基于因子分析法的油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用研究
本文選題:油田企業(yè) + 運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn); 參考:《西南石油大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文
【摘要】:石油,被譽(yù)為工業(yè)的血液,在一個(gè)國家發(fā)展過程中占有舉足輕重的地位,為了保證我國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速穩(wěn)定地發(fā)展,首先要保證我國油田企業(yè)的健康、快速發(fā)展,這就要求油田企業(yè)必須有一個(gè)穩(wěn)定、健康的運(yùn)營環(huán)境,因此對(duì)油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究就顯得具有非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文的選題就定位在我國油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn),研究的問題是油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型的構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用。 在理論上,首先對(duì)油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義給出界定,即造成油田企業(yè)達(dá)不到預(yù)期運(yùn)營目標(biāo)的不確定性,或者影響油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)的那些消極的不確定性。即在油田企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)運(yùn)營目標(biāo)的過程中,由于其本身的不確定性,使運(yùn)營目標(biāo)可能無法按要求實(shí)現(xiàn),從而能引起損失的事態(tài)稱為油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這里所說的事態(tài)是一種概念思維形式,是指事情在進(jìn)展中,而結(jié)果是不可預(yù)料的一種局面。 在評(píng)估模型構(gòu)建上,首先確定了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的原則,通過分析運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)油田企業(yè)在財(cái)務(wù)、營運(yùn)、合規(guī)、QHSE、聲譽(yù)五個(gè)方面的影響,結(jié)合油田企業(yè)自身的特點(diǎn),確定了一套包括12個(gè)指標(biāo)的評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系,然后基于因子分析法構(gòu)建了油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型,確定了油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合因子得分計(jì)算公式。 在應(yīng)用分析上,首先分析了油田企業(yè)開展運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的必要性,然后闡述了油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理現(xiàn)狀,最后選擇X油田企業(yè)作為一個(gè)實(shí)例,運(yùn)用構(gòu)建的模型對(duì)X油田企業(yè)運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,通過對(duì)評(píng)估結(jié)果的分析,總結(jié)出X油田企業(yè)在運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理上存在的問題,由于油田企業(yè)存在一些特有的共性特征,通過項(xiàng)目調(diào)研和走訪,發(fā)現(xiàn)其它油田企業(yè)也存在同樣的問題,然后針對(duì)這些問題,提出了一些管控對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Petroleum, known as the blood of industry, plays an important role in the development of a country. In order to ensure the rapid and stable development of our country's economy, first of all, we must ensure the healthy and rapid development of our oil field enterprises. This requires that the oil field enterprises must have a stable and healthy operating environment, so the study of the operational risk of the oil field enterprises is of great practical significance. The topic of this paper is focused on the operational risk of oil field enterprises in China. The problem studied is the construction and application of operational risk assessment model for oil field enterprises. In theory, the definition of operational risk of oil field enterprises is firstly defined, that is, the uncertainty that causes the oil field enterprises to fail to achieve the expected operational objectives, or the negative uncertainties that affect the realization of the operational objectives of oil field enterprises. That is, in the process of oil field enterprises to achieve operational objectives, due to its own uncertainty, the operational objectives may not be achieved according to the requirements, which can cause losses of the situation known as the operational risk of oil field enterprises. The state of affairs here is a form of conceptual thinking, a situation in which things are in progress and the outcome is unpredictable. In the construction of evaluation model, firstly, the principles of evaluation index system are determined. By analyzing the impact of operational risks on the financial, operational, compliance and reputation of oil field enterprises, combined with the characteristics of oil field enterprises, A set of evaluation index system including 12 indexes is established, and then based on factor analysis method, the operational risk assessment model of oil field enterprises is constructed, and the calculation formula of comprehensive factor score of operational risk in oil field enterprises is determined. In application analysis, the necessity of developing operational risk management in oil field enterprises is analyzed, and then the present situation of operational risk management in oil field enterprises is expounded. Finally, X oilfield enterprise is selected as an example. The operational risk of X oilfield enterprises is evaluated by using the established model. Through the analysis of the evaluation results, the problems existing in the operation risk management of the X oilfield enterprises are summarized, because of some unique common characteristics of the oil field enterprises. Through project investigation and visit, we find that other oil field enterprises also have the same problems, and then put forward some management and control countermeasures against these problems.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F426.22;F272.3
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