3 aspects of the analysis of seasoning related listed companies, to reveal the advantages of the leading enterprises in the industry and the source of advantages.
Structure of article
In the food and beverage industry, there are more sub industries that benefit from the consumption upgrade, but not every sub industry has such investment opportunities. The first part of this paper is mainly through the five dimensions of the mental resources, profitability, growth, stability, and whether there is a standard of investment to compare the seven finer in the food and beverage industry. The time point and opportunity of investment in the molecular industry concludes that the condiment industry is an industry with Chinese characteristics and stable consumption, and is one of the most valuable food and beverage industries under the current trend of mass consumption.
However, from the consumption situation of ordinary people, seasoning as a necessity has already permeated thousands of households, its continuing growth is a concern for investors. In order to dispel investors' doubts, this article analyzes the growth of the condiment industry from two aspects. The second parts of this article are further subdivided into the condiment industry, and are further subdivided. In addition to the growth of the monosodium glutamate industry in the recession period, the growth rate of the condiment industry is reappeared, and the growth rate is beyond the non rejection. The third part of this paper analyzes the industry growth rate from the three downstream channels of the condiment, in which the consumption of the condiments of the catering channels is mainly benefited from the urbanization process and the urban residents' social meals. The consumption growth of the channel in the next five years is above 11%, and the increase of the consumption of family channels is derived from the upgrading of the traditional condiment consumption from the taste to health and the introduction of other new types of condiments. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the consumption of seasoning expenditure in different income groups of urban residents has been issued by the National Bureau of statistics. According to the data, the expenditure of household consumption per capita consumption of condiments is only less than 30%, and the per capita income multiplication plan will provide purchasing power for the upgrading of condiment consumption; while the growth rate of food processing channels is derived from the pace of people's life in the process of economic development. In a comprehensive view, the downstream consumption of seasoning will be consumed in the next five years. More than 10% growth will be a big probability event.
In addition, the condiment industry has its unique features relative to other food and beverage industries. The production area dispersion and multiple categories in the condiment industry have led to its industry concentration far below the other food and beverage industries. The fourth part of this paper analyzes the competition pattern of the condiment industry and the moderate low concentration of the industry. The production of taste products is relatively backward, mainly with local production, only a few modernized and nation-wide condiments production enterprises. But in the future, with the improvement of industry standards and health requirements, a large number of unqualified workshop type enterprises will be squeezed out of the market. The intensification of competition will make the large and loss small and medium sized enterprises withdraw from the industry and add again. In the future, the future integration and merger will be a potential investment opportunity.
In the fifth part, from the analysis of the industry level analysis to the company level, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the seasoning enterprises which are mainly listed in the production of soy sauce. The advantage of the sea sky flavor industry as the leading enterprise of the condiment industry is difficult to reach the other competitors, and its competitive advantage is mainly in the use of technology. And technical advantages to ensure high quality soy sauce; the selection of fully automated production lines and materials bring cost advantages; concentrate on seasoning, soy sauce becomes the first brand of Chinese soy sauce, and there are three aspects of Chinese soy sauce in the consumer's heart. These advantages bring steady and steady cash flow and high to the sea. The profitability of the peers.
Finally, the short-term and long-term risks are revealed, in which the short-term risk comes from the risk of raw material procurement and the risk that competitors seize the middle and high end markets. The former is in a decline in the price of sugar, so the cost of raw materials has little effect on the cost of production. After taking countermeasures, the "zero added" sub brand of sea sky should be introduced to meet the competition in the middle and high end markets. The long-term risk lies in the risk of excessive brand extension of the company and the increasing saturation of soy sauce consumption.
Innovation
First: in the process of industry analysis, this article independently constructs the evaluation system of how the food and beverage industry has benefited from the consumption upgrade, and explains why the industry is invested in the flavoring industry.
Second: deep analysis of the seasoning industry, especially the flavoring industry except monosodium glutamate, its future growth momentum, and the use of model independent measurement of industry growth.
Third: at the level of company analysis, the uniqueness lies in the excavation of the core competitiveness of the sea sky flavor industry, the analysis and quantification of the premium of the sea sky brand from the management and financial analysis of the quality and price of the sea sky in the quality and price of the sea.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.82

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號(hào)：1992922