發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-07 10:33

  本文選題：煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 煤層氣抽采量�。� 參考：《太原理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：針對(duì)日益嚴(yán)重的能源危機(jī)和突出的大氣污染問(wèn)題,加強(qiáng)我國(guó)的能源自給能力,降低煤炭在一次能源消耗中的比例是解決困境的根本途徑。但是我國(guó)“富煤、貧油、少氣”的資源稟賦使得加強(qiáng)能源自給和降低煤炭消耗的雙重目標(biāo)難以同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)。在此背景下積極開(kāi)發(fā)新型能源成為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必由之路,因而包括煤層氣在內(nèi)的非常規(guī)能源的開(kāi)發(fā)受到了政府的高度重視。受益于煤層氣開(kāi)采技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和美國(guó)煤層氣商業(yè)化成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)的啟發(fā),我國(guó)的煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)也走上了商業(yè)開(kāi)采的道路。然而由于地質(zhì)條件等多種因素限制,我國(guó)煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展道路充滿曲折,前景并不明朗。在此背景下針對(duì)煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,對(duì)政策制定有一定的參考價(jià)值。 文章梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),認(rèn)為目前的產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究還是偏向于具體和微觀,中觀范圍的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究還較為缺乏。因此文章選取系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)這一系統(tǒng)性的研究工具作為主要工具,便于以中觀的視角剖析行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此外在數(shù)據(jù)處理過(guò)程中為了能快速準(zhǔn)確的得到結(jié)果,也應(yīng)用了SPSS這類數(shù)據(jù)處理軟件。 文章通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)當(dāng)前煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的分析,確定系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)建模的目標(biāo),劃分系統(tǒng)邊界,辨析要素間反饋屬性,并通過(guò)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的技術(shù)處理,輔助建立變量間數(shù)量關(guān)系,最終通過(guò)對(duì)模擬結(jié)果的檢驗(yàn)確定模型的準(zhǔn)確性,完成建模。利用建成的模型可以模擬潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響,通過(guò)觀察煤層氣抽采量的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)和極值能形象的看出煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)受影響后的發(fā)展軌跡,從而在此基礎(chǔ)上提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策與建議。通過(guò)對(duì)煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的研究和建模過(guò)程中的系統(tǒng)分析,文章選取天然氣價(jià)格,財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼水平,技術(shù)水平和氣權(quán)礦權(quán)矛盾作為模擬運(yùn)行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。將其分別賦予不同的值帶入模型,煤層氣抽采量曲線會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出不同的軌跡。通過(guò)分析曲線可以發(fā)現(xiàn)以上四種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素均會(huì)對(duì)煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生巨大影響,但是影響的機(jī)理不同,最終煤層氣抽采量的極值和曲線形狀也不相同。針對(duì)不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響,文章提出要提高補(bǔ)貼水平,加強(qiáng)技術(shù)投入和落實(shí)氣“隨煤走”的政策。如果不能平衡各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)間的關(guān)系,整個(gè)煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)將會(huì)被短板所拖累。
[Abstract]:In view of the increasingly serious energy crisis and the outstanding air pollution problem, strengthening our country's energy self-sufficiency ability and reducing the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption are the fundamental ways to solve the dilemma. However, the resource endowment of "rich in coal, lean oil and less gas" makes it difficult to achieve simultaneously the dual goals of strengthening energy self-sufficiency and reducing coal consumption. Under this background, active development of new energy sources has become the only way for the economic development of our country. Therefore, the development of unconventional energy sources, including coalbed methane, has been highly valued by the government. Thanks to the progress of coalbed methane mining technology and the successful experience of commercializing coalbed methane in the United States, our country's coalbed methane industry has also embarked on the road of commercial exploitation. However, due to the limitation of geological conditions and other factors, the development of coalbed methane industry in China is full of twists and turns, the prospects are not clear. Under this background, it is of practical significance to study the risk of coal bed methane industry, and has certain reference value for policy making. This article combs the domestic and foreign related literature on the industrial risk research, thinks that the present industrial risk research still inclines to the concrete and the microscopic, the meso scope risk research is still relatively lack. Therefore, the paper chooses system dynamics as a systematic research tool to analyze industry risk from the perspective of meso-view. In addition, in order to get the results quickly and accurately in the process of data processing, the data processing software such as SPSS is also used. Based on the analysis of the current coal bed methane industry in China, the paper determines the target of system dynamics modeling, divides the system boundary, discriminates the feedback attribute among the elements, and establishes the quantitative relationship between variables through the technical processing of the data. Finally, the accuracy of the model is determined by the test of the simulation results, and the modeling is completed. The model can be used to simulate the influence of potential risk factors on coal bed methane industry. By observing the changing trend and extreme value of coal bed methane extraction quantity, we can see the development track of coal bed methane industry after it has been affected. On this basis, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through the research on the present situation of coal bed methane industry and the systematic analysis of the modeling process, the paper selects the natural gas price, the financial subsidy level, the technical level and the gas right mining right contradiction as the risk factors of the simulation operation. When different values are assigned to the model, the extraction rate curve of coalbed methane will show different trajectories. By analyzing the curve, we can find that the above four risk factors will have a great impact on the coalbed methane industry, but the mechanism of the influence is different, and the extreme value and the shape of the curve of the final coalbed methane extraction amount are also different. In view of different risk influence, this paper puts forward the policy of raising subsidy level, strengthening technical input and carrying out gas "follow coal" policy. If the risk is not balanced, the entire CBM industry will be dragged down by the plate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：N941.3;F426.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉燕群;曾小紅;方佳;;海南香蕉產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及預(yù)警對(duì)策研究[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2011年18期

2 晏國(guó)菀;朱丹;;宏觀調(diào)控下的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)實(shí)證分析[J];重慶大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2010年02期

3 陸大道;關(guān)于地理學(xué)的“人-地系統(tǒng)”理論研究[J];地理研究;2002年02期

4 陳泮勤;地球系統(tǒng)科學(xué)的發(fā)展與展望[J];地球科學(xué)進(jìn)展;2003年06期

5 丘訓(xùn)利;;煤礦企業(yè)并購(gòu)中的法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及應(yīng)對(duì)措施[J];法制與社會(huì);2010年05期

6 張鐵男;羅曉梅;;產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析及其戰(zhàn)略環(huán)節(jié)的確定研究[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2005年06期

7 汪立忠,陳正夫,陸雍森;突發(fā)性環(huán)境污染事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)展[J];環(huán)境科學(xué)進(jìn)展;1998年03期

8 唐毅南;陳平;;群體動(dòng)力學(xué)和金融危機(jī)的預(yù)測(cè)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2010年06期

9 王其藩,李旭;從系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)觀點(diǎn)看社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的政策作用機(jī)制與優(yōu)化[J];科技導(dǎo)報(bào);2004年05期

10 鐘永光;錢穎;于慶東;杜文泉;;系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)在國(guó)內(nèi)外的發(fā)展歷程與未來(lái)發(fā)展方向[J];河南科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2006年04期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 周婷;認(rèn)同視野中大學(xué)生個(gè)體組織化研究[D];南昌大學(xué);2011年

2 郭韜;基于復(fù)雜性理論的企業(yè)組織創(chuàng)新研究[D];哈爾濱工程大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號(hào)：1856576