本文選題：煤炭市場(chǎng)交易 + 運(yùn)行機(jī)理��； 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：煤炭是我國(guó)的主體能源，煤炭市場(chǎng)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行是國(guó)家能源安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的重要保障。隨著我國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)化改革的不斷深入，政府和企業(yè)都需要一個(gè)能夠?yàn)樗麄兲峁Q策依據(jù)的仿真平臺(tái)。但目前針對(duì)煤炭交易仿真的研究較少，因此本文從煤炭?jī)r(jià)格運(yùn)行機(jī)理、煤炭市場(chǎng)交易仿真模型設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)及調(diào)控政策設(shè)計(jì)三個(gè)方面展開(kāi)相關(guān)研究。 在運(yùn)行機(jī)理方面，本文首先對(duì)煤炭交易市場(chǎng)的涵義和構(gòu)成進(jìn)行了界定，然后，進(jìn)一步對(duì)交易主體的報(bào)價(jià)行為進(jìn)行分析，最后，從煤炭交易買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)和賣(mài)方市場(chǎng)兩種狀態(tài)下的博弈分析入手，探討煤炭交易市場(chǎng)價(jià)格運(yùn)行機(jī)理。 在仿真模型設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)研究方面，本文基于運(yùn)行機(jī)理，首先引入EMD-ARMA構(gòu)建短期預(yù)測(cè)模型，，并以環(huán)渤海動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格指數(shù)為對(duì)象進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，研究表明該模型預(yù)測(cè)精度較高，比較適用于煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的短期預(yù)測(cè)。同時(shí)，引入復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建模思路，構(gòu)建煤炭交易市場(chǎng)的仿真模型，該模型可實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)煤炭交易量、價(jià)、通道改變等多種情況的仿真。為了讓研究結(jié)果更具實(shí)際應(yīng)用性，本文基于對(duì)煤炭市場(chǎng)交易仿真模型的研究，利用地理信息系統(tǒng)（GIS）、數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)和決策支持系統(tǒng)等現(xiàn)代信息技術(shù)，研發(fā)煤炭交易市場(chǎng)可視化信息系統(tǒng)，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)煤炭市場(chǎng)交易的實(shí)時(shí)發(fā)布、預(yù)測(cè)和仿真等功能。 在調(diào)控政策設(shè)計(jì)研究方面，本文主要研究什么何時(shí)需要調(diào)控以及怎么調(diào)控。在確定何時(shí)調(diào)控時(shí)，通過(guò)研究煤炭?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行參照指標(biāo)的關(guān)系，確定煤炭?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù)的預(yù)警區(qū)間，以此作為政府進(jìn)行煤炭?jī)r(jià)格宏觀調(diào)控的參照指標(biāo)。在怎么調(diào)控方面，基于構(gòu)建的仿真模型，提出了煤炭?jī)r(jià)格調(diào)控政策的設(shè)計(jì)思路和方法，為政府進(jìn)行調(diào)控政策選擇提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Coal is the main source of energy in China, and the smooth operation of coal market is an important guarantee for national energy security and healthy economic development. With the deepening of China's coal market reform, the government and enterprises need a simulation platform that can provide them with the basis of decision-making. However, there are few researches on coal trade simulation, so this paper studies the mechanism of coal price, the design and realization of coal market trade simulation model and the design of regulation policy. In terms of operation mechanism, this paper first defines the meaning and composition of coal trading market, then further analyzes the bidding behavior of the trading body, finally, Based on the game analysis of buyer's market and seller's market in coal trading, the operating mechanism of price in coal trading market is discussed. In the aspect of simulation model design and implementation, based on the running mechanism, this paper first introduces EMD-ARMA to construct short-term prediction model, and takes the thermal coal price index around Bohai Sea as an example. The research shows that the prediction accuracy of the model is high. It is suitable for short-term forecast of coal price. At the same time, the modeling idea of complex network is introduced to construct the simulation model of coal trading market. This model can realize the simulation of coal trading volume, price, channel change and so on. In order to make the research results more practical, based on the study of the coal market transaction simulation model, this paper develops the coal trading market visual information system using modern information technology, such as GIS, database and decision support system, etc. Realize the real-time release, prediction and simulation of the coal market transactions. In the aspect of regulatory policy design, this paper mainly studies when and how to regulate and control. When determining when to adjust and control, the early warning interval of coal price index is determined by studying the relation between the coal price index and the reference index of macro-economic operation, so as to serve as the reference index for the government to carry out the macro-control of coal price. In the aspect of how to adjust and control, based on the simulation model, this paper puts forward the design thought and method of coal price regulation policy, which provides the decision basis for the government to choose the regulation policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TP391.9;F426.21

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